水电交加（十二）

关于YTLPOWR凭单的报道，凭单持有者必须注意的是对高股息股如YTLPOWR，持有它的凭单是比较吃亏的，因为凭单持有者没有股息。如果想要长期持有，还是转换成母股比较划算。

The Edge
Saturday July 12, 2008
YTL Power warrants fare weakly
THE performance of YTL Power International 2008/2018 warrant (YTLPowr-WB) since it made its debut on Bursa Malaysia in the middle of last month has not been encouraging due to the weak stock market and also on fears that the government’s imposition of a windfall tax will reduce the earnings of independent power producers (IPP) like YTL Power.

After reaching a high of 80.5 sen on the first day of trading, the warrant has been declining steadily. At the close of last Wednesday trading, YTLPowr-WB was trading at 51.5 sen while its mother share closed at RM1.77.

The company’s other warrant (YTLPowr-WA) closed at 55.5 sen.
YTL Power is Malaysia’s oldest independent power producer. It is also the concession holder of Wessex Water in Britain.

YTL Power also owns power assets in Indonesia and Australia among others. In the first nine months of financial year 2008 ended March 31, 2008,
YTL Power recorded a marginal 1.3% increase in net profit to RM758.2mil from RM748.5mil the same period last financial year.

Revenue grew 6.9% to RM3.1bil from RM2.9bil the corresponding period a year ago.

YTL Power actually suffered a decline in net profit in the third quarter to RM277.6mil from RM305.7mil a year ago.

This was due to the absence of any gain on disposal of investment. In the previous financial year, YTL Power recorded a gain of disposal of quoted investment of some RM88.9mil.

If the gain on investment was excluded, YTL Power’s profit actually 28% higher for the third quarter compared with last financial year.
As at the end of March 2008, the net asset per share of YTL Power was RM1.15.

The Government has gazetted the “Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008” on Malaysian IPPs which came into effect on July 1. Under this order, the Government decided to charge IPPs a 30% windfall tax where the return on assets exceeds 9%.
This development has dampened the share price of IPPs like YTL Power in the last few weeks.

YTLPowr-WB was born out of YTL Power’s offer of up to 2.2 billion new warrants for sale to its shareholders at 10 sen per warrant on a renounceable basis based on one new warrant for every three existing ordinary shares held.
A total of 1.78 billion YTLPowr-WB was issued.

YTLPowr-WB is now trading at a slight discount.
This is not uncommon for warrants of YTL Power as its other warrant, YTLPowr-WA, had often been traded at a discount in the past.
This is probably due to the fact that the company is a good dividend paymaster.

As warrantholders are not entitled to dividend, high dividend yield will have a negative impact on the value of the warrants.

As YTLPowr-WA and YTLPowr-WB are both trading at a discount with almost similar level of gearing and exercise price, investors are likely to select the warrant with higher discount which at the current prices belong to YTLPowr-WA.

Shareholders of YTL Power can opt to sell the mother share and simultaneously purchase the warrant for exercise to enjoy risk free arbitrage gain when the discount level is large enough to cover transaction and finance charges.

Shareholders should take advantage of the company’s share buyback exercise to lock in the risk free gain whenever possible.

写于七月十二日二零零八年

水电交加（十一）

YTLPOWR宣布进军中国水务业，还必须有更多的信息才能做出评估。

The Edge
19-06-2008: YTL ventures into China KUALA LUMPUR: YTL Corporation Bhd is venturing into China via a strategic tie-up with Asia Environment Holdings Ltd (AEH) to collaborate in the fast-growing and lucrative water industry.

In a statement, YTL said the two companies had entered into an agreement yesterday to draw on the group’s water expertise, branding and financial strength and AEH’s local knowledge and proven execution skills in China.

AEH, which is listed on the Main Board of the Singapore Stock Exchange, provides water and wastewater treatment solutions, manufactures, fabricates, sells and installs generic and customised equipment for water and wastewater treatment systems.

AEH has also undertaken build-operate-transfer (BOT) water projects in China and is expected to operate 11 BOT projects by the end of 2008.
YTL said the collaboration would create a formidable force in the Chinese water industry, which is expected to see investments of RMB1 trillion (RM470 billion) from 2006-2010, according to the Ministry of Construction in China.

YTL said in the framework agreement, its subsidiary Wessex Water Sdn Bhd would enter into an exclusive technical agreement with AEH to provide technical advisory and consultancy services to AEH on an exclusive basis in China.

It said Wessex Water would be able to draw upon the extensive experience of its UK affiliate in managing water supply and sewerage in parts of south-west and southern England.

YTL said AEH had agreed to give YTL a first right of refusal to collaborate in all future water-related projects, including equipment manufacture, design, EPC and BOTs in China.

It said it had been estimated that two-thirds of China’s water resources were polluted, a problem exacerbated by low water resources per capita and high water leakages amounting to 28%.

YTL said the Chinese government was putting a greater emphasis on improving water standards in China and had encouraged higher water tariffs as a means of attracting much needed investments in the Chinese water industry.

