彩马发电（五）

最近有太多关于独立发电厂的负面消息，说得最多的当然是政府要向独立发电厂征收的暴利税。既然政府已经公布了暴利税是以独立发电厂的税息前盈利除以净资产（EBIT/net asset），而TANJONG也宣布了它可能每年必须支付高达RM70m的暴利税，就来预估一下TANJONG FY09的盈利吧。

以政府的ROA计算法作为依据，TANJONG在大马的三个独立发电厂Telok Gong, Pahlawan和Panglima的ROA为50%，19%与19%。这相等于RM85m的暴利税。

又，Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修，这将需要大约最高RM80m的维修费。

假设TANJONG的博彩业，休闲业与其它业务的PBIT可维持与FY2008年同样的赚利，即RM229m，-RM59m与RM43m。至于独立发电厂，假设大马的EBIT也跟去年一样，维持在RM439m，扣除掉Panglima的维修费用RM80m，剩下RM359m。同样的，假设埃及的发电厂也维持同样的赚副，即RM288m。

Pendekar Energy在1QFY09里贡献了RM77m与RM12m（归纳为联营公司）的EBIT，假设此赚副可维持到第四季，那Pendekar Energy的EBIT将为RM308m加RM48m。

将以上EBIT全部加起来，TANJONG FY2009的EBIT可达到RM1.2b。扣除掉利息支付与税务，净盈利大约为RM669m。再扣掉RM85m必须支付的暴利税，还剩RM584m。必须一提的是此净盈利并没有加入RM62m来自卖掉英国广播公司的一次过盈利。拿此净利除于TANJONG流通在外403.256m的股票，每股盈余为RM1.45。以上星期五TANJONG的闭市价RM12.30来计算的话，本益比为8.5，净股息率为5.7%。

TANJONG FY2004至FY2008的本益比界于9到15之间。假设TANJONG的本益比可以来到12，其股价应可来到RM17.40。

当然，还有一些风险没计算在内，如：
*TANJONG的盈利不如预测，包括Tropical Islands Resort的亏损广大、独立发电厂的开销过大与盈利减少、派彩率偏高。
*PPA的合约从新谈判，赚利被逼调低。
*暴利税比预算来得还要高。

The Edge
09-07-08: Tanjong: Buffeted by windfall tax uncertainties Tanjong plc's (RM12.20) share price has taken a beating of late. This can be attributed, in part, to weaker sentiment for the broader market. Growing concerns for the global economy as well as domestic political sabre rattling have certainly worried the market.

But perhaps even more unsettling is the government's recently announced windfall tax on independent power producers. A tax of 30% is to be charged on any excess return of assets over the threshold of 9%.

Based on the formula, Tanjong will have to pay up to RM80-RM90 million a year in windfall tax, on top of existing corporate taxes. The government has yet to fix an implementation date for the payment.

Based on our forecast, the tax will shave about 6%-11% off our earnings estimates for FYJan09-FY10. Whilst the absolute quantum is still manageable, it raises many questions about the viability of future power projects in the country. At the very least, it would certainly hurt future investments in the sector.

The development has shaken investor confidence in power companies, previously thought to be relatively defensive investments. Local investors may sit on the sidelines and wait to see how the windfall tax will eventually unfold.

But foreign investors have far less qualms about reducing their exposure. Tanjong had relatively high foreign shareholding of about 42% at end-May. Its share price has fallen from a high of RM19.90 about this time last year to the current RM12.20.

Trading at 8.3 times P/E with 6.1% net yield Assuming a half-year windfall tax impact in the current financial year, Tanjong's net profit will be adjusted to about RM594 million, including one-off investment gains of RM62 million. That's still up from RM554.5 million in FY08. Earnings should increase further to some RM622 million in FY10 or 154.3 sen per share.

Thus, Tanjong is trading at fairly attractive valuations of roughly 8.3 and 7.9 times our estimated earnings for FY09-FY10. Plus, we expect the company will continue to pay relatively generous dividends. Tanjong shares will trade ex-entitlement for a first interim dividend of 17.5 sen per share on July 16.

We estimate net dividends to total RM1 per share for FY09. That would earn shareholders a higher-than-market average net yield of 6.1%.
Nonetheless, investors may well stay away from power companies, at least for the near term. It is likely that further discussions will take place between the government and affected power companies.

Diversification of earnings base Positively, Tanjong has diversified its earnings base over the past few years. Contributions from the company's power assets overseas are estimated to account for about half of total power earnings.

Meanwhile, the rest of its businesses are expected to deliver steady earnings, going forward.

The company's gaming business generates good cash flow annually. Rising inflationary pressures may see slower sales per draw growth as consumer spending softens.

However, the gaming industry as a whole is expected to remain fairly resilient. We expect sales per draw to grow by roughly 3%-4% annually.
The Tropical Islands resort in Germany fared well in 1QFY09. Losses narrowed to RM2.2 million - down from RM10.2 million in 1QFY08 - on the back of higher visitor numbers and average spending. Net losses should narrow in the current year compared to FY08.

In short, we continue to like Tanjong's valuations and fundamentals, but the stock may not recover strongly in the near term, at least until uncertainties over the windfall tax are resolved.

The Star
Friday July 18, 2008
Tanjong to fork out RM70mil a year for windfall tax
KUALA LUMPUR: Based on its current earnings, Tanjong plc expects to fork out about RM70mil per year on windfall tax which was imposed recently on independent power producers (IPPs).

Chairman Datuk Robert Cheim said the windfall tax imposed by the Government would certainly have an impact on the company and all IPPs in the country.

“The tax also has an impact on the bond market. We have appealed to the Government and are waiting for the outcome. We hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the group’s AGM yesterday.
Last month, the Government announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets for IPPs effective July 1.

For the financial year ended Jan 31, Tanjong recorded a net profit of RM554.46mil on revenue of RM2.72bil.

On Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s call for power-purchase agreement renegotiations, Cheim said Tanjong was prepared to enter into negotiations after the windfall tax issue was resolved.

Meanwhile, he said the group would continuously evaluate opportunities for international expansion in the power-generation business via acquisition as a means to boost earnings.

“We are certainly buying more power assets. We want to grow more efficient and get economies of scale with our strategy,” he said, adding that the power sector would remain the group’s key contributor to revenue.

The group is currently looking at both greenfield and brownfield investment opportunities in the Middle East, Africa, India and South Asia.

Cheim said the acquisition of seven Globeleq Ltd power plants in Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka last November had immediate contribution to its revenue.

Tanjong wholly-owned subsidiary Powertek Bhd's power plant in Telok Gong, Malacca.

Tanjong currently has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.

On the progress of the group’s Tropical Islands project in Germany, Cheim said there were some improvements in operational efficiency and revenue-generation capacity.

“However, the longer-term prospects of Tropical Islands hinge on successfully attracting visitors from a wider target market and the availability of adequate accommodation for long distance travellers to enjoy the whole suite of offerings at Tropical Islands,” he said.

Tanjong was in advanced stages of negotiations with third parties willing to independently finance the development of accommodation facilities and market them internationally, he said.

“Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we hope to conclude these before the end of the year,” Cheim said.

The Edge
18-07-2008: Tanjong expects to incur RM70m per annum in windfall taxes KUALA LUMPUR: Tanjong plc may have to pay an estimated RM70 million per annum in windfall taxes but it remains confident that its power division will continue to be a key contributor to the group, said its chairman Datuk Robert Cheim.

He said the imposition of windfall tax had an impact on the company and all independent power producers (IPPs) in the country.

“It has an impact on the bond market as well. We have appealed to the government and hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the company’s AGM here yesterday.

The Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008, which came into effect on July 1, may also see a downgrade of bonds as the value of ringgit bonds and notes issued by IPPs is estimated at RM20 billion as of 2006.

A major cause of concern is an immediate adverse effect on the financial ability of the IPPs to meet loan obligations to their financiers and bondholders. The windfall tax will be 30% of earnings before interest and tax that are above the 9% threshold on return on assets.

In a statement, Cheim said the relevant appeals had been made by the Association of IPPs to the government. He said Tanjong was prepared to hold discussions with the government and Tenaga Nasional Bhd for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreement following the resolution of the issues relating to the windfall tax.

Cheim said Tanjong was on track with its strategy to be a major regional power company, with the strong contributions from its overseas power generation business segment. The group now has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.
“Our overseas business has grown significantly with the successful acquisition of seven Globeleq power plants (in the year ended Jan 31, 2008). These power plants have immediately contributed to our revenue and will be key to the group’s future earnings as they continue to provide us with strong recurring cash flows,” he said.

写于七月十八日二零零八年

彩马发电（四）

看到TANJONG的董事出售持股，虽不是很多，但还是必须注意，在此作个记录。

星洲
丹絨非執行董事邱德才出售0.0372%持股
2008-07-11
（吉隆坡）丹絨（TANJONG）非執行董事邱德才（譯音）在本月7日及9日通過公開市場，分別以每股12令吉54.18仙和12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士總共15萬股，或佔該公司總共0.0372%股權。

該公司發表文告說，邱氏在本月7日，以每股12令吉60仙脫售該公司每股面值7.5便士共6500股，或佔該公司0.0016%股權。

與此同時，他在7月9日則以每股12令吉54.18仙，售該公司每股面值7.5便士共14萬3500股，或佔該公司0.0356%股權。

写于七月十二日二零零八年

彩马发电（三）

TANJONG 1QFY2009的营业额年对年与季对季起了21%与3%。净盈利也在同时期起了25%与2%。必须一提的是此净盈利的比较已经扣除掉了RM62m来自卖掉英国广播公司的一次过盈利。

Globeleq的独立发电厂的营运盈利比上一季提高了26%，来到了RM200m，但此盈利却被更高的RM30m竞标成本而抵消了。其中三间TANJONG拥有百分百的独立发电厂贡献了RM77m的营运盈利，其余四间被归纳为联营的独立发电厂贡献了RM12m的净盈利。

这一季的博彩派彩率为64%，比上一季更好。休闲业的Tropical Islands Resort的亏损减低到RM2m。DE为162%。

买入的风险：
一．非核心的业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．马币走强与弱势美金将侵蚀盈利汇。
五．政府向独立发电厂征收30%暴利税。
六．Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修，这将需要大约RM70m至RM80m的维修费。
七．利率提高将提高借贷成本。
八．需要投入非常高的资本开销。

写于六月二十一日二零零八年

水电交加（十二）

关于YTLPOWR凭单的报道，凭单持有者必须注意的是对高股息股如YTLPOWR，持有它的凭单是比较吃亏的，因为凭单持有者没有股息。如果想要长期持有，还是转换成母股比较划算。

The Edge
Saturday July 12, 2008
YTL Power warrants fare weakly
THE performance of YTL Power International 2008/2018 warrant (YTLPowr-WB) since it made its debut on Bursa Malaysia in the middle of last month has not been encouraging due to the weak stock market and also on fears that the government’s imposition of a windfall tax will reduce the earnings of independent power producers (IPP) like YTL Power.

After reaching a high of 80.5 sen on the first day of trading, the warrant has been declining steadily. At the close of last Wednesday trading, YTLPowr-WB was trading at 51.5 sen while its mother share closed at RM1.77.

The company’s other warrant (YTLPowr-WA) closed at 55.5 sen.
YTL Power is Malaysia’s oldest independent power producer. It is also the concession holder of Wessex Water in Britain.

YTL Power also owns power assets in Indonesia and Australia among others. In the first nine months of financial year 2008 ended March 31, 2008,
YTL Power recorded a marginal 1.3% increase in net profit to RM758.2mil from RM748.5mil the same period last financial year.

Revenue grew 6.9% to RM3.1bil from RM2.9bil the corresponding period a year ago.

YTL Power actually suffered a decline in net profit in the third quarter to RM277.6mil from RM305.7mil a year ago.

This was due to the absence of any gain on disposal of investment. In the previous financial year, YTL Power recorded a gain of disposal of quoted investment of some RM88.9mil.

