最近有太多关于独立发电厂的负面消息，说得最多的当然是政府要向独立发电厂征收的暴利税。既然政府已经公布了暴利税是以独立发电厂的税息前盈利除以净资产（EBIT/net asset），而TANJONG也宣布了它可能每年必须支付高达RM70m的暴利税，就来预估一下TANJONG FY09的盈利吧。
以政府的ROA计算法作为依据，TANJONG在大马的三个独立发电厂Telok Gong, Pahlawan和Panglima的ROA为50%，19%与19%。这相等于RM85m的暴利税。
又，Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修，这将需要大约最高RM80m的维修费。
假设TANJONG的博彩业，休闲业与其它业务的PBIT可维持与FY2008年同样的赚利，即RM229m，-RM59m与RM43m。至于独立发电厂，假设大马的EBIT也跟去年一样，维持在RM439m，扣除掉Panglima的维修费用RM80m，剩下RM359m。同样的，假设埃及的发电厂也维持同样的赚副，即RM288m。
Pendekar Energy在1QFY09里贡献了RM77m与RM12m（归纳为联营公司）的EBIT，假设此赚副可维持到第四季，那Pendekar Energy的EBIT将为RM308m加RM48m。
将以上EBIT全部加起来，TANJONG FY2009的EBIT可达到RM1.2b。扣除掉利息支付与税务，净盈利大约为RM669m。再扣掉RM85m必须支付的暴利税，还剩RM584m。必须一提的是此净盈利并没有加入RM62m来自卖掉英国广播公司的一次过盈利。拿此净利除于TANJONG流通在外403.256m的股票，每股盈余为RM1.45。以上星期五TANJONG的闭市价RM12.30来计算的话，本益比为8.5，净股息率为5.7%。
TANJONG FY2004至FY2008的本益比界于9到15之间。假设TANJONG的本益比可以来到12，其股价应可来到RM17.40。
当然，还有一些风险没计算在内，如：
*TANJONG的盈利不如预测，包括Tropical Islands Resort的亏损广大、独立发电厂的开销过大与盈利减少、派彩率偏高。
*PPA的合约从新谈判，赚利被逼调低。
*暴利税比预算来得还要高。
The Edge
09-07-08: Tanjong: Buffeted by windfall tax uncertainties Tanjong plc's (RM12.20) share price has taken a beating of late. This can be attributed, in part, to weaker sentiment for the broader market. Growing concerns for the global economy as well as domestic political sabre rattling have certainly worried the market.
But perhaps even more unsettling is the government's recently announced windfall tax on independent power producers. A tax of 30% is to be charged on any excess return of assets over the threshold of 9%.
Based on the formula, Tanjong will have to pay up to RM80-RM90 million a year in windfall tax, on top of existing corporate taxes. The government has yet to fix an implementation date for the payment.
Based on our forecast, the tax will shave about 6%-11% off our earnings estimates for FYJan09-FY10. Whilst the absolute quantum is still manageable, it raises many questions about the viability of future power projects in the country. At the very least, it would certainly hurt future investments in the sector.
The development has shaken investor confidence in power companies, previously thought to be relatively defensive investments. Local investors may sit on the sidelines and wait to see how the windfall tax will eventually unfold.
But foreign investors have far less qualms about reducing their exposure. Tanjong had relatively high foreign shareholding of about 42% at end-May. Its share price has fallen from a high of RM19.90 about this time last year to the current RM12.20.
Trading at 8.3 times P/E with 6.1% net yield Assuming a half-year windfall tax impact in the current financial year, Tanjong's net profit will be adjusted to about RM594 million, including one-off investment gains of RM62 million. That's still up from RM554.5 million in FY08. Earnings should increase further to some RM622 million in FY10 or 154.3 sen per share.
Thus, Tanjong is trading at fairly attractive valuations of roughly 8.3 and 7.9 times our estimated earnings for FY09-FY10. Plus, we expect the company will continue to pay relatively generous dividends. Tanjong shares will trade ex-entitlement for a first interim dividend of 17.5 sen per share on July 16.
We estimate net dividends to total RM1 per share for FY09. That would earn shareholders a higher-than-market average net yield of 6.1%.
Nonetheless, investors may well stay away from power companies, at least for the near term. It is likely that further discussions will take place between the government and affected power companies.
Diversification of earnings base Positively, Tanjong has diversified its earnings base over the past few years. Contributions from the company's power assets overseas are estimated to account for about half of total power earnings.
Meanwhile, the rest of its businesses are expected to deliver steady earnings, going forward.
The company's gaming business generates good cash flow annually. Rising inflationary pressures may see slower sales per draw growth as consumer spending softens.
However, the gaming industry as a whole is expected to remain fairly resilient. We expect sales per draw to grow by roughly 3%-4% annually.
The Tropical Islands resort in Germany fared well in 1QFY09. Losses narrowed to RM2.2 million - down from RM10.2 million in 1QFY08 - on the back of higher visitor numbers and average spending. Net losses should narrow in the current year compared to FY08.
In short, we continue to like Tanjong's valuations and fundamentals, but the stock may not recover strongly in the near term, at least until uncertainties over the windfall tax are resolved.