“This is the right time to be entering the China water market. We will be able to leverage our expertise and Asia Environment’s strong China presence in this mutually beneficial alliance,” said YTL chief executive officer Tan Sri Francis Yeoh.

写于七月七日二零零八年

彩马发电（二）

我曾经在2006年发表过对TANJONG的看法，当年我不看好它在Tropical Islands Resort的投资。如今，我还是持有相同的看法。虽然事隔两年，Tropical Islands Resort还是在亏损的状况中，唯一值得庆幸的是它的营运亏损已经从FY2006年占净盈利的-12.1%束减到FY2008年的-5.9%。

除了休闲业以外，TANJONG还拥有67%的股份在Menara Maxis，以及50%的股份在TGV Cinemas。这些产业对TANJONG的营业额与赚利的贡献并不显著，就不多谈了。

TANJONG的其中一个强劲的现金流是来自1991年收购的Pan Malaysia Pools Sdn Bhd，也就是目前大家比较收悉的大马彩。大马彩是马来西亚最小的博彩公司，占市场大约23.8%份额。虽然大马彩提供持续的现金流给TANJONG，但以马来西亚今日的博彩业来看，成长是非常的有限的。

所以，我这里要说的是TANJONG的独立发电厂业务。TANJONG在马来西亚拥有三间独立发电厂，分别是Telok Gong，Pahlawan以及Panglima，总电力为1,490MW。

在2005年，TANJONG收购了Taweelah Asia Power Co的10%股权，此公司目前拥有928MW的发电厂与92MIGD的海水淡化厂，预计到了2008年尾，当第二期完工了之后，将会有2,000MW的电力，海水淡化的容量也会增加至160MGID。

同年，TANJONG也收购了两间座落在埃及的独立发电厂，Suez Gulf与Port Said East，总电力为1,366MW。

当然，最振奋人心的是在2007年尾，TANJONG的子公司Pendekar Energy收购了55%股权的Globeleq Ltd。此公司拥有七间独立发电厂分别座落在埃及，孟加拉，巴基斯坦以及斯里兰卡，总电力为1,810MW。这也是为什么我再次重提TANJONG的最大原因。此收购也将TANJONG的总电力从之前的2,856MW提升到3,951MW。

看了TANJONG的业务，再来看TANJONG的业绩。根据TANJONG FY2008的年报，发电厂贡献了大约67.7%的总营业额与77.4%的营业盈利。这其中有39.5%的营业额是来自本地发电厂，24.3%来自埃及发电厂，以及4%来自Pendekar Energy。以营业盈利来分析的话，其中43.9%的盈利来自本地发电厂，28.8%贡献自埃及发电厂，刚被收购的Pendekar Energy虽然只纳入了两个月的业绩也提供了4.8%的盈利。

以下几点必须注意：
一．非核心业务如休闲业的持续亏损。
二．博彩业已经到了饱和的阶段，成长有限。
三．政府有意重谈PPA合约。
四．弱势美金汇率将影响赚利。

写于五月十二日二零零八年

那行出状元？

很久没发表了，因为最近电脑出了些状况，让我不见了六个月的资料，也就是说，从今年一月到六月的资料全被删除了。所以，近半个月都在用种种的方法来恢复重要的资料，只可惜功效不大，很多资料就此永远找不回了。这真的痛，但事实无法改变，最近已经开始了重新寻找及输入已遗失的资料，有些资料可能无法再找回，或已经忘记，但这也是无可奈何的。

说回股票，近来马股市大跌，不外乎几个原因。外围因素包括美国经济不景气，原油、原产品价钱高涨、全世界的高通膨降临等。国内，政府在六月大量的调高原油价，通膨创历年新高，利率可能在下半年调高，政治的动荡好像一场剧情复杂的连续剧等都在在的影响着大马的股市走向。

在熊市的来临，身为投资者的我们要如何投资、如何选股呢？

让我们来试试由上至下的方式（top-down approach）。首先，GLCs（政府相关公司）就免了吧，对一个没有远见，没有规划，贪污腐败的大股东，投资者当然是能免则免。通货膨胀的压力与利率将可能在下半年调高将逼使消费者紧束腰包，这将冲击银行的贷款与提高坏账、贷款利率的提高将影响产业与气车的销售。天然气的涨价与美元的弱势将侵蚀手套制造业。外需的减少将使电子工业减少订单。政府消减开销将影响建筑与相关行业。政府缺钱，很可能会再接下来的财政预算案再次的向罪恶股如香烟与酒类征收更高的税务。

随便写写都可以列出一大堆目前不适合投资的行业，倒不如想想还有什么行业值得关注。就我个人的看法，投资在受益于高原产品溢价的行业如钢铁、洋灰、棕油、原油等的时机已过，投资者如此刻冒冒然然进场买进这些行业的股票，可能会买在高处。目前，我只会投资在那些公司盈利比较确定、容易预测，或者是可以将成本转嫁给其客户的公司，以及那些就算是在高通膨消费者还是必须消费的行业。