If the gain on investment was excluded, YTL Power’s profit actually 28% higher for the third quarter compared with last financial year.
As at the end of March 2008, the net asset per share of YTL Power was RM1.15.

The Government has gazetted the “Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008” on Malaysian IPPs which came into effect on July 1. Under this order, the Government decided to charge IPPs a 30% windfall tax where the return on assets exceeds 9%.
This development has dampened the share price of IPPs like YTL Power in the last few weeks.

YTLPowr-WB was born out of YTL Power’s offer of up to 2.2 billion new warrants for sale to its shareholders at 10 sen per warrant on a renounceable basis based on one new warrant for every three existing ordinary shares held.
A total of 1.78 billion YTLPowr-WB was issued.

YTLPowr-WB is now trading at a slight discount.
This is not uncommon for warrants of YTL Power as its other warrant, YTLPowr-WA, had often been traded at a discount in the past.
This is probably due to the fact that the company is a good dividend paymaster.

As warrantholders are not entitled to dividend, high dividend yield will have a negative impact on the value of the warrants.

As YTLPowr-WA and YTLPowr-WB are both trading at a discount with almost similar level of gearing and exercise price, investors are likely to select the warrant with higher discount which at the current prices belong to YTLPowr-WA.

Shareholders of YTL Power can opt to sell the mother share and simultaneously purchase the warrant for exercise to enjoy risk free arbitrage gain when the discount level is large enough to cover transaction and finance charges.

Shareholders should take advantage of the company’s share buyback exercise to lock in the risk free gain whenever possible.

写于七月十二日二零零八年

水电交加（十一）

YTLPOWR宣布进军中国水务业，还必须有更多的信息才能做出评估。

The Edge
19-06-2008: YTL ventures into China KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corporation Bhd is venturing into China via a strategic tie-up with Asia Environment Holdings Ltd (AEH) to collaborate in the fast-growing and lucrative water industry.

In a statement, YTL said the two companies had entered into an agreement yesterday to draw on the group’s water expertise, branding and financial strength and AEH’s local knowledge and proven execution skills in China.

AEH, which is listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, provides water and wastewater treatment solutions, manufactures, fabricates, sells and installs generic and customised equipment for water and wastewater treatment systems.

AEH has also undertaken build-operate-transfer (BOT) water projects in China and is expected to operate 11 BOT projects by the end of 2008.
YTL said the collaboration would create a formidable force in the Chinese water industry, which is expected to see investments of RMB1 trillion (RM470 billion) from 2006-2010, according to the Ministry of Construction in China.

YTL said in the framework agreement, its subsidiary Wessex Water Sdn Bhd would enter into an exclusive technical agreement with AEH to provide technical advisory and consultancy services to AEH on an exclusive basis in China.

It said Wessex Water would be able to draw upon the extensive experience of its UK affiliate in managing water supply and sewerage in parts of south-west and southern England.

YTL said AEH had agreed to give YTL a first right of refusal to collaborate in all future water-related projects, including equipment manufacture, design, EPC and BOTs in China.

It said it had been estimated that two-thirds of China’s water resources were polluted, a problem exacerbated by low water resources per capita and high water leakages amounting to 28%.

YTL said the Chinese government was putting a greater emphasis on improving water standards in China and had encouraged higher water tariffs as a means of attracting much needed investments in the Chinese water industry.

“This is the right time to be entering the China water market. We will be able to leverage our expertise and Asia Environment’s strong China presence in this mutually beneficial alliance,” said YTL chief executive officer Tan Sri Francis Yeoh.

写于七月七日二零零八年

彩马发电（二）

我曾经在2006年发表过对TANJONG的看法，当年我不看好它在Tropical Islands Resort的投资。如今，我还是持有相同的看法。虽然事隔两年，Tropical Islands Resort还是在亏损的状况中，唯一值得庆幸的是它的营运亏损已经从FY2006年占净盈利的-12.1%束减到FY2008年的-5.9%。

除了休闲业以外，TANJONG还拥有67%的股份在Menara Maxis，以及50%的股份在TGV Cinemas。这些产业对TANJONG的营业额与赚利的贡献并不显著，就不多谈了。

TANJONG的其中一个强劲的现金流是来自1991年收购的Pan Malaysia Pools Sdn Bhd，也就是目前大家比较收悉的大马彩。大马彩是马来西亚最小的博彩公司，占市场大约23.8%份额。虽然大马彩提供持续的现金流给TANJONG，但以马来西亚今日的博彩业来看，成长是非常的有限的。

所以，我这里要说的是TANJONG的独立发电厂业务。TANJONG在马来西亚拥有三间独立发电厂，分别是Telok Gong，Pahlawan以及Panglima，总电力为1,490MW。

在2005年，TANJONG收购了Taweelah Asia Power Co的10%股权，此公司目前拥有928MW的发电厂与92MIGD的海水淡化厂，预计到了2008年尾，当第二期完工了之后，将会有2,000MW的电力，海水淡化的容量也会增加至160MGID。

同年，TANJONG也收购了两间座落在埃及的独立发电厂，Suez Gulf与Port Said East，总电力为1,366MW。

当然，最振奋人心的是在2007年尾，TANJONG的子公司Pendekar Energy收购了55%股权的Globeleq Ltd。此公司拥有七间独立发电厂分别座落在埃及，孟加拉，巴基斯坦以及斯里兰卡，总电力为1,810MW。这也是为什么我再次重提TANJONG的最大原因。此收购也将TANJONG的总电力从之前的2,856MW提升到3,951MW。

看了TANJONG的业务，再来看TANJONG的业绩。根据TANJONG FY2008的年报，发电厂贡献了大约67.7%的总营业额与77.4%的营业盈利。这其中有39.5%的营业额是来自本地发电厂，24.3%来自埃及发电厂，以及4%来自Pendekar Energy。以营业盈利来分析的话，其中43.9%的盈利来自本地发电厂，28.8%贡献自埃及发电厂，刚被收购的Pendekar Energy虽然只纳入了两个月的业绩也提供了4.8%的盈利。

以下几点必须注意：
一．非核心业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．弱势美金汇率将影响赚利。

写于五月十二日二零零八年

那行出状元？

很久没发表了，因为最近电脑出了些状况，让我不见了六个月的资料，也就是说，从今年一月到六月的资料全被删除了。所以，近半个月都在用种种的方法来恢复重要的资料，只可惜功效不大，很多资料就此永远找不回了。这真的痛，但事实无法改变，最近已经开始了重新寻找及输入已遗失的资料，有些资料可能无法再找回，或已经忘记，但这也是无可奈何的。

说回股票，近来马股市大跌，不外乎几个原因。外围因素包括美国经济不景气，原油、原产品价钱高涨、全世界的高通膨降临等。国内，政府在六月大量的调高原油价，通膨创历年新高，利率可能在下半年调高，政治的动荡好像一场剧情复杂的连续剧等都在在的影响着大马的股市走向。

在熊市的来临，身为投资者的我们要如何投资、如何选股呢？

让我们来试试由上至下的方式（top-down approach）。首先，GLCs（政府相关公司）就免了吧，对一个没有远见，没有规划，贪污腐败的大股东，投资者当然是能免则免。通货膨胀的压力与利率将可能在下半年调高将逼使消费者紧束腰包，这将冲击银行的贷款与提高坏账、贷款利率的提高将影响产业与气车的销售。天然气的涨价与美元的弱势将侵蚀手套制造业。外需的减少将使电子工业减少订单。政府消减开销将影响建筑与相关行业。政府缺钱，很可能会再接下来的财政预算案再次的向罪恶股如香烟与酒类征收更高的税务。

随便写写都可以列出一大堆目前不适合投资的行业，倒不如想想还有什么行业值得关注。就我个人的看法，投资在受益于高原产品溢价的行业如钢铁、洋灰、棕油、原油等的时机已过，投资者如此刻冒冒然然进场买进这些行业的股票，可能会买在高处。目前，我只会投资在那些公司盈利比较确定、容易预测，或者是可以将成本转嫁给其客户的公司，以及那些就算是在高通膨消费者还是必须消费的行业。

储电待发？（一）

暴利税对独立发电厂的净利影响到底有多大？看了一大堆的报道，但还是整理不出一个所以然来，看来只有等待善变的政府公布进一步的详情之后再作打算。

The Edge
09-06-2008: Windfall tax holds back PPA re-negotiations PETALING JAYA: Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s proposed re-negotiation with independent power producers (IPPs) over their power purchase agreements (PPAs) may now be held back following the imposition of a windfall tax on the IPPs, analysts said.

“The windfall tax (imposed on IPPs) is an indication that the renegotiation on the PPAs is a no-go. The IPPs were not going to budge but they may do so now because of the windfall tax,” said an analyst.

The analyst said IPPs such as YTL Power International Bhd and Genting Bhd were unlikely to be badly hit as most of YTL Power’s earnings came from Wessex Waters while power made up a small portion of Genting group’s earnings. However, IPPs such as Tanjong plc and MMC Corporation Bhd may be affected more.

“Going forward, the windfall tax will be imposed until the IPPs budge,” said the local analyst, adding that the first generation of IPPs were being pushed to a corner. Previous attempts to re-negotiate the PPAs had failed.

Another analyst said the IPPs would be even less predisposed to enter into re-negotiations with Tenaga now that the government had imposed the windfall tax.

“The government cannot force them to accept the terms. The IPPs will drag the negotiations,” he said, adding that the government was seen to be favouring Tenaga. The PPA for the first generation of IPPs would expire in eight years.

The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.

It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.

“If we use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings,” analyst said.

Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.

Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.

The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.

According to analyst’s estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.

Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.

While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.

星洲
發電廠須繳暴利稅（吉隆坡4日訊）政府將對獨立發電廠（IPP）及棕油廠實施暴利稅，分析師認為，新措施將打擊國內發電業者盈利，並將影響市場及投資意願。《The Edge》財經日報引述消息指出，政府或對獨立發電廠的本地營業額，征收高達5%暴利稅。國內獨立發電廠從國家能源（TENAGA）取得的營業額約達106億令吉，5%稅務將為政府帶來5億3100萬令吉收入。政府每年對電力領域提供的天然氣補貼達137億令吉，佔龐大補貼的3.9%。姚金龍指出，儘管實施暴利稅將改善政府財務狀況，但它並非親商政策，並將衝擊投資意願。“發電廠業者已繳付公司稅，額外稅務對它們不公平。”政府或應從獨立發電廠合約著手，修改收費架構。對獨立發電廠實施暴利稅是不可思議的，因為該領域業者並沒錄得高額盈利。該行指出，獨立發電廠雖獲國能及馬石油（Petronas）補貼，不過它們傾向于享有穩定燃油價格，而非獲取暴利。

Business Times
7-6-2008
Windfall TaxSOME power producers may be able to pass on the cost of a windfall tax to Tenaga Nasional Bhd (TNB). This is due to a clause in their power purchase agreements (PPAs) with TNB. PPAs are long-term contracts under which TNB agrees to buy power from the IPPs."Of course, then it is up to the IPPs to decide whether they pass it on or not. It's on a voluntary basis," Dr Philip Tan, president of the Association of the Independent Power Producers of Malaysia, or Persatuan Nasional Penjanakuasa Bebas Malaysia (Penjanabebas), told Business Times in a telephone interview.

Starting July 1, IPPs and oil palm planters will be subjected to a windfall tax. The tax is part of the government's plan to cut fuel subsidies that have soared because of record high crude oil prices.Tan explained that the pass-on clause could kick in because the tax is specific to the power sector and not across all businesses.However, he said he could not state with certainty the number of PPAs with such a clause because he was not privy to information in all the agreements.The association's council members had met on Wednesday to discuss the windfall tax.According to the government, IPPs will be charged a 30 per cent tax on return of assets (ROA) that exceeds nine per cent in their audited accounts.Tan said the association will write to the Ministry of Finance to seek clarification on how to calculate the tax."If it is based on normal accounting standards, then it means that older IPPs and IPPs which are conscientious enough to pay off their loans fast will bear the brunt of it," he said.ROA shows how well a company uses its assets to make profits, with a higher percentage indicating greater efficiency. This is because it shows the company makes more money on less investment.The ROA is derived by dividing net profit by total assets."It would be more equitable if it was net profit divided by original assets, but we want to check with the ministry on their formula," Tan said.The tax will only be chargeable next year when the audited accounts are drawn up."The windfall tax actually discourages IPPs from being efficient. There is no incentive for us to control costs," Tan said.