The Star
Friday July 18, 2008
Tanjong to fork out RM70mil a year for windfall tax
KUALA LUMPUR: Based on its current earnings, Tanjong plc expects to fork out about RM70mil per year on windfall tax which was imposed recently on independent power producers (IPPs).
Chairman Datuk Robert Cheim said the windfall tax imposed by the Government would certainly have an impact on the company and all IPPs in the country.
“The tax also has an impact on the bond market. We have appealed to the Government and are waiting for the outcome. We hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the group’s AGM yesterday.
Last month, the Government announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets for IPPs effective July 1.
For the financial year ended Jan 31, Tanjong recorded a net profit of RM554.46mil on revenue of RM2.72bil.
On Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s call for power-purchase agreement renegotiations, Cheim said Tanjong was prepared to enter into negotiations after the windfall tax issue was resolved.
Meanwhile, he said the group would continuously evaluate opportunities for international expansion in the power-generation business via acquisition as a means to boost earnings.
“We are certainly buying more power assets. We want to grow more efficient and get economies of scale with our strategy,” he said, adding that the power sector would remain the group’s key contributor to revenue.
The group is currently looking at both greenfield and brownfield investment opportunities in the Middle East, Africa, India and South Asia.
Cheim said the acquisition of seven Globeleq Ltd power plants in Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka last November had immediate contribution to its revenue.
Tanjong wholly-owned subsidiary Powertek Bhd's power plant in Telok Gong, Malacca.
Tanjong currently has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.
On the progress of the group’s Tropical Islands project in Germany, Cheim said there were some improvements in operational efficiency and revenue-generation capacity.
“However, the longer-term prospects of Tropical Islands hinge on successfully attracting visitors from a wider target market and the availability of adequate accommodation for long distance travellers to enjoy the whole suite of offerings at Tropical Islands,” he said.
Tanjong was in advanced stages of negotiations with third parties willing to independently finance the development of accommodation facilities and market them internationally, he said.
“Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we hope to conclude these before the end of the year,” Cheim said.
The Edge
18-07-2008: Tanjong expects to incur RM70m per annum in windfall taxes KUALA LUMPUR: Tanjong plc may have to pay an estimated RM70 million per annum in windfall taxes but it remains confident that its power division will continue to be a key contributor to the group, said its chairman Datuk Robert Cheim.
He said the imposition of windfall tax had an impact on the company and all independent power producers (IPPs) in the country.
“It has an impact on the bond market as well. We have appealed to the government and hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the company’s AGM here yesterday.
The Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008, which came into effect on July 1, may also see a downgrade of bonds as the value of ringgit bonds and notes issued by IPPs is estimated at RM20 billion as of 2006.
A major cause of concern is an immediate adverse effect on the financial ability of the IPPs to meet loan obligations to their financiers and bondholders. The windfall tax will be 30% of earnings before interest and tax that are above the 9% threshold on return on assets.
In a statement, Cheim said the relevant appeals had been made by the Association of IPPs to the government. He said Tanjong was prepared to hold discussions with the government and Tenaga Nasional Bhd for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreement following the resolution of the issues relating to the windfall tax.
Cheim said Tanjong was on track with its strategy to be a major regional power company, with the strong contributions from its overseas power generation business segment. The group now has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.
“Our overseas business has grown significantly with the successful acquisition of seven Globeleq power plants (in the year ended Jan 31, 2008). These power plants have immediately contributed to our revenue and will be key to the group’s future earnings as they continue to provide us with strong recurring cash flows,” he said.
写于七月十八日二零零八年
Saturday, August 30, 2008
Saturday, August 23, 2008
彩马发电（四）
看到TANJONG的董事出售持股，虽不是很多，但还是必须注意，在此作个记录。
星洲
丹絨非執行董事邱德才出售0.0372%持股
2008-07-11
（吉隆坡）丹絨（TANJONG）非執行董事邱德才（譯音）在本月7日及9日通過公開市場，分別以每股12令吉54.18仙和12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士總共15萬股，或佔該公司總共0.0372%股權。
該公司發表文告說，邱氏在本月7日，以每股12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士共6500股，或佔該公司0.0016%股權。
與此同時，他在7月9日則以每股12令吉54.18仙，售該公司每股面值7.5便士共14萬3500股，或佔該公司0.0356%股權。
