ONASTEL在5月15日公布了 Q1FY08的业绩。营业额年对年与季对季的起了5%与15%，净盈利在同时间也起了6%与60%。GI与PPGI的营业额跌了11%，同时期的CRC的营业额却起了23%。CRC的销量增长以及更高的售价使这一季的业绩不错。有一点值得注意的是这季的赚率比上一季提高了，根据公司的解释，因为公司开始运用了每月定价，之前是每季定价。
ONASTEL也提议公司改名为CSC Steel Holdings Berhad，希望可借助CSC母公司在国际的信誉来提高自身的知名度。
目前的ONASTEL拥有稳健的财务报表，低负债，19.9sen的净现金、与5.8%的净股息。政府已经在5月9日宣布取消了钢铁顶价，以让钢铁价钱自由浮动，这将惠及ONASTEL，公司可以调高CRC的价钱，而且不需再向Megasteel购买较贵的HRC。
最后，投资者还是必须关注钢铁原料成本与原油价的持续高涨可能会侵蚀到ONASTEL的赚副。还有Lembaga Tabung Haji 5月正在出货，虽然不多，还是必须留意。
Saturday, May 31, 2008
硬如钢铁（十一）
另两则好消息，来自The Edge和The Star。
13-05-2008
Steel exporters to benefit from removal of restrictions KUALA LUMPUR: Steel-related stocks on Bursa Malaysia rose on the government’s move last week to free up all restrictions on the industry.
Last Friday, the government announced the lifting of ceiling prices of steel bars and billets. It also announced the lifting of restrictions on imports and exports of long steel products such as bars and rods.
Previously, there was a cap on ceiling prices of steel and the building material was not allowed to be exported while imports were restricted.
Analysts said the abolition of ceiling prices of bars and billets would further enhance the transparency issue that has plagued the industry while the lifting of import restrictions would address concerns on the shortage of certain steel products and create a more competitive pricing environment.
The liberalisation of exports would also be positive for the local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage of the material, they said.
Local players could increase exports without the need to dilute their domestic market share, as their products remain competitive, given the logistic advantage, the acute global shortage and possibility of the government introducing non-barrier tariff on steel imports.
“We also reckon that the government may introduce local standard or testing requirements on imported steel products to safeguard public interest and safety, hence non-tariff barrier to imports,” it said.
The research house said that with the void caused by China’s recent export tariff hike to 25%, the shortage of billets was now becoming more critical and Malaysian players had already stepped in to fill the role.
The research house said it was reverting to a 10 times steel price earnings ratio (PER) multiple on FY09 numbers, and reiterated its ultra bullish view on Malaysia’s long steel sector.
It said the liberalisation also put an end to its concern on the possible export restrictions as well as tightening of the steel price control mechanism for steel products, excusing good performance posted by steel mills.
“Nonetheless, we make no changes to our earlier decision to roll over our valuation to the more conservative FY09 estimates which are more sustainable and reasonable, as FY08 margin was exceptional thus it may not be a good benchmark for valuation purposes,” it said.
Overall, steel stocks were still trading at attractive single-digit PER on FY09 numbers despite positive developments.
The liberalisation of the price control was not surprising, and indeed was timely as international steel bars and billets were already trading at about RM3,000 and RM2,700 per tonne respectively, compared to the domestic ceiling prices of RM2,400 and RM2,000 per tonne for selected grades.
It said the price disparity had given rise to hoarding and artificial imposition of hidden charges on top of the domestic ceiling prices.
“This should offset lower domestic sales as local buyers may potentially switch to imported bars and billets. Exports to new destinations also carry the benefit of Malaysian tax rebates,” it said.
It remained concerned on the sourcing of quality steel from foreign markets, adding that the difficulty in timely sourcing of steel bars and billets, volatile steel prices and the array of multiple grades of steel which may be non-compliant with local industry standards are their concerns for domestic contractors and developers.
“As long as these external factors remain amid the ease of imports, we believe local steel producers will still mainly cater to the domestic market at global prices,” it said.
Wednesday May 14, 2008
Government to issue circular on steel price calculation
KUALA LUMPUR: The Finance Ministry will be soon issuing a circular on the price variation calculation for steel following the abolishment of the ceiling price for steel on Monday.
In a statement yesterday, the ministry said contractors carrying out conventional government projects could apply for a price variation on their contract based on the current steel price.
“The application by contractors would have to be through the implementing agency as what is in practice now,” the statement said.
The new price calculation mechanism is also effective May 12.
The ministry said that the conventional contracts for civil and construction works had a clause on price variation.
It said for civil works, the price variation calculation is based on the transaction price. This method of calculation would be continued.
For construction projects, the ministry said the calculation of price was based on the cost of 15 building materials, including steel.
This method of calculation would be revised where the suggested price variation calculation for steel will be based on the current market price and separately calculated from the indices of other building materials prices.