The Star
Thursday June 12, 2008
IPPs face uncertainty over windfall tax
PETALING JAYA: The independent power producers (IPPs) are still in the dark over how the windfall tax announced by the Government last Wednesday will be administered on them.

On June 4, the Government announced that a windfall tax of 30% would be imposed on the IPPs from July 1 following an announcement that fuel prices and electricity tariff would also be raised due to the high price of crude oil.

Questions that have arisen include the return on asset (ROA) definition, the frequency of the tax, the amount to be raised from the tax and whether it would be imposed on all IPPs or only on those in the peninsula.

There are still a number of undefined variables that need to be spelt out before analyst can make an accurate assessment of the potential impact on the IPPs.

A quick check with a few IPPs revealed that they're still waiting for the official formula from the Government. According to press reports, some IPPs are even looking at the possibility of asking for an extension of their concession in return for this tax payment,” she said.

Although officials at the Economic Planning Unit had intimated that earnings before interest and tax would be used to derive the ROA for the computation of the windfall tax, “it did not spell out the variable in the denominator, which some parties think could be fixed assets instead of the usual total assets”.

The frequency of the tax also remained unclear but clarification should come through by year-end since the companies needed to account for these taxes when finalising their financial accounts.

There might be greater challenges for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreements between Tenaga Nasional Bhd and the IPPs if the tax were successfully implemented.

The Edge
12-06-2008: Bigger potential impact from windfall tax on IPPs KUALA LUMPUR: The 30% windfall tax on independent power producers (IPPs) could potentially result in bigger cuts in earnings than its earlier estimates of 1% to 5%.

It stated in a report that YTL Power’s earnings could be cut by 6% to 7%; while Tanjong’s earnings could see a decline of 4% to 5% assuming the windfall tax is based on total assets.

If use fixed assets as the base, the potential impact is greater, with possibly a 7% to 8% cut in YTL Power’s earnings and an 11% to 12% reduction in Tanjong’s earnings.

Last Wednesday, Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets (ROA) for IPPs, which will swing into effect on July 1, 2008.

Even though it has been a week since the announcement was made, the exact definition of ROA has not been clarified and it remains uncertain how the windfall tax will be calculated or what is its proposed mechanism.

The report also said Economic Planning Unit (EPU) officials have hinted that earnings before interest and tax (Ebit) will be used to compute the ROA, but it was not revealed whether fixed assets or total assets will be used for the computation.

Estimates on potential windfall tax for major IPPs, Sime Darby and Malakoff’s Tanjung Gemuk plant in Port Dickson tops the list in terms of ROA, which came up to 28.3% if calculated based on total assets and 46% on fixed assets.

Should the windfall tax be calculated based on total assets, YTL Power’s plants in Terengganu and Johor have the second highest ROA at 19.3%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 19%.
If based on fixed assets, Tanjong’s Alor Gajah plant has a ROA of 41.5%; followed by Genting Sanyen’s Kuala Selangor plant at 26.7%.

While the government estimates that the windfall tax on IPPs could add RM600 million to its income, calculating the tax based on fixed assets ROA would amount to 91% of the estimated figure, while total assets ROA would amount to 55%.

写于六月十日二零零八年

水电交加（十）

YTLPOWR Q3FY08的营业额比起去年同季起了10%，比上一季起了6%。相对于同时期的净盈利起了28%与13%，当然，这是在扣除了Q3FY07 RM88.9m的一次过盈利之后的比较。本地发电站在这一季再次下滑1.6%，PT Java的发电站成长了10%，Wessex Water也成长了8.6%。

ROE为17%，DE为251%。净盈利率维持在24%。拥有每股141.2sen的现金。净股息率为6.9%。目前手头上有大约2.0%的财库股，已经足够分派库存股。

投资的风险：
一．DE提高了23%。
二．还是不断的发出ESOS、凭单与债卷转换。
三．超多的凭单股数 将会稀释约26%的每股盈余。

写于五月三十一日二零零八年

财报风云（三）

资产负债表
资产负债表可以显示一家公司在过去的特定日（每季的最后一天或每财政年的最后一天），所拥有的资产及负债:
- 现金库存充裕否？
- 存货多不多？
- 房舍丶土地丶厂房等固定资产多不多？
- 公司资产规模有多大？
- 欠债内容是什么，短期债务还是长期债务多？
- 欠债多不多？
- 保留的盈余丰不丰富？

资产负债表包括资产丶负债与股东权益。

资产可分为几大类：
- 流动资产
=> 包括现金及约当现金（银行存款丶证卷丶银行存单丶短期债卷）丶短期投资（股票丶共同基金）丶应收帐款丶存货（仓库内的原料丶半成品丶制成品）丶预付款项等，在一年内或一个营业周期内可转变成为现金的资产。
-> 一般而言，现金充裕的公司，是属于经营型态较为保守的公司，缺点是公司可能目前没有新事业的开发计划，或找不到新的营运方向。

- 固定资产
=> 包括土地丶厂房丶办公与机器设备丶预付设备款丶递延费用丶递延所得税（公司预缴之所得税税金）等有形的资产，而企业为了提高竞争力买入发明权丶商标权丶箸作权等无形资产，也都是企业的固定资产。

负债可区分为流动负债，长期负债与其它负债：
- 流动负债
=> 公司在一年内必须偿还的负债，主要内容是短期借款丶应付帐款丶预收款丶应付所得税丶应付费用等。

- 长期负债
=> 超过一年以上的长期债务，大多是银行借款丶发行公司债等。

- 其它负债
=> 包括退休金丶递延所得税及可递延的贷款等。

股东权益就是一家公司股东持有的实际价值，也就是总资产减总负债的余额。一家经营绩效好的公司，股东权益会越来越高，也就是经营者替股东赚近了更多的资产。股东权益的组成项目有股本丶资本公积丶保留盈余等。
- 股本
=> 指股东对企业所投入的资本总额。
=> 股本大有时意谓着经营难度提高，一家公司有大股本后，要长期提供良好的盈余相对不易，这些公司可能面临了成长的极限，不易再有突破性的发展。

- 资本公积
=> 非由营运活动产生的收入，主要是股票溢价收入丶资产重估丶捐赠等。

- 保留盈余或累计亏损
=> 企业保留帐上未分配的盈余。
=> 一家资本公积及保留盈余高的公司，表示公司以往的经营绩效佳，才能累积了盈余和公积，就算是碰到一丶两年的不景气，投资人仍可能由公司以往所保留的盈余和公积来配股丶配息。

- 其它
=> 包括累积换算调整数（外币交易等所产生的盈亏）丶库藏股票丶投资损失等。
=> 许多上市公司实施库藏股，优点是买回自家股票注销资本，长期而言，可提高每股盈余l但由于库藏股是以公司资金买入，也会减少使用资金，影响公司的成长动能。

全利双赢？（六）

QL Q3FY08的营业额年对年的起了21%，海产加工起了4%，棕油榨取大起59%以及家禽养殖也起了16%。同时期的净盈利也起了27%，海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖也分别起了8%丶8%与39%。

根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额与盈利的增加是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。至于棕油榨取的增高是因为更高的CPO价钱，跟去年同时期相比，CPO的价钱已提高了74%。虽然棕油榨取的营业额大起59%，但净盈利只增加8%，那是因为棕油榨取率（FFB）下跌了11%以及较高的成本与竞争激烈所至。家禽养殖的营业额与盈利的增加跟海产加工一样，都是因为产量提高以及更高的售价所至。

因为QL的行业循环性很高，尤其是海产加工与棕油榨取，因此，季对季的业绩比较意义不大，就此略过。

3QFY2008的ROE为23%，ROIC为12%，D/E为 95%，必须注意。

写于三月十三日二零零八年

水电交加（九）

YTLPOWR-WR终于在5月21日上市。假设说你在5月13日之前拥有3千股的YTLPOWR，那在5月21日就会有1千股的YTLPOWR-WR存入你的户口里。如果你在21日当天选择将此1千股给卖了，那你可能已经RM800袋袋平安了。

如果你选择不卖的话，那你必须在6月4日之前将RM100交给YTLPOWR，以换取1千股的YTLPOWR-WB。之后，就看该凭单在市场的造化。

还有另一种选择，你可以增加你的持股。让我们来作一些数学游戏，以上星期五YTLPOWR-WR的闭市价RM0.65来计算的话，假设说你再购买1千股的YTLPOWR-WR，再提交RM100转换成YTLPOWR-WB，你将总共拥有2千股的YTLPOWR-WB，而你的成本为RM0.425一股。之后，你再将所持有的凭单以RM1.25的价钱转换成母股（当然那将会是7月之后的事情了），你所持有的母股成本为RM1.675。再假设YTLPOWR的股价保持在上星期五闭市价的RM2.11，你将会有约26%的赚副，在大约一个月之内。

又或者，你选择不转换成目股，而在6月18日当YTLPOWR-WB上市时将所持凭单全部卖出。假设其凭单价钱维持在RM0.65，你的赚副为约53%，在约少于一个月之内。

必须注意的是这其中有很多的假设、如果与未知数：
*假设YTLPOWR-WB上市之后其股价能保持在RM0.65或以上。
*假设YTLPOWR的股价能在7月过后还维持在RM2.00以上。
*如果YTLPOWR-WR在28日之前的股价低于RM0.65，或更低，那将会更有吸引力。此计算没包括所有的其它费用如经纪佣金、印花税等。

写于五月二十五日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（十二）

ONASTEL在5月15日公布了 Q1FY08的业绩。营业额年对年与季对季的起了5%与15%，净盈利在同时间也起了6%与60%。GI与PPGI的营业额跌了11%，同时期的CRC的营业额却起了23%。CRC的销量增长以及更高的售价使这一季的业绩不错。有一点值得注意的是这季的赚率比上一季提高了，根据公司的解释，因为公司开始运用了每月定价，之前是每季定价。

ONASTEL也提议公司改名为CSC Steel Holdings Berhad，希望可借助CSC母公司在国际的信誉来提高自身的知名度。

目前的ONASTEL拥有稳健的财务报表，低负债，19.9sen的净现金、与5.8%的净股息。政府已经在5月9日宣布取消了钢铁顶价，以让钢铁价钱自由浮动，这将惠及ONASTEL，公司可以调高CRC的价钱，而且不需再向Megasteel购买较贵的HRC。

最后，投资者还是必须关注钢铁原料成本与原油价的持续高涨可能会侵蚀到ONASTEL的赚副。还有Lembaga Tabung Haji 5月正在出货，虽然不多，还是必须留意。

硬如钢铁（十一）

另两则好消息，来自The Edge和The Star。
13-05-2008
Steel exporters to benefit from removal of restrictions KUALA LUMPUR: Steel-related stocks on Bursa Malaysia rose on the government’s move last week to free up all restrictions on the industry.
Last Friday, the government announced the lifting of ceiling prices of steel bars and billets. It also announced the lifting of restrictions on imports and exports of long steel products such as bars and rods.

Previously, there was a cap on ceiling prices of steel and the building material was not allowed to be exported while imports were restricted.
Analysts said the abolition of ceiling prices of bars and billets would further enhance the transparency issue that has plagued the industry while the lifting of import restrictions would address concerns on the shortage of certain steel products and create a more competitive pricing environment.

The liberalisation of exports would also be positive for the local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage of the material, they said.

Local players could increase exports without the need to dilute their domestic market share, as their products remain competitive, given the logistic advantage, the acute global shortage and possibility of the government introducing non-barrier tariff on steel imports.