写于七月十二日二零零八年
星洲
丹絨非執行董事邱德才出售0.0372%持股
2008-07-11
（吉隆坡）丹絨（TANJONG）非執行董事邱德才（譯音）在本月7日及9日通過公開市場，分別以每股12令吉54.18仙和12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士總共15萬股，或佔該公司總共0.0372%股權。
該公司發表文告說，邱氏在本月7日，以每股12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士共6500股，或佔該公司0.0016%股權。
與此同時，他在7月9日則以每股12令吉54.18仙，售該公司每股面值7.5便士共14萬3500股，或佔該公司0.0356%股權。
写于七月十二日二零零八年
Friday, August 08, 2008
彩马发电（三）
TANJONG 1QFY2009的营业额年对年与季对季起了21%与3%。净盈利也在同时期起了25%与2%。必须一提的是此净盈利的比较已经扣除掉了RM62m来自卖掉英国广播公司的一次过盈利。
Globeleq的独立发电厂的营运盈利比上一季提高了26%，来到了RM200m，但此盈利却被更高的RM30m竞标成本而抵消了。其中三间TANJONG拥有百分百的独立发电厂贡献了RM77m的营运盈利，其余四间被归纳为联营的独立发电厂贡献了RM12m的净盈利。
这一季的博彩派彩率为64%，比上一季更好。休闲业的Tropical Islands Resort的亏损减低到RM2m。DE为162%。
买入的风险：
一．非核心的业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．马币走强与弱势美金将侵蚀盈利汇。
五．政府向独立发电厂征收30%暴利税。
六．Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修，这将需要大约RM70m至RM80m的维修费。
七．利率提高将提高借贷成本。
八．需要投入非常高的资本开销。
写于六月二十一日二零零八年
Globeleq的独立发电厂的营运盈利比上一季提高了26%，来到了RM200m，但此盈利却被更高的RM30m竞标成本而抵消了。其中三间TANJONG拥有百分百的独立发电厂贡献了RM77m的营运盈利，其余四间被归纳为联营的独立发电厂贡献了RM12m的净盈利。
这一季的博彩派彩率为64%，比上一季更好。休闲业的Tropical Islands Resort的亏损减低到RM2m。DE为162%。
买入的风险：
一．非核心的业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．马币走强与弱势美金将侵蚀盈利汇。
五．政府向独立发电厂征收30%暴利税。
六．Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修，这将需要大约RM70m至RM80m的维修费。
七．利率提高将提高借贷成本。
八．需要投入非常高的资本开销。
写于六月二十一日二零零八年
Saturday, July 26, 2008
水电交加（十二）
关于YTLPOWR凭单的报道，凭单持有者必须注意的是对高股息股如YTLPOWR，持有它的凭单是比较吃亏的，因为凭单持有者没有股息。如果想要长期持有，还是转换成母股比较划算。
The Edge
Saturday July 12, 2008
YTL Power warrants fare weakly
THE performance of YTL Power International 2008/2018 warrant (YTLPowr-WB) since it made its debut on Bursa Malaysia in the middle of last month has not been encouraging due to the weak stock market and also on fears that the government’s imposition of a windfall tax will reduce the earnings of independent power producers (IPP) like YTL Power.
After reaching a high of 80.5 sen on the first day of trading, the warrant has been declining steadily. At the close of last Wednesday trading, YTLPowr-WB was trading at 51.5 sen while its mother share closed at RM1.77.
The company’s other warrant (YTLPowr-WA) closed at 55.5 sen.
YTL Power is Malaysia’s oldest independent power producer. It is also the concession holder of Wessex Water in Britain.
YTL Power also owns power assets in Indonesia and Australia among others. In the first nine months of financial year 2008 ended March 31, 2008,
YTL Power recorded a marginal 1.3% increase in net profit to RM758.2mil from RM748.5mil the same period last financial year.
Revenue grew 6.9% to RM3.1bil from RM2.9bil the corresponding period a year ago.
YTL Power actually suffered a decline in net profit in the third quarter to RM277.6mil from RM305.7mil a year ago.
This was due to the absence of any gain on disposal of investment. In the previous financial year, YTL Power recorded a gain of disposal of quoted investment of some RM88.9mil.
If the gain on investment was excluded, YTL Power’s profit actually 28% higher for the third quarter compared with last financial year.
As at the end of March 2008, the net asset per share of YTL Power was RM1.15.
The Government has gazetted the “Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008” on Malaysian IPPs which came into effect on July 1. Under this order, the Government decided to charge IPPs a 30% windfall tax where the return on assets exceeds 9%.
This development has dampened the share price of IPPs like YTL Power in the last few weeks.
YTLPowr-WB was born out of YTL Power’s offer of up to 2.2 billion new warrants for sale to its shareholders at 10 sen per warrant on a renounceable basis based on one new warrant for every three existing ordinary shares held.
A total of 1.78 billion YTLPowr-WB was issued.
YTLPowr-WB is now trading at a slight discount.
This is not uncommon for warrants of YTL Power as its other warrant, YTLPowr-WA, had often been traded at a discount in the past.
This is probably due to the fact that the company is a good dividend paymaster.
As warrantholders are not entitled to dividend, high dividend yield will have a negative impact on the value of the warrants.
As YTLPowr-WA and YTLPowr-WB are both trading at a discount with almost similar level of gearing and exercise price, investors are likely to select the warrant with higher discount which at the current prices belong to YTLPowr-WA.
Shareholders of YTL Power can opt to sell the mother share and simultaneously purchase the warrant for exercise to enjoy risk free arbitrage gain when the discount level is large enough to cover transaction and finance charges.
Shareholders should take advantage of the company’s share buyback exercise to lock in the risk free gain whenever possible.
写于七月十二日二零零八年
The Edge
Saturday July 12, 2008
YTL Power warrants fare weakly
THE performance of YTL Power International 2008/2018 warrant (YTLPowr-WB) since it made its debut on Bursa Malaysia in the middle of last month has not been encouraging due to the weak stock market and also on fears that the government’s imposition of a windfall tax will reduce the earnings of independent power producers (IPP) like YTL Power.
