学习基本分析

从《Show me the Money》的发表里，我开始看到了原来除了技术分析外，还有人用另一种方式在股市投资，那就是基本分析。以下是当时坛主的其中一篇原文发表，五年了，我还保留着。

＂in 1991, YTL is 2.30, if u bot one lot & keep it until 2000, ur one lot will become 5.83 lot. how?
1992 5 for 1 bonus
1994 5 for 1 bonus
1995 2 for 1 bonus
1996 2 for 1 bonus
1997 2 for 1 bonus
1999 5 for 1 bonus

ytl price on 31-12-2000 is 4.94
ur earning = 5.83 x 4.94 x 1000 = 28,800.20
is around 12.5 times in ten years, can ur boss increase ur salary 12.5 times in 10 years?? think carefully hor!!
and this amount not including the dividend u receive every year

take a look on the top 15 volume in 1991, can u find ytl??
Name Price Volume
CASH 1.15 31397
S DARBY 3.86 30212
G HOPE 2.45 24392
MAYBANK 7.10 22184
TANJONG 6.95 19324
MMC 2.59 17879
D BHD 1.16 17017
GUTHRIE 2.55 16085
SRI HART 0.46 15351
MAS 7.00 14141
PROMET 0.84 13956
B GROUP 1.38 13256
S UEP 3.46 13203
RENONG 1.16 12257
IDRIS 0.74 12159

let say during that time u invest the same amount 2,300.00 in these top volume counters, what will happen??

Name Price Shares Total Price Shares Total
YTL 2.30 X 1000 = 2300 4.94 X 5830 = 28800
MAYBANK 7.10 X 324 = 2300 13.50 X 972 = 13122
TANJONG 6.95 X 330 = 2300 7.15 X 990 = 7078
S DARBY 3.86 X 596 = 2300 4.76 X 715 = 3403
G HOPE 2.45 X 939 = 2300 3.02 X 939 = 2836
S UEP 3.46 X 665 = 2300 3.86 X 665 = 2567
MMC 2.59 X 888 = 2300 1.74 X 1243 = 2163
RENONG 1.16 X 1983 = 2300 0.94 X 1983 = 1864
GUTHRIE 2.55 X 902 = 2300 1.80 X 902 = 1624
MAS 7.00 X 329 = 2300 3.84 X 329 = 1263
CASH 1.15 X 2000 = 2300 0.34 X 2000 = 680
IDRIS 0.74 X 3108 = 2300 0.17 X 3108 = 528
B GROUP 1.38 X 1667 = 2300 0.30 X 1667 = 500
D BHD 1.16 X 1983 = 2300 0.16 X 1983 = 317
SRI HART 0.46 X 5000 = 2300 0.42 X 5000 = susp
PROMET 0.84 X 2738 = 2300 0.29 X 2738 = susp

facts:-
1) in 10 years, only maybank, tanjong, mmc & sdarby issue bonus (hv factor in the calculation)
2) total investment=2300 for each counter to see the comparison
3) i put ytl in the list just for comparison, ytl is not top 15 volume counter

result:-
1) ytl is not the top volume counter in 1991, but give the highest return after 10 years
2) among the top 15 volumes counter, with the same amount u invest, only 5 can make some profit, the rest (10 counters), u LOSS
3) what happen to sri hart and promet now??

then, how we know ytl is a good counter to invest but not other counters in 1991?
here is the point lol!! those get the answer, make big money lol!!＂

这篇发表，在今天看起来可能没什么大不了，如果你有读冷眼的《３０年股票投资心得》一书的话，他在最后一章里的《一万如何变百万》中也有提到类似的例子。但是，在那时候，当我第一次看到时，是相当震撼的。

就这样，在看了这些发表之后，我开始了学习基本分析的生涯。巧合的是，在一个朋友的婚礼上，当大家在高谈阔论股票的时候，从某人的口中，第一次听到了巴菲特的传奇故事，和白沙这间公司。也是从那时开始，我开始买入一些关于巴菲特的书籍来阅读。

话说回来，虽然那时开始对基本分析有所认识，却因基本分析的知识还浅，所以并没买进任何股票。接下来，英文论坛因为服侍器的不胜负荷而突然停机了。在这一段没有论坛的日子，我重新整理了自己的财务。因为在学习股票基本分析的同时，除了股票书籍以外，我也参考了蛮多的理财书，所以自己的理财知识也一直地跟着增长。

在痛定思痛之后，我毅然的将自己那辆以十多万买来的车子卖了，换了一辆灵鹿。还有，将之前所持有的所有股票，不论亏赚的全部卖出。相信我，这绝对不是一个容易的决定。