“We also reckon that the government may introduce local standard or testing requirements on imported steel products to safeguard public interest and safety, hence non-tariff barrier to imports,” it said.
The research house said that with the void caused by China’s recent export tariff hike to 25%, the shortage of billets was now becoming more critical and Malaysian players had already stepped in to fill the role.
The research house said it was reverting to a 10 times steel price earnings ratio (PER) multiple on FY09 numbers, and reiterated its ultra bullish view on Malaysia’s long steel sector.

It said the liberalisation also put an end to its concern on the possible export restrictions as well as tightening of the steel price control mechanism for steel products, excusing good performance posted by steel mills.

“Nonetheless, we make no changes to our earlier decision to roll over our valuation to the more conservative FY09 estimates which are more sustainable and reasonable, as FY08 margin was exceptional thus it may not be a good benchmark for valuation purposes,” it said.

Overall, steel stocks were still trading at attractive single-digit PER on FY09 numbers despite positive developments.

The liberalisation of the price control was not surprising, and indeed was timely as international steel bars and billets were already trading at about RM3,000 and RM2,700 per tonne respectively, compared to the domestic ceiling prices of RM2,400 and RM2,000 per tonne for selected grades.

It said the price disparity had given rise to hoarding and artificial imposition of hidden charges on top of the domestic ceiling prices.

“This should offset lower domestic sales as local buyers may potentially switch to imported bars and billets. Exports to new destinations also carry the benefit of Malaysian tax rebates,” it said.

It remained concerned on the sourcing of quality steel from foreign markets, adding that the difficulty in timely sourcing of steel bars and billets, volatile steel prices and the array of multiple grades of steel which may be non-compliant with local industry standards are their concerns for domestic contractors and developers.

“As long as these external factors remain amid the ease of imports, we believe local steel producers will still mainly cater to the domestic market at global prices,” it said.

Wednesday May 14, 2008
Government to issue circular on steel price calculation
KUALA LUMPUR: The Finance Ministry will be soon issuing a circular on the price variation calculation for steel following the abolishment of the ceiling price for steel on Monday.

In a statement yesterday, the ministry said contractors carrying out conventional government projects could apply for a price variation on their contract based on the current steel price.

“The application by contractors would have to be through the implementing agency as what is in practice now,” the statement said.
The new price calculation mechanism is also effective May 12.
The ministry said that the conventional contracts for civil and construction works had a clause on price variation.

It said for civil works, the price variation calculation is based on the transaction price. This method of calculation would be continued.
For construction projects, the ministry said the calculation of price was based on the cost of 15 building materials, including steel.
This method of calculation would be revised where the suggested price variation calculation for steel will be based on the current market price and separately calculated from the indices of other building materials prices.

For government projects under the design and build category, there is no clause on price variation currently. In order to reduce the risk in price variation that is absorbed by the contractor, this category of contracts would have a price variation clause specially for steel, the statement said. – Bernama

写于五月十四日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（十）

嘿！好消息来了。没有顶价的限制，市场可以自由进出口钢铁，这也解释为什么过去几天钢铁股一直在涨。

CFriday May 9, 2008 MYT 7:17:31 PM
No more ceiling price for steel
PUTRAJAYA: The ceiling price on steel will be abolished effective Monday.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said with the abolishment, contractors for conventional projects under the Government could now apply for a change in the price of their contract based on the market price for steel.

"Importers of steel will now be exempted from applying for an import licence and paying import duties. Local steel manufacturers will be allowed to export their products.

"The Government has received many complaints relating to the rising prices of steel products, such as steel billet and bars, in the wake of the difficulty of obtaining supply fixed at the ceiling price.

"This is because the global price for steel is now higher than that in the local market. This has given a negative impact on the construction industry, where it will affect the implementation of the country's development projects," he said Friday in a statement here.

This, according to Abdullah, was the reason the Cabinet decided to liberalise the prices of steel products.

The liberalisation, he said, was in line with the Government's intention to ensure that the country's development process proceeded smoothly."It will also ensure that the market for steel products is more transparent and efficient," he said.

写于五月九日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（九）

CIMB Research Report的报道。其实没什么新见解，钢铁的价钱应该会稳健至到年尾。就我个人而言，我想知道到底是钢铁的原料价钱起得比较快还是钢铁的售价会起得比较快，我相信接下来几季的钢铁公司季报就会有答案了。

Steel prices to remain high. In just three months, the price of steel scrap has gone up by more than 50% to about US$620 per tonne. The price of another main raw material, coking coal, is also on an uptrend.

Recently, BHP Billiton, the leading Australian miner, got steel millers to agree to triple its coking coal prices. Given the escalating raw material prices, we believe steel prices will remain high as millers will pass on the rising costs to their customers. With international steel prices likely to remain on their upward trajectory, we believe the earnings momentum of the local steel millers will be sustainable over the next 6-9 months.

Global demand remains robust. Admittedly, delays in various mega projects on the local front may dampen domestic demand. However, demand for steel remains robust in the international market. The International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts global apparent steel consumption to grow by 6.7% from 1,202mt in 2007 to 1,282m mt in 2008, buoyed by growth of emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East.

China to continue export curbs. Despite the attractive international prices, China’s Iron and Steel Association expect exports from China to fall from 63m tonnes in 2007 to about 36m tonnes this year. This is because average steel consumption in China is estimated to grow at a faster pace than production.

写于五月七日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（八）

一篇关于ONASTEL的部分报道，取自南洋商报。个人认为如果只是为了高股息而买入ONASTEL，那不如不买。

2008-4-28
国内最大冷扎钢卷厂商。彦钢周息率料可观
彦钢控股是国内最大冷扎钢卷厂商，除了冷扎钢卷，该集团也生产镀锌钢铁及预涂漆镀锌钢铁。

目前，该集团这3项产品的年产能，分别是62万4千公吨丶24万公吨及12万公吨。事实上，该集团刚于去年4月，完成将冷扎钢卷年产能提高40%至62万4千公吨的计划。上述增产计划的全面影响，将从2008财政年（截至08年12月31日）开始彰显。不过，国家经济放缓，以及令吉对美元汇率预计走强，将局部抵消上述利好因素。

成本上扬侵蚀赚幅
此外，原料成本及营运成本上扬，也将侵蚀彦钢控股的赚幅，因此虽然彦钢控股的营业额预料将按年增长14%，但净盈利的按年增幅预计只有8%。

为了加强长期的竞争力，该集团也计划朝向高增值产品发展，并获得其大股东中国钢铁的鼎力相助。

很大程度上，市场已消化了国内基建计划可能展延或延迟完工，以及营运成本扬升的负面因素。而且，彦钢控股8至10%的周息率相当吸引人，并预料可获得持续，这应可为彦钢控股的股价提供支撑。

写于五月二日二零零八年

名人名言（四）

公司回购自身的股票就一定是好事吗？看看David Pauly怎么说。

The skinny on buybacks :-
Ø Investors have somehow accepted the notion that stock buybacks are good for them.

Ø Often a company with bad news to tell couples it with a plan to repurchase some of its shares - and, in knee-jerk fashion, the stock price goes up instead of down. Hyped as a device to increase EPS and therefore, stock prices buybacks have soared.

Ø If companies actually can’t find investment promising reasonable returns, why not give the extra cash to shareholders? Stockholders could use the money to seek higher returns on their own. Analysts and chief executive officers talk nonsense when they insist that buybacks ‘return’ money to shareholders.

Ø Companies may use repurchases of shares as a cover for poor earnings growth.Many big investors, continue to pressure companies to buy back their shares. Better to urge them to make more imaginative use of their cash.

是投资，不是炒股！

前几天的一个晚上，有个来自中国的同事来敲我的房间门，老实说，我不是很喜欢当我在酒店留宿的时候有人来我房间，尤其是我在阅读的时候。但因刚刚放工时才跟他搭同一辆车子回酒店，他知道我在房间内，还真不能装作不在，所以只好开门让他进来。

这家伙一进入我的房间，我就后悔了。原来他的手提电脑在他房间内不能无线上网，要求我帮忙看一下。本来，同事一场（虽然不是很熟),帮他做一下也没什么大不了，但这家伙一进来，就好像是来参观我的房间似的每个角落都在查看，还真以为他遗失了什么东西在我的房间似的。更甚的是给他发现了我的一些投资书籍，他回过头对我说：“原来你也炒股。”
我更正他，“我不是炒股，是投资！”
“我在大陆也有炒股，你炒什么股阿？”他不理会我的更正继续发问。
“我是在投资，长期投资。”我再次的更正他，然后将他的电脑丢还他，“弄好了。”之后将他推出房外，马上关上房门。

虽然目前身在越南，但我想说的却是中国。近年来中国经济起飞，很多中国人真的都在炒股。我记得在四、五年前，当我身在上海最大的书局 - 上海书城时，当时关于投资的书籍并不多见。去年中，当我重游上海书城时，投资书籍真可说是多到眼花缭乱，可见中国人的转变。

话说回来，为什么我一直在强调投资而不是炒股？这其中，我要强调的不是字眼的问题，而是心态的问题。我个人非常的认为，没有运用正确的心态来买股票，那你很可能真的是在赌博、或像我那中国朋友所谓的炒股。要记得，能在股市中快速致富的人可说是少之又少。大多数的短期股票买卖者，长期来说，多数都是输家。只有以正确的心态，将股票买卖当作是一门自己拥有的生意，经过认真的评估，然后再以适当的价钱买入，长期下来，你才能有机会赚钱，你只会放弃此生意当公司的某些基本因素开始改变。

为什么用拥有作生意的心态买股票赚钱的机率比较大呢？因为当你以此心态买股，你会更注重公司的基本面如赚利、公司前景等，而不是只看公司的股票价钱。

那，是不是只要注重公司的基本面与前景，投资就一定赚钱？其实，那倒未必，但至少可以保本，要知道只要你不亏，你股票赚钱的机率就会相对的提高。

财报风云（二）

损益表
损益表可以看出上市公司过去一段经营期间（一季丶或一年）营运状况，可从报表中看出一家公司下列的营运情况：
- 生意好不好丶营业额有多大？
- 购料成本如何？合不合理？
- 管销费用会不会过高？
- 本业营运到底赚不赚钱？
- 来自非本业（列如投资股票）的利润有多少？
- 来自非本业的支出规模如何？
- 邀税之后，是不是真的有赚钱？
- 身为股东，你是否可以分红？

损益表包括下列事项（名称或有不同）：
- 销货收入丶又称营业收入丶总营收丶总收入丶销货总额（revenue）。指一家公司在一段时间内因为销售货品或提供服务所收到的金额。

- 营业成本丶又称成本或销售成本（cost of sales）。就是企业为了生产产品所支付的原料成本支出。包括购买原物料丶生产及制造设备的必要支出丶生产线人员的工资丶加班费丶产品完成包装丶运送费丶油费丶产品权利金或商标费用等。

- 营业毛利（gross profit） = 营业收入 – 营业成本。营业毛利率可以显示企业的产品是否真的有竞争力。

- 营业费用（distribution expense + administration expenses + finance costs）丶又称管销费用丶销货费用丶营业支出。企业为了产品销售或服务提供所应负担的管理及销售等费用，包括业务员的佣金丶训练费丶行政人员的薪资丶退休金丶广告费丶办公室租金丶研发费用丶固定资产的折旧丶无形资产（如商誉）摊销等。

- 营业净利丶又称营业利益（operating profit）。 = 营业毛利 – 营业费用。

- 营业外收入（other income）。也就是非营业活动产生的收入，如短期投资的股票丶债卷等产生的利益，或出售长期投资的产业之后扣除帐面成本的利得，或是股利丶利息丶租金等的收入。

- 营业外费用（other expenses）。常见的营业外费用如银行借款的利息支出丶投资股票或债卷的亏损，存货或兌换外币产生的损失等。除外，天然灾害所造成的损失也可归类在此项目。

- 税前净利（profit before tax）。显示企业的总经营能力。
所得税（tax expense）。

- 净利（net profit）。

- 每股盈余丶或称每股净利（EPS）。
= 净利 / 上市公司发行流通在外的股数
具有稀释普通股权益的证卷，一般包括可转换特别股丶可转换公司债丶认股权证等，也就是上述证卷持有人，可于到期后将证卷依发行条件订定的转换比列，转换成普通股，使得普通股的股数增加，一旦普通股的股数增多，相同的盈余除以更多的股数，每股盈余就会下降。
对于经常发行大量转换债的公司，投资人必须注意是否带来严重的股本广增，或到期是否有能力偿还债信。

硬如钢铁（七）

另一篇看好钢铁价格的报道（来自The Star，只取部分）。

Wednesday April 9, 2008
Long steel expected to stay firm in near term
PETALING JAYA: The super cycle in Malaysia's long steel sector is expected to last another two years, thus positioning the sector in the most favourable environment.

