暴利税对独立发电厂的净利影响到底有多大？看了一大堆的报道，但还是整理不出一个所以然来，看来只有等待善变的政府公布进一步的详情之后再作打算。
The Edge
09-06-2008: Windfall tax holds back PPA re-negotiations PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s proposed re-negotiation with independent power producers (IPPs) over their power purchase agreements (PPAs) may now be held back following the imposition of a windfall tax on the IPPs, analysts said.
“The windfall tax (imposed on IPPs) is an indication that the renegotiation on the PPAs is a no-go. The IPPs were not going to budge but they may do so now because of the windfall tax,” said an analyst.
The analyst said IPPs such as YTL Power International Bhd and Genting Bhd were unlikely to be badly hit as most of YTL Power’s earnings came from Wessex Waters while power made up a small portion of Genting group’s earnings. However, IPPs such as Tanjong plc and MMC Corporation Bhd may be affected more.
“Going forward, the windfall tax will be imposed until the IPPs budge,” said the local analyst, adding that the first generation of IPPs were being pushed to a corner. Previous attempts to re-negotiate the PPAs had failed.
Another analyst said the IPPs would be even less predisposed to enter into re-negotiations with Tenaga now that the government had imposed the windfall tax.
“The government cannot force them to accept the terms. The IPPs will drag the negotiations,” he said, adding that the government was seen to be favouring Tenaga. The PPA for the first generation of IPPs would expire in eight years.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
“If we use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings,” analyst said.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
According to analyst’s estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
星洲
發電廠須繳暴利稅（吉隆坡4日訊）政府將對獨立發電廠（IPP）及棕油廠實施暴利稅，分析師認為，新措施將打擊國內發電業者盈利，並將影響市場及投資意願。《The Edge》財經日報引述消息指出，政府或對獨立發電廠的本地營業額，征收高達5%暴利稅。國內獨立發電廠從國家能源（TENAGA）取得的營業額約達106億令吉，5%稅務將為政府帶來5億3100萬令吉收入。政府每年對電力領域提供的天然氣補貼達137億令吉，佔龐大補貼的3.9%。姚金龍指出，儘管實施暴利稅將改善政府財務狀況，但它並非親商政策，並將衝擊投資意願。“發電廠業者已繳付公司稅，額外稅務對它們不公平。”政府或應從獨立發電廠合約著手，修改收費架構。對獨立發電廠實施暴利稅是不可思議的，因為該領域業者並沒錄得高額盈利。該行指出，獨立發電廠雖獲國能及馬石油（Petronas）補貼，不過它們傾向于享有穩定燃油價格，而非獲取暴利。
Business Times
7-6-2008
Windfall TaxSOME power producers may be able to pass on the cost of a windfall tax to Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB). This is due to a clause in their power purchase agreements (PPAs) with TNB. PPAs are long-term contracts under which TNB agrees to buy power from the IPPs."Of course, then it is up to the IPPs to decide whether they pass it on or not. It's on a voluntary basis," Dr Philip Tan, president of the Association of the Independent Power Producers of Malaysia, or Persatuan Nasional Penjanakuasa Bebas Malaysia (Penjanabebas), told Business Times in a telephone interview.
Starting July 1, IPPs and oil palm planters will be subjected to a windfall tax. The tax is part of the government's plan to cut fuel subsidies that have soared because of record high crude oil prices.Tan explained that the pass-on clause could kick in because the tax is specific to the power sector and not across all businesses.However, he said he could not state with certainty the number of PPAs with such a clause because he was not privy to information in all the agreements.The association's council members had met on Wednesday to discuss the windfall tax.According to the government, IPPs will be charged a 30 per cent tax on return of assets (ROA) that exceeds nine per cent in their audited accounts.Tan said the association will write to the Ministry of Finance to seek clarification on how to calculate the tax."If it is based on normal accounting standards, then it means that older IPPs and IPPs which are conscientious enough to pay off their loans fast will bear the brunt of it," he said.ROA shows how well a company uses its assets to make profits, with a higher percentage indicating greater efficiency. This is because it shows the company makes more money on less investment.The ROA is derived by dividing net profit by total assets."It would be more equitable if it was net profit divided by original assets, but we want to check with the ministry on their formula," Tan said.The tax will only be chargeable next year when the audited accounts are drawn up."The windfall tax actually discourages IPPs from being efficient. There is no incentive for us to control costs," Tan said.