After reaching a high of 80.5 sen on the first day of trading, the warrant has been declining steadily. At the close of last Wednesday trading, YTLPowr-WB was trading at 51.5 sen while its mother share closed at RM1.77.
The company’s other warrant (YTLPowr-WA) closed at 55.5 sen.
YTL Power is Malaysia’s oldest independent power producer. It is also the concession holder of Wessex Water in Britain.
YTL Power also owns power assets in Indonesia and Australia among others. In the first nine months of financial year 2008 ended March 31, 2008,
YTL Power recorded a marginal 1.3% increase in net profit to RM758.2mil from RM748.5mil the same period last financial year.
Revenue grew 6.9% to RM3.1bil from RM2.9bil the corresponding period a year ago.
YTL Power actually suffered a decline in net profit in the third quarter to RM277.6mil from RM305.7mil a year ago.
This was due to the absence of any gain on disposal of investment. In the previous financial year, YTL Power recorded a gain of disposal of quoted investment of some RM88.9mil.
If the gain on investment was excluded, YTL Power’s profit actually 28% higher for the third quarter compared with last financial year.
As at the end of March 2008, the net asset per share of YTL Power was RM1.15.
The Government has gazetted the “Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008” on Malaysian IPPs which came into effect on July 1. Under this order, the Government decided to charge IPPs a 30% windfall tax where the return on assets exceeds 9%.
This development has dampened the share price of IPPs like YTL Power in the last few weeks.
YTLPowr-WB was born out of YTL Power’s offer of up to 2.2 billion new warrants for sale to its shareholders at 10 sen per warrant on a renounceable basis based on one new warrant for every three existing ordinary shares held.
A total of 1.78 billion YTLPowr-WB was issued.
YTLPowr-WB is now trading at a slight discount.
This is not uncommon for warrants of YTL Power as its other warrant, YTLPowr-WA, had often been traded at a discount in the past.
This is probably due to the fact that the company is a good dividend paymaster.
As warrantholders are not entitled to dividend, high dividend yield will have a negative impact on the value of the warrants.
As YTLPowr-WA and YTLPowr-WB are both trading at a discount with almost similar level of gearing and exercise price, investors are likely to select the warrant with higher discount which at the current prices belong to YTLPowr-WA.
Shareholders of YTL Power can opt to sell the mother share and simultaneously purchase the warrant for exercise to enjoy risk free arbitrage gain when the discount level is large enough to cover transaction and finance charges.
Shareholders should take advantage of the company’s share buyback exercise to lock in the risk free gain whenever possible.
写于七月十二日二零零八年
水电交加（十一）
YTLPOWR宣布进军中国水务业，还必须有更多的信息才能做出评估。
The Edge
19-06-2008: YTL ventures into China KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corporation Bhd is venturing into China via a strategic tie-up with Asia Environment Holdings Ltd (AEH) to collaborate in the fast-growing and lucrative water industry.
In a statement, YTL said the two companies had entered into an agreement yesterday to draw on the group’s water expertise, branding and financial strength and AEH’s local knowledge and proven execution skills in China.
AEH, which is listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, provides water and wastewater treatment solutions, manufactures, fabricates, sells and installs generic and customised equipment for water and wastewater treatment systems.
AEH has also undertaken build-operate-transfer (BOT) water projects in China and is expected to operate 11 BOT projects by the end of 2008.
YTL said the collaboration would create a formidable force in the Chinese water industry, which is expected to see investments of RMB1 trillion (RM470 billion) from 2006-2010, according to the Ministry of Construction in China.
YTL said in the framework agreement, its subsidiary Wessex Water Sdn Bhd would enter into an exclusive technical agreement with AEH to provide technical advisory and consultancy services to AEH on an exclusive basis in China.
It said Wessex Water would be able to draw upon the extensive experience of its UK affiliate in managing water supply and sewerage in parts of south-west and southern England.
YTL said AEH had agreed to give YTL a first right of refusal to collaborate in all future water-related projects, including equipment manufacture, design, EPC and BOTs in China.
It said it had been estimated that two-thirds of China’s water resources were polluted, a problem exacerbated by low water resources per capita and high water leakages amounting to 28%.
YTL said the Chinese government was putting a greater emphasis on improving water standards in China and had encouraged higher water tariffs as a means of attracting much needed investments in the Chinese water industry.
“This is the right time to be entering the China water market. We will be able to leverage our expertise and Asia Environment’s strong China presence in this mutually beneficial alliance,” said YTL chief executive officer Tan Sri Francis Yeoh.
写于七月七日二零零八年
The Edge
19-06-2008: YTL ventures into China KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corporation Bhd is venturing into China via a strategic tie-up with Asia Environment Holdings Ltd (AEH) to collaborate in the fast-growing and lucrative water industry.
In a statement, YTL said the two companies had entered into an agreement yesterday to draw on the group’s water expertise, branding and financial strength and AEH’s local knowledge and proven execution skills in China.
AEH, which is listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, provides water and wastewater treatment solutions, manufactures, fabricates, sells and installs generic and customised equipment for water and wastewater treatment systems.
AEH has also undertaken build-operate-transfer (BOT) water projects in China and is expected to operate 11 BOT projects by the end of 2008.
