Saturday, August 30, 2008

彩马发电(五)

最近有太多关于独立发电厂的负面消息,说得最多的当然是政府要向独立发电厂征收的暴利税。既然政府已经公布了暴利税是以独立发电厂的税息前盈利除以净资产(EBIT/net asset),而TANJONG也宣布了它可能每年必须支付高达RM70m的暴利税,就来预估一下TANJONG FY09的盈利吧。

以政府的ROA计算法作为依据,TANJONG在大马的三个独立发电厂Telok Gong, Pahlawan和Panglima的ROA为50%,19%与19%。这相等于RM85m的暴利税。

又,Panglima发电厂将在七月有为期40天的定期维修,这将需要大约最高RM80m的维修费。

假设TANJONG的博彩业,休闲业与其它业务的PBIT可维持与FY2008年同样的赚利,即RM229m,-RM59m与RM43m。至于独立发电厂,假设大马的EBIT也跟去年一样,维持在RM439m,扣除掉Panglima的维修费用RM80m,剩下RM359m。同样的,假设埃及的发电厂也维持同样的赚副,即RM288m。

Pendekar Energy在1QFY09里贡献了RM77m与RM12m(归纳为联营公司)的EBIT,假设此赚副可维持到第四季,那Pendekar Energy的EBIT将为RM308m加RM48m。

将以上EBIT全部加起来,TANJONG FY2009的EBIT可达到RM1.2b。扣除掉利息支付与税务,净盈利大约为RM669m。再扣掉RM85m必须支付的暴利税,还剩RM584m。必须一提的是此净盈利并没有加入RM62m来自卖掉英国广播公司的一次过盈利。拿此净利除于TANJONG流通在外403.256m的股票,每股盈余为RM1.45。以上星期五TANJONG的闭市价RM12.30来计算的话,本益比为8.5,净股息率为5.7%。

TANJONG FY2004至FY2008的本益比界于9到15之间。假设TANJONG的本益比可以来到12,其股价应可来到RM17.40。

当然,还有一些风险没计算在内,如:
*TANJONG的盈利不如预测,包括Tropical Islands Resort的亏损广大、独立发电厂的开销过大与盈利减少、派彩率偏高。
*PPA的合约从新谈判,赚利被逼调低。
*暴利税比预算来得还要高。

The Edge
09-07-08: Tanjong: Buffeted by windfall tax uncertainties Tanjong plc's (RM12.20) share price has taken a beating of late. This can be attributed, in part, to weaker sentiment for the broader market. Growing concerns for the global economy as well as domestic political sabre rattling have certainly worried the market.

But perhaps even more unsettling is the government's recently announced windfall tax on independent power producers. A tax of 30% is to be charged on any excess return of assets over the threshold of 9%.

Based on the formula, Tanjong will have to pay up to RM80-RM90 million a year in windfall tax, on top of existing corporate taxes. The government has yet to fix an implementation date for the payment.

Based on our forecast, the tax will shave about 6%-11% off our earnings estimates for FYJan09-FY10. Whilst the absolute quantum is still manageable, it raises many questions about the viability of future power projects in the country. At the very least, it would certainly hurt future investments in the sector.

The development has shaken investor confidence in power companies, previously thought to be relatively defensive investments. Local investors may sit on the sidelines and wait to see how the windfall tax will eventually unfold.

But foreign investors have far less qualms about reducing their exposure. Tanjong had relatively high foreign shareholding of about 42% at end-May. Its share price has fallen from a high of RM19.90 about this time last year to the current RM12.20.

Trading at 8.3 times P/E with 6.1% net yield Assuming a half-year windfall tax impact in the current financial year, Tanjong's net profit will be adjusted to about RM594 million, including one-off investment gains of RM62 million. That's still up from RM554.5 million in FY08. Earnings should increase further to some RM622 million in FY10 or 154.3 sen per share.

Thus, Tanjong is trading at fairly attractive valuations of roughly 8.3 and 7.9 times our estimated earnings for FY09-FY10. Plus, we expect the company will continue to pay relatively generous dividends. Tanjong shares will trade ex-entitlement for a first interim dividend of 17.5 sen per share on July 16.

We estimate net dividends to total RM1 per share for FY09. That would earn shareholders a higher-than-market average net yield of 6.1%.
Nonetheless, investors may well stay away from power companies, at least for the near term. It is likely that further discussions will take place between the government and affected power companies.

Diversification of earnings base Positively, Tanjong has diversified its earnings base over the past few years. Contributions from the company's power assets overseas are estimated to account for about half of total power earnings.