OSK Investment Bank in its latest report is maintaining an “overweight” on the sector.

“The steel stocks are trading at attractive single-digit price earnings ratio on their financial year 2008 numbers despite current positive developments,” it said.

The potential removal of present ceiling prices for steel bars and billets should enhance the transparency issues that had been plaguing the industry and could lead to a potential market re-rating, it added.

“The liberalisation of imports will not dilute local steel millers' market share in Malaysia, while the free export will bode well for local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage in billets,” it said.

While the prospect of a free market (cancellation of present ceiling prices) seemed to contradict the earlier proposed Automatic Price Mechanism for billets and steel bars, OSK said the move would help enhance earnings visibility of steel millers as both allowed timely cost pass through.

In 2007, there were three price increases for billets and steel bars. The 12% hike in December saw the ceiling price for standard billets raised to RM1,907 per tonne and bars to RM2,278 per tonne.

Currently, the regional steel prices were trading about RM800 per tonne higher than the local steel ceiling prices.

On the regional front, there was a mismatch between higher capacity installed for downstream facilities at 31.7 million tonnes against upstream steel making at 18.3 million tonnes per year. There was a dire need for about five million tonnes of billets within the Asean region, OSK said.

写于四月九日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（六）

个人觉得最近关于钢铁的好消息蛮多的，看来市场已开始看好钢铁股。以下报道取自星洲与The Edge，只取部分内容。

傳鋼條洋灰頂價將調高‧鋼鐵業盈利料激漲
2008-04-08
（吉隆坡）市場傳聞聯邦政府計劃提高鋼條與洋灰頂價，以符合市場競爭。分析員唱好這項計劃，看好在區域供應吃緊下，鋼鐵業者未來盈利可激漲。

其中，僑豐投資研究認為所有鋼鐵股評級都誘人，加上新措施可能提高盈利可見度，2008財政年本益比也只有單位數下，因此建議“加碼”評級。

大馬研究也认同鋼鐵業供需動力不斷提高，加上第9大馬計劃如雙軌電動火车與檳城第2大橋計劃推行可能推高需求，因此推薦“跑贏大市”。

貿工部宣佈將會針對本地鋼鐵領域做研究，以逐步開放本地鋼跌業，其中包括逐步移除鋼條與鋼坯頂價，以提高鋼鐵價格透明度。而未來更不排除廢除頂價制，而改用自動報價機制（APM）。

雖然上述計劃尚未成形，同時也未決定執行时间，不過分析員認為這項措施貸給鋼鐵業者的影響是正面的。

進入“超級週期”
僑豐研究表示，目前全球鋼坯供應短缺，加上中國將鋼坯出口稅調高至25%，加深區域供應吃緊，並讓鋼鐵業者進入“超級週期”的盛況。

“移除頂價不僅可幫助鋼鐵提煉商透過及時轉移成本，提高盈利可見度，而開放外國鋼鐵業者進口也不會侵蝕本地鋼鐵市佔率，因此市場鋼坯供需已不平衡，而外國鋼鐵業者還面臨運輸費提高問題，這有利本地業者在價格上享有優勢。”

大馬研究也不擔心政府可能延長從沙巴進口至半島的鋼條與洋灰AP的短暫發放時間。同時中國提高出口稅將會限制出口量，本地業者反而可“趁虛而入”，進軍更多外國市場。

同時，由於出口鋼鐵產品價格則不受控制，而一旦提高鋼鐵頂價，料不會影響鋼鐵業者的金融情況。

08-04-2008: Steel overweight amid possible ceiling price abolishment THE Malaysian steel industry could be moving towards the automated pricing mechanism (APM), with the possible abolishment of the ceiling price for domestic steel bars and billets, said AmResearch.

In a research note yesterday, it maintained an overweight call on the steel sector amidst improving demand/supply dynamics, while the potential dismantling of the ceiling price towards the APM, due to the widening local-regional pricing gap, implied further upside for domestic steel prices.

Quoting local news reports, AmResearch said the federal government was prepared to consider lifting the ceiling prices for steel bars and cement.

“While no timeframe has been imposed, the federal government acknowledges the need for competitive pricing for both steel and cement,” said the research house.

The current price of domestic steel bars and billets are RM2,278/metric tonne (mt) and RM1,918/mt, respectively.

It said in view of rising input costs, the abolishment of the steel price ceiling could finally move the domestic industry pricing structure towards the APM, similar to the cement industry, adding that major Japanese, Chinese and Korean millers had agreed to between a 65% and 71% increase in iron ore prices beginning this month.

AmResearch also said that domestic steel demand was expected to get a kick from the commencement of large ticket Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) jobs, such as the national electrified double-tracking project (Ipoh-Padang Besar), and the second Penang monorail.

The research house said it was not unduly concerned with the government’s move to extend the temporary issuance of approved permits (AP) for the importation of steel bars and cement for Sabah to contractors in Peninsular Malaysia.

Apart from rising international steel prices and escalating freight costs, it believed domestic millers had already proven their competitiveness, as reflected by the increasing penetration into export markets.

Meanwhile, an industry observer told The Edge that without a ceiling, steel prices could be at least RM600 higher than the current price.

He said the need of a ceiling price review was urgent, in order for the grey market for steel not to proliferate, adding that 9MP projects, which have been delayed due to changes in state governments, could be boosted by an abolishment of the ceiling.

“There is a stronger likelihood now the ceiling will be abolished. At least the government is willing to consider it now, when they weren’t before,” he said.

写于四月八日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（五）

来自The Edge的报道。只要自動定價機制一被推行，本地钢铁的价钱肯定会调高，问题是刚在大选大输的国政还敢让它起价吗？不起的话，钢铁业者肯定会减产，到时本地钢铁市场可能会出现短缺的现象。

04-04-2008: Govt mulls liberalisation of steel and cement sectors
The government is studying the feasibilty of gradually liberalising the local steel and cement industries, a move which could allow builders and property developers in Peninsular Malaysia to import long steel products.

International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the authorities' decision to review its policies on steel and cement was aimed at boosting competitiveness in both sectors, following the government's move to allow imports both materials into Sabah and Sarawak in February.

"We need to progressively liberalise the steel and cement industries. There will be certain controls in terms of exports and pricing.

"We might have to look again (at the possibility of allowing the import of steel into Peninsular Malaysia)," Muhyiddin told reporters.

Sarawak’s The Eastern Times reported in February that the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry had allowed the import of steel and cement in Sabah and Sarawak amid a shortage of the construction materials in the local market.

The materials, according to the news report, could be sourced from countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.

In a joint statement on March 8 last year, the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association and Master Builders Association Malaysia had attributed the shortage of steel products in the country to local steel millers preferring to export their products to capitalise on higher prices overseas.

Both associations contended that many contractors had to buy steel bars from the grey market to keep up with construction schedules, at prices higher than the controlled rates set by the government.

"It won't have a major impact on local steel players," OSK Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ng Sem Guan told The Edge.

According to Ng, should foreign steel products be allowed entry into Peninsular Malaysia, local millers' access capacity would still allow them to capitalise on the shortage of the material in the Asean region due to China's move to curb exports of the building material.

写于四月五日二零零八年

水电交加（八）

YTLPOWR提议的新凭单终于在4月28日尘埃落定。YTLPOWR的股东将可以以每三股普通股而行使一股价值RM0.10的凭单，除权日在5月13日。YTLPOWR将会发出最多约2.2b股的凭单，此凭单的转换价为RM1.25。

此消息一出，YTLPOWR的股价马上应声而起。让我们来作一些算数。YTLPOWR在5月10日的闭市价为RM2.64。让我们假设此股价可以维持到除权日，以每股RM0.10的凭单，加上RM1.25的转换价，那每股凭单将值最少RM1.29。过了除权日，YTLPOWR的母股价钱将会每股调整RM0.32。这就是所谓的warrant deep in the money。

看了好处，再来看此凭单对YTLPOWR的影响。根据我的资料，YTLPOWR到截至2QFY08止，拥有约RM7.7b的现金或约当现金。这2.2b的凭单将使YTLPOWR的现金持有增加到约RM8.8b，问题来了，如此大的现金，但到目前为止没看到YTLPOWR宣布任何的计划或项目，这么庞大的现金拿来干吗？回购自己的股票？(如果是的话，请投资者马上卖出持股。）

YTLPOWR目前流动在市场的股票据数为大约5.39b，YTLPOWR-WA的流动股票为860.6m，让我们假设YTLPOWR FY08的净盈利可以达到跟去年同样的RM1b，YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余（fully diluted EPS）大约为16.7sen。如果再加上这2.2b股的新凭单，那YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余将会是12.3sen，被稀释掉了约26%。

所以，如果你已经持有YTLPOWR的股票一段时间，恭喜你，YTLPOWR给了你一个大红包，但之后如果YTLPOWR没有好好利用此资金，你应该知道要怎么做。如果你只是想在5月13日之前赚取快钱，那就免了吧！除权日之后，YTLPOWR的股价将会调整与回跌，除非另有好消息出现。

硬如钢铁（四）

另一篇对大马钢铁业乐观的新闻，来自星洲日报，在此作个记录。延迟推行自动動定价机制只会让本地与国际的钢铁价格差距越来越大，到时将会导致本地钢铁短缺。

政局變動無損東盟需求‧鋼鐵前景超級樂觀
2008-03-14
全國大選變化可能導致某些工程延遲及檢討，國內鋼鐵產品需求放緩並延遲推行自動定價機制（APM）。不過，這對整體鋼鐵業盈利預測沒有顥顯著影響，因東盟市場鋼坯持續短缺，激勵推高鋼鐵產品出口與價格，使本地長型鋼鐵領域仍處於“超級循環”格局。

東盟市場對鋼鐵產品需求殷切，推高本地鋼鐵商的出口與賺幅，料使鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格節節揚升。這使僑豐研究綜合長型鋼鐵生產商的評級保持在“超級樂觀”評級。

聯昌研究指出，儘管大型工程展延可能對本地鋼鐵需求帶來衝擊，但新加坡、越南等海外鋼鐵需求持續攀高，加上中國政府減低鋼鐵出口措施，剔除價格優勢和傾銷活動，為其他業者提供填補缺口的機會，業者料可通過外銷抵禦相關衝擊。

雖然國內鋼胚和鋼鐵頂價在去年揚升近40%，但本地鋼鐵價仍較出口價低。目前，新加坡建築鋼鐵和鋼胚出口價為每公噸790美元和740美元，較國內市場頂價高出11%至20%。

不過，與洋灰業相同，鋼鐵業可能還需一段長時間方能看到自動報價機制落實，但國際鋼鐵價格高企，將為鋼鐵業創造更強的討價還價能力，這是洋灰業無法望之項背的。

僑豐表示，為反映市場疲弱情緒，將國內鋼鐵領域的2008年財政年預測本益比目標從之前的12倍削減至10倍，不過還是看好對擁有綜合長型鋼鐵生產設施鋼鐵商。

出口強勁
鋼鐵領域保持盈利預測，主要是出口強勁的推動，使下游鋼鐵產品年度成長2%至3%的保守預測將可輕易達致。同時，潛在延遲推行自動定價機制也將不會顯著影響鋼鐵商的盈利表現。