YTL said the collaboration would create a formidable force in the Chinese water industry, which is expected to see investments of RMB1 trillion (RM470 billion) from 2006-2010, according to the Ministry of Construction in China.
YTL said in the framework agreement, its subsidiary Wessex Water Sdn Bhd would enter into an exclusive technical agreement with AEH to provide technical advisory and consultancy services to AEH on an exclusive basis in China.
It said Wessex Water would be able to draw upon the extensive experience of its UK affiliate in managing water supply and sewerage in parts of south-west and southern England.
YTL said AEH had agreed to give YTL a first right of refusal to collaborate in all future water-related projects, including equipment manufacture, design, EPC and BOTs in China.
It said it had been estimated that two-thirds of China’s water resources were polluted, a problem exacerbated by low water resources per capita and high water leakages amounting to 28%.
YTL said the Chinese government was putting a greater emphasis on improving water standards in China and had encouraged higher water tariffs as a means of attracting much needed investments in the Chinese water industry.
“This is the right time to be entering the China water market. We will be able to leverage our expertise and Asia Environment’s strong China presence in this mutually beneficial alliance,” said YTL chief executive officer Tan Sri Francis Yeoh.
写于七月七日二零零八年
Monday, July 21, 2008
彩马发电（二）
我曾经在2006年发表过对TANJONG的看法，当年我不看好它在Tropical Islands Resort的投资。如今，我还是持有相同的看法。虽然事隔两年，Tropical Islands Resort还是在亏损的状况中，唯一值得庆幸的是它的营运亏损已经从FY2006年占净盈利的-12.1%束减到FY2008年的-5.9%。
除了休闲业以外，TANJONG还拥有67%的股份在Menara Maxis，以及50%的股份在TGV Cinemas。这些产业对TANJONG的营业额与赚利的贡献并不显著，就不多谈了。
TANJONG的其中一个强劲的现金流是来自1991年收购的Pan Malaysia Pools Sdn Bhd，也就是目前大家比较收悉的大马彩。大马彩是马来西亚最小的博彩公司，占市场大约23.8%份额。虽然大马彩提供持续的现金流给TANJONG，但以马来西亚今日的博彩业来看，成长是非常的有限的。
所以，我这里要说的是TANJONG的独立发电厂业务。TANJONG在马来西亚拥有三间独立发电厂，分别是Telok Gong，Pahlawan以及Panglima，总电力为1,490MW。
在2005年，TANJONG收购了Taweelah Asia Power Co的10%股权，此公司目前拥有928MW的发电厂与92MIGD的海水淡化厂，预计到了2008年尾，当第二期完工了之后，将会有2,000MW的电力，海水淡化的容量也会增加至160MGID。
同年，TANJONG也收购了两间座落在埃及的独立发电厂，Suez Gulf与Port Said East，总电力为1,366MW。
当然，最振奋人心的是在2007年尾，TANJONG的子公司Pendekar Energy收购了55%股权的Globeleq Ltd。此公司拥有七间独立发电厂分别座落在埃及，孟加拉，巴基斯坦以及斯里兰卡，总电力为1,810MW。这也是为什么我再次重提TANJONG的最大原因。此收购也将TANJONG的总电力从之前的2,856MW提升到3,951MW。
看了TANJONG的业务，再来看TANJONG的业绩。根据TANJONG FY2008的年报，发电厂贡献了大约67.7%的总营业额与77.4%的营业盈利。这其中有39.5%的营业额是来自本地发电厂，24.3%来自埃及发电厂，以及4%来自Pendekar Energy。以营业盈利来分析的话，其中43.9%的盈利来自本地发电厂，28.8%贡献自埃及发电厂，刚被收购的Pendekar Energy虽然只纳入了两个月的业绩也提供了4.8%的盈利。
以下几点必须注意：
一．非核心业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．弱势美金汇率将影响赚利。
写于五月十二日二零零八年
除了休闲业以外，TANJONG还拥有67%的股份在Menara Maxis，以及50%的股份在TGV Cinemas。这些产业对TANJONG的营业额与赚利的贡献并不显著，就不多谈了。
TANJONG的其中一个强劲的现金流是来自1991年收购的Pan Malaysia Pools Sdn Bhd，也就是目前大家比较收悉的大马彩。大马彩是马来西亚最小的博彩公司，占市场大约23.8%份额。虽然大马彩提供持续的现金流给TANJONG，但以马来西亚今日的博彩业来看，成长是非常的有限的。