Meanwhile, the rest of its businesses are expected to deliver steady earnings, going forward.

The company's gaming business generates good cash flow annually. Rising inflationary pressures may see slower sales per draw growth as consumer spending softens.

However, the gaming industry as a whole is expected to remain fairly resilient. We expect sales per draw to grow by roughly 3%-4% annually.
The Tropical Islands resort in Germany fared well in 1QFY09. Losses narrowed to RM2.2 million - down from RM10.2 million in 1QFY08 - on the back of higher visitor numbers and average spending. Net losses should narrow in the current year compared to FY08.

In short, we continue to like Tanjong's valuations and fundamentals, but the stock may not recover strongly in the near term, at least until uncertainties over the windfall tax are resolved.

The Star
Friday July 18, 2008
Tanjong to fork out RM70mil a year for windfall tax
KUALA LUMPUR: Based on its current earnings, Tanjong plc expects to fork out about RM70mil per year on windfall tax which was imposed recently on independent power producers (IPPs).

Chairman Datuk Robert Cheim said the windfall tax imposed by the Government would certainly have an impact on the company and all IPPs in the country.

“The tax also has an impact on the bond market. We have appealed to the Government and are waiting for the outcome. We hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the group’s AGM yesterday.
Last month, the Government announced a 30% windfall tax on audited returns in excess of a benchmark 9% return on assets for IPPs effective July 1.

For the financial year ended Jan 31, Tanjong recorded a net profit of RM554.46mil on revenue of RM2.72bil.

On Tenaga Nasional Bhd’s call for power-purchase agreement renegotiations, Cheim said Tanjong was prepared to enter into negotiations after the windfall tax issue was resolved.

Meanwhile, he said the group would continuously evaluate opportunities for international expansion in the power-generation business via acquisition as a means to boost earnings.

“We are certainly buying more power assets. We want to grow more efficient and get economies of scale with our strategy,” he said, adding that the power sector would remain the group’s key contributor to revenue.

The group is currently looking at both greenfield and brownfield investment opportunities in the Middle East, Africa, India and South Asia.

Cheim said the acquisition of seven Globeleq Ltd power plants in Egypt, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka last November had immediate contribution to its revenue.

Tanjong wholly-owned subsidiary Powertek Bhd's power plant in Telok Gong, Malacca.

Tanjong currently has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.

On the progress of the group’s Tropical Islands project in Germany, Cheim said there were some improvements in operational efficiency and revenue-generation capacity.

“However, the longer-term prospects of Tropical Islands hinge on successfully attracting visitors from a wider target market and the availability of adequate accommodation for long distance travellers to enjoy the whole suite of offerings at Tropical Islands,” he said.

Tanjong was in advanced stages of negotiations with third parties willing to independently finance the development of accommodation facilities and market them internationally, he said.

“Barring any unforeseen circumstances, we hope to conclude these before the end of the year,” Cheim said.

The Edge
18-07-2008: Tanjong expects to incur RM70m per annum in windfall taxes KUALA LUMPUR: Tanjong plc may have to pay an estimated RM70 million per annum in windfall taxes but it remains confident that its power division will continue to be a key contributor to the group, said its chairman Datuk Robert Cheim.

He said the imposition of windfall tax had an impact on the company and all independent power producers (IPPs) in the country.

“It has an impact on the bond market as well. We have appealed to the government and hope it will make a decision soon,” he told reporters after the company’s AGM here yesterday.

The Windfall Profit Levy (Electricity) Order 2008, which came into effect on July 1, may also see a downgrade of bonds as the value of ringgit bonds and notes issued by IPPs is estimated at RM20 billion as of 2006.

A major cause of concern is an immediate adverse effect on the financial ability of the IPPs to meet loan obligations to their financiers and bondholders. The windfall tax will be 30% of earnings before interest and tax that are above the 9% threshold on return on assets.

In a statement, Cheim said the relevant appeals had been made by the Association of IPPs to the government. He said Tanjong was prepared to hold discussions with the government and Tenaga Nasional Bhd for the renegotiation of the power purchase agreement following the resolution of the issues relating to the windfall tax.

Cheim said Tanjong was on track with its strategy to be a major regional power company, with the strong contributions from its overseas power generation business segment. The group now has 13 power plants with a net capacity of 3,951 megawatts.
“Our overseas business has grown significantly with the successful acquisition of seven Globeleq power plants (in the year ended Jan 31, 2008). These power plants have immediately contributed to our revenue and will be key to the group’s future earnings as they continue to provide us with strong recurring cash flows,” he said.

写于七月十八日二零零八年

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