The Star
Thursday June 12, 2008
IPPs face uncertainty over windfall tax
PETALING JAYA: The independent power producers (IPPs) are still in the dark over how the windfall tax announced by the Government last Wednesday will be administered on them.
On June 4, the Government announced that a windfall tax of 30% would be imposed on the IPPs from July 1 following an announcement that fuel prices and electricity tariff would also be raised due to the high price of crude oil.
Questions that have arisen include the return on asset (ROA) definition, the frequency of the tax, the amount to be raised from the tax and whether it would be imposed on all IPPs or only on those in the peninsula.
There are still a number of undefined variables that need to be spelt out before analyst can make an accurate assessment of the potential impact on the IPPs.
A quick check with a few IPPs revealed that they're still waiting for the official formula from the Government. According to press reports, some IPPs are even looking at the possibility of asking for an extension of their concession in return for this tax payment,” she said.
Although officials at the Economic Planning Unit had intimated that earnings before interest and tax would be used to derive the ROA for the computation of the windfall tax, “it did not spell out the variable in the denominator, which some parties think could be fixed assets instead of the usual total assets”.
The frequency of the tax also remained unclear but clarification should come through by year-end since the companies needed to account for these taxes when finalising their financial accounts.
There might be greater challenges for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreements between Tenaga Nasional Bhd and the IPPs if the tax were successfully implemented.
The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.
It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.
If use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings.
Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.
Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.
The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.
Estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.
Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.
While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.
写于六月十日二零零八年
Saturday, June 28, 2008
水电交加（十）
YTLPOWR Q3FY08的营业额比起去年同季起了10%，比上一季起了6%。相对于同时期的净盈利起了28%与13%，当然，这是在扣除了Q3FY07 RM88.9m的一次过盈利之后的比较。本地发电站在这一季再次下滑1.6%，PT Java的发电站成长了10%，Wessex Water也成长了8.6%。