所以，我这里要说的是TANJONG的独立发电厂业务。TANJONG在马来西亚拥有三间独立发电厂，分别是Telok Gong，Pahlawan以及Panglima，总电力为1,490MW。
在2005年，TANJONG收购了Taweelah Asia Power Co的10%股权，此公司目前拥有928MW的发电厂与92MIGD的海水淡化厂，预计到了2008年尾，当第二期完工了之后，将会有2,000MW的电力，海水淡化的容量也会增加至160MGID。
同年，TANJONG也收购了两间座落在埃及的独立发电厂，Suez Gulf与Port Said East，总电力为1,366MW。
当然，最振奋人心的是在2007年尾，TANJONG的子公司Pendekar Energy收购了55%股权的Globeleq Ltd。此公司拥有七间独立发电厂分别座落在埃及，孟加拉，巴基斯坦以及斯里兰卡，总电力为1,810MW。这也是为什么我再次重提TANJONG的最大原因。此收购也将TANJONG的总电力从之前的2,856MW提升到3,951MW。
看了TANJONG的业务，再来看TANJONG的业绩。根据TANJONG FY2008的年报，发电厂贡献了大约67.7%的总营业额与77.4%的营业盈利。这其中有39.5%的营业额是来自本地发电厂，24.3%来自埃及发电厂，以及4%来自Pendekar Energy。以营业盈利来分析的话，其中43.9%的盈利来自本地发电厂，28.8%贡献自埃及发电厂，刚被收购的Pendekar Energy虽然只纳入了两个月的业绩也提供了4.8%的盈利。
以下几点必须注意：
一．非核心业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．弱势美金汇率将影响赚利。
写于五月十二日二零零八年
Sunday, July 20, 2008
那行出状元？
很久没发表了，因为最近电脑出了些状况，让我不见了六个月的资料，也就是说，从今年一月到六月的资料全被删除了。所以，近半个月都在用种种的方法来恢复重要的资料，只可惜功效不大，很多资料就此永远找不回了。这真的痛，但事实无法改变，最近已经开始了重新寻找及输入已遗失的资料，有些资料可能无法再找回，或已经忘记，但这也是无可奈何的。
说回股票，近来马股市大跌，不外乎几个原因。外围因素包括美国经济不景气，原油、原产品价钱高涨、全世界的高通膨降临等。国内，政府在六月大量的调高原油价，通膨创历年新高，利率可能在下半年调高，政治的动荡好像一场剧情复杂的连续剧等都在在的影响着大马的股市走向。
在熊市的来临，身为投资者的我们要如何投资、如何选股呢？
让我们来试试由上至下的方式（top-down approach）。首先，GLCs（政府相关公司）就免了吧，对一个没有远见，没有规划，贪污腐败的大股东，投资者当然是能免则免。通货膨胀的压力与利率将可能在下半年调高将逼使消费者紧束腰包，这将冲击银行的贷款与提高坏账、贷款利率的提高将影响产业与气车的销售。天然气的涨价与美元的弱势将侵蚀手套制造业。外需的减少将使电子工业减少订单。政府消减开销将影响建筑与相关行业。政府缺钱，很可能会再接下来的财政预算案再次的向罪恶股如香烟与酒类征收更高的税务。
随便写写都可以列出一大堆目前不适合投资的行业，倒不如想想还有什么行业值得关注。就我个人的看法，投资在受益于高原产品溢价的行业如钢铁、洋灰、棕油、原油等的时机已过，投资者如此刻冒冒然然进场买进这些行业的股票，可能会买在高处。目前，我只会投资在那些公司盈利比较确定、容易预测，或者是可以将成本转嫁给其客户的公司，以及那些就算是在高通膨消费者还是必须消费的行业。
Saturday, June 28, 2008
储电待发？（一）
暴利税对独立发电厂的净利影响到底有多大？看了一大堆的报道，但还是整理不出一个所以然来，看来只有等待善变的政府公布进一步的详情之后再作打算。
The Edge
09-06-2008: Windfall tax holds back PPA re-negotiations PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s proposed re-negotiation with independent power producers (IPPs) over their power purchase agreements (PPAs) may now be held back following the imposition of a windfall tax on the IPPs, analysts said.
“The windfall tax (imposed on IPPs) is an indication that the renegotiation on the PPAs is a no-go. The IPPs were not going to budge but they may do so now because of the windfall tax,” said an analyst.
The analyst said IPPs such as YTL Power International Bhd and Genting Bhd were unlikely to be badly hit as most of YTL Power’s earnings came from Wessex Waters while power made up a small portion of Genting group’s earnings. However, IPPs such as Tanjong plc and MMC Corporation Bhd may be affected more.
“Going forward, the windfall tax will be imposed until the IPPs budge,” said the local analyst, adding that the first generation of IPPs were being pushed to a corner. Previous attempts to re-negotiate the PPAs had failed.
Another analyst said the IPPs would be even less predisposed to enter into re-negotiations with Tenaga now that the government had imposed the windfall tax.