分析員指出，鋼鐵產品─鋼坯及鋼條在2007年3度起價，包括4月份起20%、6月份每公噸150令吉附加費及12月份再起12%。

中國為主要動力
中國效應因素為鋼鐵領域蓬勃亮麗的主要動力；中國於2008年1月1日即調高某些鋼鐵產品的出口稅捐，主要是應對在鋼鐵市場大傾銷的指責，及削減能源消耗及避免更嚴重的排污課題。

除此之外，中國對鋼坯實施25%的出口稅捐（之前僅為10%），將會導致東盟鋼鐵產品市場出現持續短缺局面，因為之前中國出口占東盟市場的75%需求量。而新加坡、越南、印尼、菲律賓及泰國等，皆為鋼鐵產品進口國。

大馬5家上市長型鋼鐵綜合生產商將需要填補市場的供應真空，本地鋼鐵商料將搭上“超級循環”的列車。

僑豐表示，隨著中國的缺場穩定全球市場需求，預料鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格將應聲而起，賺幅也會“水漲船高”。

廢鋼價格偏高及2008年鐵礦合約漲升65%，使鋼鐵商2008年財政年的平均銷售價格揚升15%至20%。

今年首季國際鋼鐵價格已漲10%
截至今年首季的國際鋼鐵價格已漲升5%至10%，使鋼鐵商擁有更好的定價能力，任何成本進一步揚升可轉嫁給消費者。
國際數家鋼鐵集團合併鞏固，包括米塔爾阿賽洛的世紀大合併，使國際鋼鐵業出現新的格局，也有助支撐更高的鋼鐵價格。

写于三月十四日二零零八年

硬如钢铁（三）

这是一篇对钢铁股有利的报道，来自星洲日报。国际铁矿石的价钱大起，受保护的大马钢铁业能置身事外吗？

鐵礦石價格大幅調高65%。鋼鐵股料水漲船高
20th Feb 2008
（吉隆坡19日訊）隨著數家主要亞洲鋼鐵廠一致同意，大幅調高鐵礦石價格65%，預料這將會令全球鋼鐵價格同步上揚，分析員因此大力唱好本地鋼鐵股。這些主要的亞洲鋼鐵製造商，包括浦項鋼鐵（POSCO）、新日本鋼鐵（NIPPON STEEL）及日本JFE鋼鐵，已經同意將2008年4月到09年3月份的鐵礦石結算價格，從原本的每噸72.11美元，提高到118.98美元，調升幅度達65%。

根據傳統，主要鋼鐵製造商與鐵礦石供應商之間的第一個大型合約，將會是全球價格的基準，因此，隨著上述三家鋼鐵公司同意新價格后，預料歐洲、北美及中國的主要供鐵公司，也將會同意類似的價格。

上漲成本或轉嫁消費者
分析員表示，雖然高額的鐵礦石成本，將會令鋼鐵製造商的生產成本高企，不過，由于目前全球市場對鋼鐵及鋼鐵製品的需求仍非常強勁，因此，鋼鐵製造商相信能夠將額外的成本，通過漲價的方式，轉嫁給最終消費者。在這種情況下，分析員認為，這些鋼鐵公司將能夠維持它們的賺幅。

鋼鐵業晉「超級週期」
現階段，研究分析員認為，鋼鐵製造領域的基本面仍維持強穩。他維持鋼鐵領域和鋼鐵股「超越大市」評級。

此外，分析員也看好以上的最新發展，他指出，鋼鐵石價格的調升幅度，基本上超越他們先前預測的30%。他認為，鋼鐵價格調升，無疑對本地綜合業者是好消息，隨著這項最新發展，他相信本地鋼鐵領域將進入「超級週期」。該分析員維持給予鋼鐵領域「增持」評級，不過，他暫時維持本地鋼鐵公司的盈利預測不變。

写于三月十三日二零零八年

吉屋出售（四）

产业市场的调查，看看无妨。就我个人而言，目前对产业股没什么兴趣。
Annual CEO property survey done by CH Williams, Talhar & Wong for 2008 and their views on the property market and drivers of it in 2008.

What will impact the industry in 2008?
In this survey, 93% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (73%) and robust stock market performance (73%).

What is to impact price movement in 2008?
In this survey, 76% of the CEOs surveyed felt that robust stock market performance had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by FIC guidelines (67%) and exemption of RPGT (67%).

What is to impact transaction volume in 2008?
In this survey, 96% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by robust stock market performance (83%) and flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (82%).

According to CH Williams, Talhar @ Wong, over the next six to twelve months, the larger and more popular retail centres are expected to perform well with increases in rental values and market prices as opposed to the older and more secondary centres. Also based on 4Q07’s Asia Retailer Sentiment Survey produced by Jones Lang Wootton, the momentum seen in 2007 will spill over to 2008. 92% of retailers also plan to expand in the next 12-months.

巴菲特谈投资（三）

每年五月的第一个星期六，很多来自全世界的朝圣者将会向Omaha出发，他们的目的只有一个，出席Berkshire Hathaway Inc的年度股东大会。会中，投资者问了巴菲特许多的问题，巴菲特也一一的回复，他提醒投资者不要对Berkshire Hathaway有太高的回酬期望，因为公司在接下来几年的回酬可能低于10%。同时，他也不看好美金汇率。他也提醒投资人不要去预测经济走势，反而应该注重于个股的营运获利。不多说了，看看以下的几份报道吧！

The Star
5/4/2008
Buffett will be the centre of attention today at the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway Inc, his roughly US$200bil holding company.

Berkshire estimates that 30,000 to 32,000 people, up from 27,000 last year, will fill the Qwest Center in Omaha for what has become known as “Woodstock for Capitalists.”

Shareholders will listen to Buffett and his effervescent sidekick, 84-year-old Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger, answer questions on business, the economy and life.

Berkshire had a good year in 2007.
It boosted profit 20% to US$13.2bil, and revenue the same amount to US$118.2bil, despite increased competition in insurance and several of its more than 70 businesses hurting from the housing slump. Shares of Berkshire, meanwhile, rose 29%.

Buffett is worth US$62bil, making him the world’s richest person, Forbes magazine said. Most of that amount is in Berkshire stock, and all of that stock will someday go to charity.

Berkshire sells such items as bricks, candy, car insurance, carpets, ice cream, jewellery, knives, paint and underwear. About half its business comes from insurance and reinsurance.

The company ended the year with US$44.3 billion of cash, but has since agreed to spend some.

In March, it paid US$4.5 billion for three-fifths of Marmon Holdings Inc, whose products are used in construction and energy. Then on April 28, it deployed US$6.5 billion tied to Mars Inc’s purchase of chewing gum maker Wm Wrigley Jr Co.

Berkshire’s US$75 billion stock cache has included blue-chip names such as American Express Co, CocaCola Co Procter & Gamble Co and Wells Fargo & Co.

Buffett may weigh in on how politicians, regulators and greedy investors mess up the markets.

Shareholders may want to know more about Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp, a bond insurer that Buffett created late last year as rivals struggled with subprime mortgages.

Berkshire’s bond insurer quickly won “triple A” credit ratings.
Succession will also be on people’s minds. Buffett has said Berkshire has three internal candidates to replace him as chief executive officer, and four “young to middle-aged” candidates to become chief investment officer.

And Buffett could offer his views on the 2008 elections.
He has said he plans to support the Democratic Party, but has not endorsed either of its leading candidates for the presidency, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.

Even so, Buffett gets some things wrong.
Last year, he said subprime mortgages did not pose a “huge danger” to the economy, and that absent surges in unemployment and interest rates, “it’s unlikely that that factor triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy.”

Official festivities begin Friday evening, after Berkshire releases first quarter results.

Cocktails, food and very long lines will await shareholders visiting Borsheim’s, a Berkshire owned jeweller west of downtown that will hawk memorabilia such as a Berkshire Monopoly game, towels, and license plate frames.

The festivities end at Buffett favourite Gorat’s, which last year served 915 dinners on “Shareholder Sunday.”
Shareholders, meanwhile, will host their own events throughout the weekend. – Reuters

Buffett to investors: Think small
Lower your expectations, advised Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at Berkshire's annual meeting Saturday. They also answered questions ranging from succession plans to the Cubs.
Last Updated: May 3, 2008: 4:24 PM EDT

OMAHA (CNNMoney.com) -- In the Q&A session Saturday morning at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger repeatedly warned investors to lower their expectations. When a shareholder asked whether Buffett's recent purchases of publicly traded stocks were likely to generate returns greater than 7% to 10% over time, Buffett promptly said no.

"We would be very happy if we earned 10%, pre-tax" on the additions to Berkshire's equity portfolio, said Buffett. "Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock; it isn't going to happen. We'll get decent results over time, but not indecent results." Added Munger: "You can take what Warren said to the bank. We are very happy at making money at a rate in the future that's much less than the past... and I suggest that you adopt the same attitude."

"We think Berkshire is an attractive investment [at today's price]," said Buffett. "We don't think it's the most attractive in the world."
Both men made it clear that their preference now is to acquire 100% ownership of private businesses at a "fair" price and to increase BRK's interest in companies that get substantial portions of their earnings in non-U.S. currencies.

"We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in euros in France or Italy or sterling in the UK, because I don't have a feeling that those currencies are likely to depreciate against the dollar," said Buffett. "Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies.... I feel no need to hedge purchases of companies that earn profits in other currencies." Buffett added that major U.S. multinationals, like Coca-Cola, are a natural hedge against the dollar, since they earn most of their profits offshore -- which, he said, "will be a net plus over time."

Asked what's in store for the economy, Buffett said he doesn't have a clue and doesn't care.
"I haven't the faintest idea," he said. "We never talk about it, it never comes up in our board meetings or other discussions. We're not in that business [of economic forecasting], we don't know how to be in that business. If we knew where the economy was going, we'd do nothing but play the S&P futures market."

His simple point: As an investor, you don't need to predict the economic cycle (or even pay much attention to it). Instead, you should focus on evaluating individual businesses if you pick your own stocks -- or, simply buy the entire market in the form of an index fund. When a shareholder asked for the single best specific investment idea Buffett could recommend to an individual in his 30s, Buffett said: "I would just have it all in a very low-cost index fund from a reputable firm, maybe Vanguard. Unless I bought during a strong bull market, I would feel confident that I would outperform...and I could just go back and get on with my work."

In response to a similar question from an investor asking how Berkshire would invest differently if it had only a few million dollars to put to work, Buffett advised him to think small. "That would open up thousands of opportunities," said Buffett. Earlier this year there were "very mispriced bonds" that "we could buy nowhere near enough of to make a difference to Berkshire," but a smaller investor could have exploited. "Most of the opportunities would probably be in small stocks or in specialized bond situations."

From India to China
Asked whether Berkshire will seek to purchase entire private companies based in China or India, Buffett responded: "We would like to. If we get lucky, we'll buy one or two in the next three or four years. I don't know if it will be in China, India, Germany, the U.K. or Japan -- there's a lot of luck in that in terms of families thinking of us specifically.... But you will see the day that BRK owns businesses in both countries [India and China]."

Despite its huge cash hoard, Berkshire won't be paying a dividend anytime soon. "The test," said Buffett, "is whether you can continue to create more than $1 for every $1 you're retaining." He and Munger feel they still can put surplus cash to work and earn a higher return with it than shareholders could on their own, after tax, if BRK paid it out. "If we can turn $1 in dividends into $1.10 or $1.20 on a present-value basis, they're better off if we don't pay out. When the day comes, it should be paid out. But because we still have this ability to redistribute money in a tax-efficient way within the company, we can reallocate it," he said, where it will earn a higher return than shareholders may be able to on their own."