For government projects under the design and build category, there is no clause on price variation currently. In order to reduce the risk in price variation that is absorbed by the contractor, this category of contracts would have a price variation clause specially for steel, the statement said. – Bernama
写于五月十四日二零零八年
13-05-2008
Steel exporters to benefit from removal of restrictions KUALA LUMPUR: Steel-related stocks on Bursa Malaysia rose on the government’s move last week to free up all restrictions on the industry.
Last Friday, the government announced the lifting of ceiling prices of steel bars and billets. It also announced the lifting of restrictions on imports and exports of long steel products such as bars and rods.
Previously, there was a cap on ceiling prices of steel and the building material was not allowed to be exported while imports were restricted.
Analysts said the abolition of ceiling prices of bars and billets would further enhance the transparency issue that has plagued the industry while the lifting of import restrictions would address concerns on the shortage of certain steel products and create a more competitive pricing environment.
The liberalisation of exports would also be positive for the local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage of the material, they said.
Local players could increase exports without the need to dilute their domestic market share, as their products remain competitive, given the logistic advantage, the acute global shortage and possibility of the government introducing non-barrier tariff on steel imports.
“We also reckon that the government may introduce local standard or testing requirements on imported steel products to safeguard public interest and safety, hence non-tariff barrier to imports,” it said.
The research house said that with the void caused by China’s recent export tariff hike to 25%, the shortage of billets was now becoming more critical and Malaysian players had already stepped in to fill the role.
The research house said it was reverting to a 10 times steel price earnings ratio (PER) multiple on FY09 numbers, and reiterated its ultra bullish view on Malaysia’s long steel sector.
It said the liberalisation also put an end to its concern on the possible export restrictions as well as tightening of the steel price control mechanism for steel products, excusing good performance posted by steel mills.
“Nonetheless, we make no changes to our earlier decision to roll over our valuation to the more conservative FY09 estimates which are more sustainable and reasonable, as FY08 margin was exceptional thus it may not be a good benchmark for valuation purposes,” it said.
Overall, steel stocks were still trading at attractive single-digit PER on FY09 numbers despite positive developments.
The liberalisation of the price control was not surprising, and indeed was timely as international steel bars and billets were already trading at about RM3,000 and RM2,700 per tonne respectively, compared to the domestic ceiling prices of RM2,400 and RM2,000 per tonne for selected grades.
It said the price disparity had given rise to hoarding and artificial imposition of hidden charges on top of the domestic ceiling prices.
“This should offset lower domestic sales as local buyers may potentially switch to imported bars and billets. Exports to new destinations also carry the benefit of Malaysian tax rebates,” it said.
It remained concerned on the sourcing of quality steel from foreign markets, adding that the difficulty in timely sourcing of steel bars and billets, volatile steel prices and the array of multiple grades of steel which may be non-compliant with local industry standards are their concerns for domestic contractors and developers.
“As long as these external factors remain amid the ease of imports, we believe local steel producers will still mainly cater to the domestic market at global prices,” it said.
Wednesday May 14, 2008
Government to issue circular on steel price calculation
KUALA LUMPUR: The Finance Ministry will be soon issuing a circular on the price variation calculation for steel following the abolishment of the ceiling price for steel on Monday.
In a statement yesterday, the ministry said contractors carrying out conventional government projects could apply for a price variation on their contract based on the current steel price.
“The application by contractors would have to be through the implementing agency as what is in practice now,” the statement said.
The new price calculation mechanism is also effective May 12.
The ministry said that the conventional contracts for civil and construction works had a clause on price variation.
It said for civil works, the price variation calculation is based on the transaction price. This method of calculation would be continued.
For construction projects, the ministry said the calculation of price was based on the cost of 15 building materials, including steel.
This method of calculation would be revised where the suggested price variation calculation for steel will be based on the current market price and separately calculated from the indices of other building materials prices.
For government projects under the design and build category, there is no clause on price variation currently. In order to reduce the risk in price variation that is absorbed by the contractor, this category of contracts would have a price variation clause specially for steel, the statement said. – Bernama
写于五月十四日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（十）
嘿！好消息来了。没有顶价的限制，市场可以自由进出口钢铁，这也解释为什么过去几天钢铁股一直在涨。
CFriday May 9, 2008 MYT 7:17:31 PM
No more ceiling price for steel
PUTRAJAYA: The ceiling price on steel will be abolished effective Monday.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said with the abolishment, contractors for conventional projects under the Government could now apply for a change in the price of their contract based on the market price for steel.
"Importers of steel will now be exempted from applying for an import licence and paying import duties. Local steel manufacturers will be allowed to export their products.
"The Government has received many complaints relating to the rising prices of steel products, such as steel billet and bars, in the wake of the difficulty of obtaining supply fixed at the ceiling price.
"This is because the global price for steel is now higher than that in the local market. This has given a negative impact on the construction industry, where it will affect the implementation of the country's development projects," he said Friday in a statement here.