“The government cannot force them to accept the terms. The IPPs will drag the negotiations,” he said, adding that the government was seen to be favouring Tenaga. The PPA for the first generation of IPPs would expire in eight years.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
“If we use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings,” analyst said.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
According to analyst’s estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
星洲
發電廠須繳暴利稅（吉隆坡4日訊）政府將對獨立發電廠（IPP）及棕油廠實施暴利稅，分析師認為，新措施將打擊國內發電業者盈利，並將影響市場及投資意願。《The Edge》財經日報引述消息指出，政府或對獨立發電廠的本地營業額，征收高達5%暴利稅。國內獨立發電廠從國家能源（TENAGA）取得的營業額約達106億令吉，5%稅務將為政府帶來5億3100萬令吉收入。政府每年對電力領域提供的天然氣補貼達137億令吉，佔龐大補貼的3.9%。姚金龍指出，儘管實施暴利稅將改善政府財務狀況，但它並非親商政策，並將衝擊投資意願。“發電廠業者已繳付公司稅，額外稅務對它們不公平。”政府或應從獨立發電廠合約著手，修改收費架構。對獨立發電廠實施暴利稅是不可思議的，因為該領域業者並沒錄得高額盈利。該行指出，獨立發電廠雖獲國能及馬石油（Petronas）補貼，不過它們傾向于享有穩定燃油價格，而非獲取暴利。
Business Times
7-6-2008
Windfall TaxSOME power producers may be able to pass on the cost of a windfall tax to Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB). This is due to a clause in their power purchase agreements (PPAs) with TNB. PPAs are long-term contracts under which TNB agrees to buy power from the IPPs."Of course, then it is up to the IPPs to decide whether they pass it on or not. It's on a voluntary basis," Dr Philip Tan, president of the Association of the Independent Power Producers of Malaysia, or Persatuan Nasional Penjanakuasa Bebas Malaysia (Penjanabebas), told Business Times in a telephone interview.
Starting July 1, IPPs and oil palm planters will be subjected to a windfall tax. The tax is part of the government's plan to cut fuel subsidies that have soared because of record high crude oil prices.Tan explained that the pass-on clause could kick in because the tax is specific to the power sector and not across all businesses.However, he said he could not state with certainty the number of PPAs with such a clause because he was not privy to information in all the agreements.The association's council members had met on Wednesday to discuss the windfall tax.According to the government, IPPs will be charged a 30 per cent tax on return of assets (ROA) that exceeds nine per cent in their audited accounts.Tan said the association will write to the Ministry of Finance to seek clarification on how to calculate the tax."If it is based on normal accounting standards, then it means that older IPPs and IPPs which are conscientious enough to pay off their loans fast will bear the brunt of it," he said.ROA shows how well a company uses its assets to make profits, with a higher percentage indicating greater efficiency. This is because it shows the company makes more money on less investment.The ROA is derived by dividing net profit by total assets."It would be more equitable if it was net profit divided by original assets, but we want to check with the ministry on their formula," Tan said.The tax will only be chargeable next year when the audited accounts are drawn up."The windfall tax actually discourages IPPs from being efficient. There is no incentive for us to control costs," Tan said.
The Star
Thursday June 12, 2008
IPPs face uncertainty over windfall tax
PETALING JAYA: The independent power producers (IPPs) are still in the dark over how the windfall tax announced by the Government last Wednesday will be administered on them.
On June 4, the Government announced that a windfall tax of 30% would be imposed on the IPPs from July 1 following an announcement that fuel prices and electricity tariff would also be raised due to the high price of crude oil.
Questions that have arisen include the return on asset (ROA) definition, the frequency of the tax, the amount to be raised from the tax and whether it would be imposed on all IPPs or only on those in the peninsula.
There are still a number of undefined variables that need to be spelt out before analyst can make an accurate assessment of the potential impact on the IPPs.
A quick check with a few IPPs revealed that they're still waiting for the official formula from the Government. According to press reports, some IPPs are even looking at the possibility of asking for an extension of their concession in return for this tax payment,” she said.
Although officials at the Economic Planning Unit had intimated that earnings before interest and tax would be used to derive the ROA for the computation of the windfall tax, “it did not spell out the variable in the denominator, which some parties think could be fixed assets instead of the usual total assets”.
The frequency of the tax also remained unclear but clarification should come through by year-end since the companies needed to account for these taxes when finalising their financial accounts.
There might be greater challenges for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreements between Tenaga Nasional Bhd and the IPPs if the tax were successfully implemented.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
If use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
Estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
写于六月十日二零零八年
The Edge
09-06-2008: Windfall tax holds back PPA re-negotiations PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s proposed re-negotiation with independent power producers (IPPs) over their power purchase agreements (PPAs) may now be held back following the imposition of a windfall tax on the IPPs, analysts said.
“The windfall tax (imposed on IPPs) is an indication that the renegotiation on the PPAs is a no-go. The IPPs were not going to budge but they may do so now because of the windfall tax,” said an analyst.
The analyst said IPPs such as YTL Power International Bhd and Genting Bhd were unlikely to be badly hit as most of YTL Power’s earnings came from Wessex Waters while power made up a small portion of Genting group’s earnings. However, IPPs such as Tanjong plc and MMC Corporation Bhd may be affected more.
“Going forward, the windfall tax will be imposed until the IPPs budge,” said the local analyst, adding that the first generation of IPPs were being pushed to a corner. Previous attempts to re-negotiate the PPAs had failed.
Another analyst said the IPPs would be even less predisposed to enter into re-negotiations with Tenaga now that the government had imposed the windfall tax.