全利双赢？（五）

QL Q2FY08年对年的营业额起了5%，净盈利起了34%。ROE维持在23%,　DE有点偏高在90%。

海产加工与棕油榨取的营业额年对年的起了8%与36%。家禽养殖则跌了4%。虽然营业额起了，但海产加工与棕油榨取的税前盈利却比去年同季跌了5%与18%，反而是家禽养殖起了99%。根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额起而税前盈利是因为较低的售价。虽然棕油的价钱起了，但因为棕油榨取率（FFB）的下跌与较高的成本而使税前盈利下滑。家禽养殖的上升是因为较高的售价与成本控制。

之前提过的隐忧：
一．净盈利率低维持在6%。
二．超高的债务，目前的D/E是在90%的水平。
三．海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖都是竞争非常大的行业。
四．深海捕鱼与棕油榨取是季节性的行业，会受到气候的影响。

写于十一月二十二日二零零七年

硬如钢铁（二）

ONASTEL Q4FY07的营业额年对年的起了6%，但季对季相对的跌了1%。净盈利在同时间却跌了3%与21%。根据公司的说法是因为原料起价的关系，尤其是废钢，以及铁矿现货价格的双级跳。虽然ONASTEL的管理层之前有提过2HFY07的业绩会来得比1HFY07差，但对这最后一季的15.0m净盈利还是有点失望的。

FY2007整年的营业额上扬了27%，但净盈利却只起了13%。全年的ROIC与ROE都起了1%分别来到了11%与12%。净现金为14 sen。净股息率 > 6%。值得注意的是净盈利率跌了1%，只剩下区区的6%。别忘了钢铁的价钱在2007年总共起了3次，看来钢铁原料的价格比钢铁的价格起得更快。

必须注意的风险：
一. 公司成长业绩不能持久，钢铁行业是属于循环性行业。
二. 政府的保护政策以及不允许钢铁起价以维持本国经济。
三. 营运与原料成本的调高，尤其是废钢丶煤丶铁矿石丶HRC将影响公司净利。
四. 钢铁行业需要非常大的资本开销。

写于二月十八日二零零八年

财报风云（一）

看财报，到底有什么用？
财务报表就像一家公司的成绩单。看懂之后，你可以知道公司的体质是否健康，并且据此作出投资决策。看懂财报可以帮助你了解企业经营的实况，降低投资风险。

没看懂财报就投资，比赌博还糟。你必须了解财务报表的重要性，也一定要看完财务报表，了解所有的财务优点与疑点后，才开始投资。

看懂财务报表可以让你投资时更安心。因为你可以及时了解公司亏盈，决定是否继续投资丶加码买进或卖出。

财务报表也是认识某行业很好的根据。拿几份不同公司的财报来比较，除了可以知道哪家公司赚钱，哪家赔钱之外，还可以看出一段期间之内，到底整个行业的表现如何？实在快速成长的路上，还是迈向衰退？了解行业展望，可以有效降低投资风险。

看不懂财报就去买股票，很可能会买到烂公司的股票，也就是地雷股。就算幸运躲过，也可能让你以过高的价格买进营运不好丶前景不佳的公司。

投资股票不看财务报表，就像去旅行不看地图，细读财务报表的投资人，可以从一些关键指标，看出一家公司的经营实况。

稍微懂得财务的人都知道，无论如何精准，财务报表都无法百分之百呈现公司的财务实况。但是，这不表示财报就不能相信。很多上市公司为了美化账面，会采取一些技巧，但这些技巧并非天衣无缝，偶尔还是有迹可循的。

在2007年，马股自爆发MEGAN与TRANMIL等股假财报弊案后，让投资人对财报的参考性产生怀疑。其实，投资者应该换个角度看；这些公司之所以被揭发，就是因为被查出不符合真实的情况，因此这起事件不仅不代表财报不能信任，而是告诉我们：要制造天衣无缝的假财报，其实难度是非常高的。

那上市公司财报哪里找？上网！就是取得上市公司财务报表最方便的管道。只要到大马证卷交易所成立的公开资讯观测站（http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com），就可以对所有上市公司的财务报表一目了然。

财报必须具备下列四大内容，包括：损益表丶资产负债表丶股东权益变动表，以及现金流量表。

水电交加（七）

YTLPOWR Q2FY08的营业额比起去年同季起了3%，季对季却跌了3%。相对于同时期的净盈利起了10%与4%。FY2008前半年的营业额是刚好达到FY2007年的一半，净盈利却只达到FY2007年的48%。ROE为17%，DE则维持在243%。目前公司手头上持有大约1.4%的财库股。同时，YTLPOWR提议了7.5%的股息将在3月6日除权。

YTLPOWR可说是间 很“稳”的公司，但成长已放缓。

写于三月十四日二零零八年

吉屋出售（三）

以下是来自星洲的报道（只取部分），老实说，我可没像这些分析员般的如此乐观，对于产业股，个人认为那些拥有高级住宅区发展计划的公司可以留意一下，但目前可能还不是买进的最佳时机。记着，千万别与股票分析员一起起舞。

國際大行齊唱‧產業股跑贏大市
2008-04-22
（吉隆坡）產業股成為近期投資焦點，尤其在國際知名金融機構看好背書下，周一股價紛紛跑贏大市。由於花旗集團於4月17日表示馬股目前已經“跌到谷底”，在超賣因素下，加上政府計劃推出新措施來提振產業消費情緒，因此推薦投資者買進優質產業股。

Avenue投資公司基金經理也表示，由於產業股已經低迷一段日子，因此目前有機會出現最大反彈。“我們已經瞄準這些產業股，因為它們很便宜。”

從3月8日政治海嘯後，產業股為馬股最大輸家，主要是市場擔心建築批准程序將會緩慢，而政治不明朗也可能會抑制海外投資需求。

目前，綜指產業股本益比為2.4倍，而亞太區的119隻產業股本益比平均為18倍。

就事论事（一）

以下是取自星洲的报道，上市公司董事的平均年薪只是3.3万。个人觉得此报道忽略了几点，其一，很多的董事不止出任于一家公司，而是很多家。其二，有些董事根本就只是白拿薪水，没事干，更不用说对企业的监管。其三，董事有很多的“额外”收入，年薪只是其中的一部分。其四，高薪酬未必等于高董事质素。当然这只是纯个人看法。

上市公司董事年薪3.3萬　3年增長30%‧仍輸大學新鮮人
2008-04-22
（吉隆坡）大馬上市公司的董事“不好當”，平均年薪只有3萬3000令吉，可能還比不上一位大學新鮮人。

這不是笑話，而是普華古柏會計行向152家大馬主板公司（佔馬股23%），且其中100家為頂尖上市公司，所作的一項調查結果。

據普華古柏主催的上市公司《2007年董事薪酬和實行》調查顯示，任重道遠的大馬上市公司董事薪酬在過去3年雖增長30%，惟常年薪酬只有3萬3000令吉，竟與甫進入社會工作的大學生不相上下。

調查顯示，董事薪酬中間值為每年3萬3000令吉，比較2004年的2萬5000令吉，每年取得10%的良好成長。

不過，該行的大馬高級董事經理沙曼丹卻直言：“董事薪酬在低基礎上增長，不足以回報優質董事，尤其是董事的責任和對企業監管的重擔加重。”

一些董事最高薪酬10萬
他表示，一些董事最高的薪酬達8萬令吉，接近10萬令吉水平。可是中間值卻更能反映上市公司的現況。

調查顯示，主席的薪酬較董事高出一倍，每年可獲約6萬令吉的薪酬。一半的董事認為，上市企業需要提高薪酬水平。

話雖如此，董事薪酬持續增長，顯示上市公司普遍願意付出高薪，以確保獲得高素質董事服務。
執行董事享有服務費的比例，從2004年的33%顯著增至67%，薪酬更增加一倍至3萬令吉。為執行董事提供認股權證計劃的公司比例，從2004年的10%增至39%。

若比較董事委員會薪酬，稽查委員會成員的薪酬，較薪酬及提名委員會高出一倍。
要求董事具備專業資格

另一方面，上市公司對董事的專業要求提升，30%受訪者表示有意聘請專業資格的董事，認為此舉將提升董事部的效率。

專業資格中，律師為最吃香的董事人選，接著則為投資銀行家、會計和工程師等。

沙曼丹也表示，受訪公司普遍達致《馬來西亞企業管理準則》的基本要求，如獨立非執行董事人數、主席和首席執行員責任分拆等。

“不過，董事部的評估的有效性有待提升。”儘管上市公司都有定期評估董事表現，但進一步的跟進顯示，只有70%的受調查公司有正式的評估程序，而其中不足一半的公司，真正設立架構性的改善計劃。

按照增長趨勢，每年10萬令吉的薪酬指日可待，沙曼丹認為論功行賞，董事素質也需要提升。
良好的表現，不只是達致企業管理準則要求，獨立和正義，以及使用對的工具達致目標，情緒智商等。

調查背景
向152家或23%的馬股主板上市公司展開調查，其中100家為頂尖上市公司。
受訪者包括市值最大的30家公司（截至去年7月為準），以及48家曾參與2004年調查的公司（14家為頂尖百大）。50%受訪者年度營業額超過5億令吉，44%公司市值超過10億令吉，以及13%僱員人數超越1萬人。

代客吸尘（二）

VS Q4FY2007的营业额与净盈利年对年的比去年同季分别起了54%与181%。FY2007全年的营业额与净盈利也分别比去年起了58%与119%。

利好：
一. 业绩如预期般的与Dyson一起成长。
二. FY2007的ROE为24%，ROIC为15%。
三. 目前拥有1.648m的库存股。

风险：
一. 公司业绩成长可能不能持久。
二. 业绩只依靠唯一的大客户，Dyson。
三. 公司跟大股东合作进军印尼种植业，有利益冲突的可能性。
四. 公司进军不是本身专长的煤矿业与种植业。
五. 股票流动量低。

写于十月三日二零零七年

全利双赢？（四）

QL Q１FY08年对年与季对季的营业额是17%与18%，净盈利是15%与-9%。ROE保持在22%,　DE有点偏高在80%。

必须注意几点的是在每个项目（海产加工与家禽养殖）的营业额与税前盈利比去年同季都起的时候，棕油榨取的税前盈利跌了30%，根据管理层的解析是因为棕油榨取率（FFB）跌了28%。

1QFY08的净盈利成长为15%，必须注意第二与第三季的业绩，因为QL的业绩在这两季通常会比较强。

写于八月二十一日二零零七年

名人名言（三）

本杰明葛拉汉（Benjamin Graham）：
＂The best definition of a good business is that the good business generates more cash than it consumes＂。

“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run it is a weighing machine.”

“If all security analysts were agreed that one particular stock was better than all the rest, that stock would quickly advance to a price which would offset all of its previous advantages”. Graham is summarizing the “efficient markets hypothesis”, or EMH, an academic theory claiming that the price of each stock incorporates all publicly available information about the company. With millions of investors sourcing the market every day, it is unlikely that severe mispricings can persist for long.
An old joke has two finance professors walking along the sidewalk; when one spots a $20 bill and bends over to pick it up, the other grabs his arm and says, “Don’t bother. If it was really a $20 bill, someone would have taken it already.” While the market is not perfectly efficient, it is pretty close most of the time – so the intelligent investor will stoop to pick up the stock market’s $20 bills only after researching them thoroughly and minimizing the costs of trading and taxes.

水电交加（六）

看到以下的报道，YTLPOWR没在名单内。虽然这则新闻还没得到Temasek方面的确定，但看来YTLPOWR的机会应该不高。反而是，TANJONG还保留在名单内。

S’pore’s Temasek lists 6 firms for power plant sale-sources
06 Jan 2008 22:11
SINGAPORE, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Singapore's state investor Temasek Holdings [TEM.UL] has shortlisted six companies as potential bidders for the sale of power firm Tuas Power, banking sources told Reuters on Monday.

The sale of Tuas is expected to fetch $2 billion, analysts said, and will be the first of three power-generating companies that the city-state hopes to sell by June 2009.
"There are six bidders for the deal," said a source with direct knowledge of the deal.
He said that the companies are Japan's Marubeni; Li Ka-shing's Hongkong Electric; India's Reliance Energy; a joint venture between Macquarie and India's GMR Infrastructure; Malaysia's Tanjong Plc; and Huaneng Power. Temasek declined to comment.