ROE为17%，DE为251%。净盈利率维持在24%。拥有每股141.2sen的现金。净股息率为6.9%。目前手头上有大约2.0%的财库股，已经足够分派库存股。
投资的风险：
一．DE提高了23%。
二．还是不断的发出ESOS、凭单与债卷转换。
三．超多的凭单股数 将会稀释约26%的每股盈余。
写于五月三十一日二零零八年
ROE为17%，DE为251%。净盈利率维持在24%。拥有每股141.2sen的现金。净股息率为6.9%。目前手头上有大约2.0%的财库股，已经足够分派库存股。
投资的风险：
一．DE提高了23%。
二．还是不断的发出ESOS、凭单与债卷转换。
三．超多的凭单股数 将会稀释约26%的每股盈余。
写于五月三十一日二零零八年
Friday, June 27, 2008
财报风云（三）
资产负债表
资产负债表可以显示一家公司在过去的特定日（每季的最后一天或每财政年的最后一天），所拥有的资产及负债:
- 现金库存充裕否？
- 存货多不多？
- 房舍丶土地丶厂房等固定资产多不多？
- 公司资产规模有多大？
- 欠债内容是什么，短期债务还是长期债务多？
- 欠债多不多？
- 保留的盈余丰不丰富？
资产负债表包括资产丶负债与股东权益。
资产可分为几大类：
- 流动资产
=> 包括现金及约当现金（银行存款丶证卷丶银行存单丶短期债卷）丶短期投资（股票丶共同基金）丶应收帐款丶存货（仓库内的原料丶半成品丶制成品）丶预付款项等，在一年内或一个营业周期内可转变成为现金的资产。
-> 一般而言，现金充裕的公司，是属于经营型态较为保守的公司，缺点是公司可能目前没有新事业的开发计划，或找不到新的营运方向。
- 固定资产
=> 包括土地丶厂房丶办公与机器设备丶预付设备款丶递延费用丶递延所得税（公司预缴之所得税税金）等有形的资产，而企业为了提高竞争力买入发明权丶商标权丶箸作权等无形资产，也都是企业的固定资产。
负债可区分为流动负债，长期负债与其它负债：
- 流动负债
=> 公司在一年内必须偿还的负债，主要内容是短期借款丶应付帐款丶预收款丶应付所得税丶应付费用等。
- 长期负债
=> 超过一年以上的长期债务，大多是银行借款丶发行公司债等。
- 其它负债
=> 包括退休金丶递延所得税及可递延的贷款等。
股东权益就是一家公司股东持有的实际价值，也就是总资产减总负债的余额。一家经营绩效好的公司，股东权益会越来越高，也就是经营者替股东赚近了更多的资产。股东权益的组成项目有股本丶资本公积丶保留盈余等。
- 股本
=> 指股东对企业所投入的资本总额。
=> 股本大有时意谓着经营难度提高，一家公司有大股本后，要长期提供良好的盈余相对不易，这些公司可能面临了成长的极限，不易再有突破性的发展。
- 资本公积
=> 非由营运活动产生的收入，主要是股票溢价收入丶资产重估丶捐赠等。
- 保留盈余或累计亏损
=> 企业保留帐上未分配的盈余。
=> 一家资本公积及保留盈余高的公司，表示公司以往的经营绩效佳，才能累积了盈余和公积，就算是碰到一丶两年的不景气，投资人仍可能由公司以往所保留的盈余和公积来配股丶配息。
- 其它
=> 包括累积换算调整数（外币交易等所产生的盈亏）丶库藏股票丶投资损失等。
=> 许多上市公司实施库藏股，优点是买回自家股票注销资本，长期而言，可提高每股盈余l但由于库藏股是以公司资金买入，也会减少使用资金，影响公司的成长动能。
资产负债表可以显示一家公司在过去的特定日（每季的最后一天或每财政年的最后一天），所拥有的资产及负债:
- 现金库存充裕否？
- 存货多不多？
- 房舍丶土地丶厂房等固定资产多不多？
- 公司资产规模有多大？
- 欠债内容是什么，短期债务还是长期债务多？
- 欠债多不多？
- 保留的盈余丰不丰富？
资产负债表包括资产丶负债与股东权益。
资产可分为几大类：
- 流动资产
=> 包括现金及约当现金（银行存款丶证卷丶银行存单丶短期债卷）丶短期投资（股票丶共同基金）丶应收帐款丶存货（仓库内的原料丶半成品丶制成品）丶预付款项等，在一年内或一个营业周期内可转变成为现金的资产。
-> 一般而言，现金充裕的公司，是属于经营型态较为保守的公司，缺点是公司可能目前没有新事业的开发计划，或找不到新的营运方向。
- 固定资产
=> 包括土地丶厂房丶办公与机器设备丶预付设备款丶递延费用丶递延所得税（公司预缴之所得税税金）等有形的资产，而企业为了提高竞争力买入发明权丶商标权丶箸作权等无形资产，也都是企业的固定资产。
负债可区分为流动负债，长期负债与其它负债：
- 流动负债
=> 公司在一年内必须偿还的负债，主要内容是短期借款丶应付帐款丶预收款丶应付所得税丶应付费用等。
- 长期负债
=> 超过一年以上的长期债务，大多是银行借款丶发行公司债等。
- 其它负债
=> 包括退休金丶递延所得税及可递延的贷款等。
股东权益就是一家公司股东持有的实际价值，也就是总资产减总负债的余额。一家经营绩效好的公司，股东权益会越来越高，也就是经营者替股东赚近了更多的资产。股东权益的组成项目有股本丶资本公积丶保留盈余等。
- 股本
=> 指股东对企业所投入的资本总额。
=> 股本大有时意谓着经营难度提高，一家公司有大股本后，要长期提供良好的盈余相对不易，这些公司可能面临了成长的极限，不易再有突破性的发展。
- 资本公积
=> 非由营运活动产生的收入，主要是股票溢价收入丶资产重估丶捐赠等。
- 保留盈余或累计亏损
=> 企业保留帐上未分配的盈余。
=> 一家资本公积及保留盈余高的公司，表示公司以往的经营绩效佳，才能累积了盈余和公积，就算是碰到一丶两年的不景气，投资人仍可能由公司以往所保留的盈余和公积来配股丶配息。
- 其它