“The government cannot force them to accept the terms. The IPPs will drag the negotiations,” he said, adding that the government was seen to be favouring Tenaga. The PPA for the first generation of IPPs would expire in eight years.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
“If we use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings,” analyst said.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
According to analyst’s estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
星洲
發電廠須繳暴利稅（吉隆坡4日訊）政府將對獨立發電廠（IPP）及棕油廠實施暴利稅，分析師認為，新措施將打擊國內發電業者盈利，並將影響市場及投資意願。《The Edge》財經日報引述消息指出，政府或對獨立發電廠的本地營業額，征收高達5%暴利稅。國內獨立發電廠從國家能源（TENAGA）取得的營業額約達106億令吉，5%稅務將為政府帶來5億3100萬令吉收入。政府每年對電力領域提供的天然氣補貼達137億令吉，佔龐大補貼的3.9%。姚金龍指出，儘管實施暴利稅將改善政府財務狀況，但它並非親商政策，並將衝擊投資意願。“發電廠業者已繳付公司稅，額外稅務對它們不公平。”政府或應從獨立發電廠合約著手，修改收費架構。對獨立發電廠實施暴利稅是不可思議的，因為該領域業者並沒錄得高額盈利。該行指出，獨立發電廠雖獲國能及馬石油（Petronas）補貼，不過它們傾向于享有穩定燃油價格，而非獲取暴利。
Business Times
7-6-2008
Windfall TaxSOME power producers may be able to pass on the cost of a windfall tax to Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB). This is due to a clause in their power purchase agreements (PPAs) with TNB. PPAs are long-term contracts under which TNB agrees to buy power from the IPPs."Of course, then it is up to the IPPs to decide whether they pass it on or not. It's on a voluntary basis," Dr Philip Tan, president of the Association of the Independent Power Producers of Malaysia, or Persatuan Nasional Penjanakuasa Bebas Malaysia (Penjanabebas), told Business Times in a telephone interview.
Starting July 1, IPPs and oil palm planters will be subjected to a windfall tax. The tax is part of the government's plan to cut fuel subsidies that have soared because of record high crude oil prices.Tan explained that the pass-on clause could kick in because the tax is specific to the power sector and not across all businesses.However, he said he could not state with certainty the number of PPAs with such a clause because he was not privy to information in all the agreements.The association's council members had met on Wednesday to discuss the windfall tax.According to the government, IPPs will be charged a 30 per cent tax on return of assets (ROA) that exceeds nine per cent in their audited accounts.Tan said the association will write to the Ministry of Finance to seek clarification on how to calculate the tax."If it is based on normal accounting standards, then it means that older IPPs and IPPs which are conscientious enough to pay off their loans fast will bear the brunt of it," he said.ROA shows how well a company uses its assets to make profits, with a higher percentage indicating greater efficiency. This is because it shows the company makes more money on less investment.The ROA is derived by dividing net profit by total assets."It would be more equitable if it was net profit divided by original assets, but we want to check with the ministry on their formula," Tan said.The tax will only be chargeable next year when the audited accounts are drawn up."The windfall tax actually discourages IPPs from being efficient. There is no incentive for us to control costs," Tan said.
The Star
Thursday June 12, 2008
IPPs face uncertainty over windfall tax
PETALING JAYA: The independent power producers (IPPs) are still in the dark over how the windfall tax announced by the Government last Wednesday will be administered on them.
On June 4, the Government announced that a windfall tax of 30% would be imposed on the IPPs from July 1 following an announcement that fuel prices and electricity tariff would also be raised due to the high price of crude oil.
Questions that have arisen include the return on asset (ROA) definition, the frequency of the tax, the amount to be raised from the tax and whether it would be imposed on all IPPs or only on those in the peninsula.
There are still a number of undefined variables that need to be spelt out before analyst can make an accurate assessment of the potential impact on the IPPs.
A quick check with a few IPPs revealed that they're still waiting for the official formula from the Government. According to press reports, some IPPs are even looking at the possibility of asking for an extension of their concession in return for this tax payment,” she said.
Although officials at the Economic Planning Unit had intimated that earnings before interest and tax would be used to derive the ROA for the computation of the windfall tax, “it did not spell out the variable in the denominator, which some parties think could be fixed assets instead of the usual total assets”.
The frequency of the tax also remained unclear but clarification should come through by year-end since the companies needed to account for these taxes when finalising their financial accounts.
There might be greater challenges for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreements between Tenaga Nasional Bhd and the IPPs if the tax were successfully implemented.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
If use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
Estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
写于六月十日二零零八年
水电交加（十）
YTLPOWR Q3FY08的营业额比起去年同季起了10%，比上一季起了6%。相对于同时期的净盈利起了28%与13%，当然，这是在扣除了Q3FY07 RM88.9m的一次过盈利之后的比较。本地发电站在这一季再次下滑1.6%，PT Java的发电站成长了10%，Wessex Water也成长了8.6%。
ROE为17%，DE为251%。净盈利率维持在24%。拥有每股141.2sen的现金。净股息率为6.9%。目前手头上有大约2.0%的财库股，已经足够分派库存股。
投资的风险：
一．DE提高了23%。
二．还是不断的发出ESOS、凭单与债卷转换。
三．超多的凭单股数 将会稀释约26%的每股盈余。
写于五月三十一日二零零八年
ROE为17%，DE为251%。净盈利率维持在24%。拥有每股141.2sen的现金。净股息率为6.9%。目前手头上有大约2.0%的财库股，已经足够分派库存股。
投资的风险：
一．DE提高了23%。
二．还是不断的发出ESOS、凭单与债卷转换。
三．超多的凭单股数 将会稀释约26%的每股盈余。
写于五月三十一日二零零八年
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