伐木求板

最近有看到一些消息說木材與三夾板的价钱已經回扬，可以开始买入木材股。以下是关于日本木材价格从2006年到2008年3月的波动。根据图表与最新的木材价格走势，个人的看法是木材與三夾板的价格可能已经触低，但是否能走高或横摆，还是必须注意未来几个月的发展。

硬如钢铁（一）

成立于1991的ONASTEL是一间台资工厂。于2005年7月耗资9千万令吉购置新冷轧机，并在2007 1月杪成功产出第一颗冷轧钢卷（CRC），全程耗时18个月。母公司为China Steel Corporation（CSC）。制造CRC，最重要的其中一个原料为hot rolled coil（HRC）。除了CRC以外，ONASTEL还出产galvanised iron（GI）与pre-painted galvanized iron（PPGI）。CRC的年产量高达62万，占大马大约66%的CRC市场。GI的年产量为24万，ONASTEL出产的CRC有约三分之一是用来制造本身的GI与PPGI。

在马来西亚除了ONASTEL，目前只有Megasteel Sdn Bhd（Lion Group），Yung Kong与Mycron Steel有生产CRC。根据FY2007前三季的报告，有约55%的营业额是来自CRC，其余的来自GI。盈利方面，有42%是来自CRC的贡献，GI为22%。只有大约20%的营业是出口的。

在马来西亚，有多类的钢铁价钱是被政府控制的。以下表格中，绿色部分为政府控制产品。尤有甚者，政府规定本地铁厂40%的HRC必须在本地购买，而HRC的生产商在本地只有一家，那就是Megasteel。而本地的HRC价钱是比进口HRC来得贵的，换句话说，政府强制CRC厂商买贵货。

还有一点必须提的是ONASTEL在2007年11月27日宣布买入了6%位于越南的CSGT Metals Vietnam Joint Stock Company，价值72万美金。目前还不知道此收购对ONASTEL未来盈利的影响。

写于一月二十八日二零零八年

吉屋出售（二）

以下是在The Edge看到的一篇关于房屋产业的文章（只取部分）：

Opposing price trends for 2008
The Klang Velley’s residential property market will bring about two opposite price trends in 2008, according to research by Regroup Associates. “There will not be many changes in the last quarter of this year (2007) but prices of high-end luxury and super condominiums, are expected to continue in an upward trend, while medium and lower-end properties will see a downward trend,” says Allan Soo, managing director of Regroup Associates.

“High-rise properties especially those in the Kuala Lumpur city centre (KLCC) area, are expected to breach the average selling prices of RM2,000 psf next year (2008) and the market can expect a continuous flow of foreign investors, especially from the Middle East,”he says. Apart from the KLCC, he feels that other hot areas are Mont’Kiara, Bangsar, Damanasara and KL Sentral.
“Currently, the Malaysian buying pattern is in the range of RM1,000 to RM1,500 psf.”

个人对以上的内容是蛮认同的，如果目前要投资产业股，投资人必须注意该公司的房屋发展计划是高级住宅区还是中低档住宅区。

写于十二月二十四日二零零七年

全利双赢？（三）

QL Q4FY07的年对年与季对季的营业额是11.4%与-12.7%，净盈利是58.3%与-14.8%。FY2007全年，营业额与净盈利起了10.7%与31.7%。净盈利率稍微提高到百分之6以上。ROE保持在22.8%, DE有点偏高在90%。

必须注意几点的是在每个项目（海产加工与家禽养殖）的营业额与税前盈利比去年同季都起的时候，棕油榨取的税前盈利跌了15%，根据管理层的解析是因为棕油榨取率（FFB）跌了15%。

还有，比起上一季的营业额与税前盈利，海产加工跌了11%与46%，这是因为东海岸与Kota Kinabalu沿海一带受到气候风的影响。棕油榨取的税前盈利比起上一季跌了57%，因为FFB跌了15%所影响。家禽养殖的营业额比起上一季也跌了12%，那是因为经销动物饲料的量减少所引致。

QL的强项：
一．这已是连续七年ROE高过20%。
二．FY2007的净盈利成长是31.7%。
三．管理层在今年1月，3月与4月都有买入公司的股票。

必须注意的隐忧：
一．超低的净盈利率。
二．超高的债务，D/E维持在90%。
三．海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖都是竞争非常大的行业。
四．深海捕鱼与棕油榨取是季节性的行业，会受到气候的影响。

写于五月二十二日二零零七年

水电交加（五）

YTLPOWR FY07最后一季的营业额比起去年同季起了14%。净盈利大起了98%，但其中包含了RM174.8m的税务回扣，扣除这一次过盈利的话，年对年的净盈利还是起了31%。FY2007全年营业额只比去年起了8%，净盈利则起了15%，但如加入了FY2007年里的所有一次过盈利的话，净盈利成长则为45%

到目前为止YTLPOWR已派发了15%的股息，还有提议的10%股息使FY2007的全年股息为25%，比去年高了5%。公司积极购买回本身的股票，目前手头上有大约210.397m的财库股。

投资的风险：
一．目前DE是2.3，还是超高。
二．不断的发出ESOS与凭单转换。
三．公司业绩没有什么成长。

写于十月三日二零零七年

联合一家亲（四）

UMLAND 3QFY07的营业额为RM103.608m，比上一季跌了23%，与去年同季相比也跌了9%。营业额的回弱是因为UMLAND在2007年1月到10月间只发放了RM59m价值的房屋计划。同时间的净盈利比上一季也跌了64%，这也是因为上一季Q2的高成长有一大部分是来自卖土地的盈利。除此之外，根据报告，截至9月的营业额，有88%是来自房屋销售，12%是来自土地售卖。看来Suasana Sentral Loft的未收款应该是收到七七八八了，即将开跑的应该是在明年一月的Bangsar与接下来的Mayang项目。

UMLAND的风险：
一. 超低股票流动量，买价与卖价相差太大。
二. 偏高的债务。
三. 拥有庞大的土地导致低ROE，再加上偏高的债务，导致ROIC也偏低。
四. 比起其它产业股，净盈利率是属于偏低的。

根据目前UMLAND的住宅区项目来看，在旧项目已销售的七七八八而新的工程还没有开始，估计4QFY07的业绩应该不会太好。

写于十二月七日二零零七年

喝一杯浓浓的咖啡？（六）

终于在九月将UCHITEC卖出了。持股三年多，总回酬为212.8%，年复利率为40.8%。卖出的最大理由是因为公司成长已经开始有缓慢下来的迹象，其实在八月时已有卖出的打算，再加上设定的目标早已达到，所以卖出。

写于十一月十三日二零零七年

名人名言（二）

彼得。林奇（Peter Lynch）：
“如果一个投资人不能在三十秒内说出他们的投资对象是从事怎样的业务，那么他们的投资很难成功。”

“Do not become so attached to a winner that complatency sets in and you stop monitoring the story.（不要因为太熟悉手上所持的赚钱股票，而疏于防范，没有密切跟进股项后面的故事。）”

“Buy what you know”, “You can outperform the experts if you use your edge by investing in companies or industries you already understand”, ”No one should ever invest in a company, no matter how great its products or how crowded its parking lot, without studying its financial statements & estimating its business value”

“Those who hurry to sell and book profits when companies perform well but who tenaciously hang on to businesses that disappoint are like cutting the flowers and watering the weeds.”

我进场了

回顾二零零七年，我只进场购买股票三次，其中有两次是在股市大跌的时候，即二月二十八日与八月。在二月二十七日当天，中国股市下跌超过5%，造成了马股当天一度跌超过50点。第二天，也就是二十八日股市一开市就跌了超过100点，我就是在当天早上进场的。但因为股市恢复得太快，我的买进也就只有那一次。

接下来，当然是八月份的美国次贷危机，我在八月一日又开始买进，老实说，买入得有点太早，幸好我每次买股都会分层次买进，所以在那个月我不断的买进，直到用光所有的现金，根据纪录，我最后一次买进是在八月十七日。

在一月二十二日星期二那天，我又进场了。有朋友问，你不怕股市继续下跌吗？我怕，但问题是我不懂股市几时会是低点，所以我只能根据我所能理解的，买进自己认为价钱被低估的股票，而当市场大量下跌时，要找到被低估的股票相对的就容易得多了。其实，上个月我出席了一个在怡保的网聚，跟一位网友也谈过同样的课题，当时该网友问了我一个问题：“如果股市一直往南跌，好像1998年时的情景，那你越买不就会亏得越多吗？”尤于时间的关系，当时没回复到此问题，在此顺道回复他，我是这样想的。

在股市大跌时，你有看到郑鸿彪卖出大众银行的股票吗？你有看到郭鹤年卖出他的PPB股份吗？你有看到任何的大股东大量的卖出他们的股票，然后等股市回杨时在买回来？为什么？

再来看，假设说你拥有一间咖啡店，生意很好，已经连续几年盈利成长超过20%。根据市场的预估，该间店的市价大约为50万，但因为最近美国市道不好，市场的预估价格被调低到30万，该店的盈利持续保持成长20%，你会将它卖了吗？或者，该咖啡店是别人拥有的，他因为看到市场将该店的价格调低而急着脱售，你会向他买吗？当然，如果你同意向他买入该店的话，很可能明天该店的价钱会更加低，你承受得了吗？

最后，你看上了一台在电器店的电视机，因为价钱不便宜，所以一直没买，但有一天，你看报纸发现该电视机有折扣30%，你会即刻去买吗？但可能明天会有别家店折扣50%,也可能明天这折扣价就没有了，你是买还是不买呢？

那，股市会不会跌到好像1998年那样？我个人的看法是不会。今年，就算大马经济再差，也还是会增长5%到6%，马币对美元应该还有上涨的空间，出口尤其是到美国可能会受影响，但我相信大马的内需还是稳健的，物价的上涨将是无可避免的，这对消费者可能是坏消息，但对一些公司来说，却是好消息。投资人要做的是如何找出这种公司，然后在适当的价钱里买入该公司的股票。

当然，以上只是想表达用另一种思考方式来进行股票投资。购买股票，股价并不是唯一的考量，最重要的还是公司的基本面与未来的盈利成长。但是，在日常生活中，有很多朋友时常对我说：“哇，这支股票十多块钱，太贵了！那里能买？”
我常想，什么是贵？什么是便宜？是不是只要是几角钱的股票就是便宜，只要是十多块钱的股票就是贵呢？

全利双赢？（二）

喜欢它的理由：
一．连续六年的高ROE。
二．预测FY2007的净盈利成长最少是去年的20%或以上。
三．对管理层的信心，管理层不断的买入公司的股票。

必须注意的隐忧：
一．超低的净盈利率，低过6%。
二．超高的债务，目前的D/E是90%。
三．海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖都是竞争非常大的行业。
四．深海捕鱼与棕油榨取是季节性的行业，会受到气候的影响。

写于四月三十日二零零七年

水电交加（四）

YTLPOWR Q3FY07的营业额与净盈利年对年只起了区区的8%与0%。这季的净盈利如果加上了股票投资盈利的88.9m的话，相对去年同季其实是起了41%，因为投资盈利是一次过的收入，通常我都不会将它计算在本业的盈利里。 同时，YTLPOWR第一次宣布了3.75sen的第二次中期股息，这算是一个小小的惊喜。

来重看当初看好的理由：
一．很“稳”的公司与拥有稳定的收入，拥有国内外的政府合约。
二．高净盈利率，维持在20%以上。
三．拥有大量的现金。
四．高股息率。
五．公司积极购买回本身的股票。

投资的风险：
一．高债务，目前DE是2.5。
二．ESOS与不断的转换凭单。
三．公司业绩没有什么成长，这一季的净盈利如扣除掉一次过投资盈利的话，比起去年的同季是完全没有成长。

写于十月三日二零零七年