=> 包括累积换算调整数（外币交易等所产生的盈亏）丶库藏股票丶投资损失等。
=> 许多上市公司实施库藏股，优点是买回自家股票注销资本，长期而言，可提高每股盈余l但由于库藏股是以公司资金买入，也会减少使用资金，影响公司的成长动能。
Saturday, June 07, 2008
全利双赢？（六）
QL Q3FY08的营业额年对年的起了21%，海产加工起了4%，棕油榨取大起59%以及家禽养殖也起了16%。同时期的净盈利也起了27%，海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖也分别起了8%丶8%与39%。
根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额与盈利的增加是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。至于棕油榨取的增高是因为更高的CPO价钱，跟去年同时期相比，CPO的价钱已提高了74%。虽然棕油榨取的营业额大起59%，但净盈利只增加8%，那是因为棕油榨取率（FFB）下跌了11%以及较高的成本与竞争激烈所至。家禽养殖的营业额与盈利的增加跟海产加工一样，都是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。
因为QL的行业循环性很高，尤其是海产加工与棕油榨取，因此，季对季的业绩比较意义不大，就此略过。
3QFY2008的ROE为23%，ROIC为12%，D/E为 95%，必须注意。
写于三月十三日二零零八年
根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额与盈利的增加是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。至于棕油榨取的增高是因为更高的CPO价钱，跟去年同时期相比，CPO的价钱已提高了74%。虽然棕油榨取的营业额大起59%，但净盈利只增加8%，那是因为棕油榨取率（FFB）下跌了11%以及较高的成本与竞争激烈所至。家禽养殖的营业额与盈利的增加跟海产加工一样，都是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。
因为QL的行业循环性很高，尤其是海产加工与棕油榨取，因此，季对季的业绩比较意义不大，就此略过。
3QFY2008的ROE为23%，ROIC为12%，D/E为 95%，必须注意。
写于三月十三日二零零八年
Sunday, June 01, 2008
水电交加（九）
YTLPOWR-WR终于在5月21日上市。假设说你在5月13日之前拥有3千股的YTLPOWR，那在5月21日就会有1千股的YTLPOWR-WR存入你的户口里。如果你在21日当天选择将此1千股给卖了，那你可能已经RM800袋袋平安了。
如果你选择不卖的话，那你必须在6月4日之前将RM100交给YTLPOWR，以换取1千股的YTLPOWR-WB。之后，就看该凭单在市场的造化。
还有另一种选择，你可以增加你的持股。让我们来作一些数学游戏，以上星期五YTLPOWR-WR的闭市价RM0.65来计算的话，假设说你再购买1千股的YTLPOWR-WR，再提交RM100转换成YTLPOWR-WB，你将总共拥有2千股的YTLPOWR-WB，而你的成本为RM0.425一股。之后，你再将所持有的凭单以RM1.25的价钱转换成母股（当然那将会是7月之后的事情了），你所持有的母股成本为RM1.675。再假设YTLPOWR的股价保持在上星期五闭市价的RM2.11，你将会有约26%的赚副，在大约一个月之内。
又或者，你选择不转换成目股，而在6月18日当YTLPOWR-WB上市时将所持凭单全部卖出。假设其凭单价钱维持在RM0.65，你的赚副为约53%，在约少于一个月之内。
必须注意的是这其中有很多的假设、如果与未知数：
*假设YTLPOWR-WB上市之后其股价能保持在RM0.65或以上。
*假设YTLPOWR的股价能在7月过后还维持在RM2.00以上。
*如果YTLPOWR-WR在28日之前的股价低于RM0.65，或更低，那将会更有吸引力。此计算没包括所有的其它费用如经纪佣金、印花税等。
写于五月二十五日二零零八年
如果你选择不卖的话，那你必须在6月4日之前将RM100交给YTLPOWR，以换取1千股的YTLPOWR-WB。之后，就看该凭单在市场的造化。
还有另一种选择，你可以增加你的持股。让我们来作一些数学游戏，以上星期五YTLPOWR-WR的闭市价RM0.65来计算的话，假设说你再购买1千股的YTLPOWR-WR，再提交RM100转换成YTLPOWR-WB，你将总共拥有2千股的YTLPOWR-WB，而你的成本为RM0.425一股。之后，你再将所持有的凭单以RM1.25的价钱转换成母股（当然那将会是7月之后的事情了），你所持有的母股成本为RM1.675。再假设YTLPOWR的股价保持在上星期五闭市价的RM2.11，你将会有约26%的赚副，在大约一个月之内。
又或者，你选择不转换成目股，而在6月18日当YTLPOWR-WB上市时将所持凭单全部卖出。假设其凭单价钱维持在RM0.65，你的赚副为约53%，在约少于一个月之内。
必须注意的是这其中有很多的假设、如果与未知数：
*假设YTLPOWR-WB上市之后其股价能保持在RM0.65或以上。
*假设YTLPOWR的股价能在7月过后还维持在RM2.00以上。
*如果YTLPOWR-WR在28日之前的股价低于RM0.65，或更低，那将会更有吸引力。此计算没包括所有的其它费用如经纪佣金、印花税等。
写于五月二十五日二零零八年
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