This, according to Abdullah, was the reason the Cabinet decided to liberalise the prices of steel products.
The liberalisation, he said, was in line with the Government's intention to ensure that the country's development process proceeded smoothly."It will also ensure that the market for steel products is more transparent and efficient," he said.
写于五月九日二零零八年
CFriday May 9, 2008 MYT 7:17:31 PM
No more ceiling price for steel
PUTRAJAYA: The ceiling price on steel will be abolished effective Monday.
Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi said with the abolishment, contractors for conventional projects under the Government could now apply for a change in the price of their contract based on the market price for steel.
"Importers of steel will now be exempted from applying for an import licence and paying import duties. Local steel manufacturers will be allowed to export their products.
"The Government has received many complaints relating to the rising prices of steel products, such as steel billet and bars, in the wake of the difficulty of obtaining supply fixed at the ceiling price.
"This is because the global price for steel is now higher than that in the local market. This has given a negative impact on the construction industry, where it will affect the implementation of the country's development projects," he said Friday in a statement here.
This, according to Abdullah, was the reason the Cabinet decided to liberalise the prices of steel products.
The liberalisation, he said, was in line with the Government's intention to ensure that the country's development process proceeded smoothly."It will also ensure that the market for steel products is more transparent and efficient," he said.
写于五月九日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（九）
CIMB Research Report的报道。其实没什么新见解，钢铁的价钱应该会稳健至到年尾。就我个人而言，我想知道到底是钢铁的原料价钱起得比较快还是钢铁的售价会起得比较快，我相信接下来几季的钢铁公司季报就会有答案了。
Steel prices to remain high. In just three months, the price of steel scrap has gone up by more than 50% to about US$620 per tonne. The price of another main raw material, coking coal, is also on an uptrend.
Recently, BHP Billiton, the leading Australian miner, got steel millers to agree to triple its coking coal prices. Given the escalating raw material prices, we believe steel prices will remain high as millers will pass on the rising costs to their customers. With international steel prices likely to remain on their upward trajectory, we believe the earnings momentum of the local steel millers will be sustainable over the next 6-9 months.
Global demand remains robust. Admittedly, delays in various mega projects on the local front may dampen domestic demand. However, demand for steel remains robust in the international market. The International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts global apparent steel consumption to grow by 6.7% from 1,202mt in 2007 to 1,282m mt in 2008, buoyed by growth of emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East.
China to continue export curbs. Despite the attractive international prices, China’s Iron and Steel Association expect exports from China to fall from 63m tonnes in 2007 to about 36m tonnes this year. This is because average steel consumption in China is estimated to grow at a faster pace than production.
写于五月七日二零零八年
Steel prices to remain high. In just three months, the price of steel scrap has gone up by more than 50% to about US$620 per tonne. The price of another main raw material, coking coal, is also on an uptrend.
Recently, BHP Billiton, the leading Australian miner, got steel millers to agree to triple its coking coal prices. Given the escalating raw material prices, we believe steel prices will remain high as millers will pass on the rising costs to their customers. With international steel prices likely to remain on their upward trajectory, we believe the earnings momentum of the local steel millers will be sustainable over the next 6-9 months.
Global demand remains robust. Admittedly, delays in various mega projects on the local front may dampen domestic demand. However, demand for steel remains robust in the international market. The International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts global apparent steel consumption to grow by 6.7% from 1,202mt in 2007 to 1,282m mt in 2008, buoyed by growth of emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East.
China to continue export curbs. Despite the attractive international prices, China’s Iron and Steel Association expect exports from China to fall from 63m tonnes in 2007 to about 36m tonnes this year. This is because average steel consumption in China is estimated to grow at a faster pace than production.
写于五月七日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（八）
一篇关于ONASTEL的部分报道，取自南洋商报。个人认为如果只是为了高股息而买入ONASTEL，那不如不买。
2008-4-28
国内最大冷扎钢卷厂商。彦钢周息率料可观
彦钢控股是国内最大冷扎钢卷厂商，除了冷扎钢卷，该集团也生产镀锌钢铁及预涂漆镀锌钢铁。
目前，该集团这3项产品的年产能，分别是62万4千公吨丶24万公吨及12万公吨。事实上，该集团刚于去年4月，完成将冷扎钢卷年产能提高40%至62万4千公吨的计划。上述增产计划的全面影响，将从2008财政年（截至08年12月31日）开始彰显。不过，国家经济放缓，以及令吉对美元汇率预计走强，将局部抵消上述利好因素。
成本上扬侵蚀赚幅
此外，原料成本及营运成本上扬，也将侵蚀彦钢控股的赚幅，因此虽然彦钢控股的营业额预料将按年增长14%，但净盈利的按年增幅预计只有8%。
为了加强长期的竞争力，该集团也计划朝向高增值产品发展，并获得其大股东中国钢铁的鼎力相助。
很大程度上，市场已消化了国内基建计划可能展延或延迟完工，以及营运成本扬升的负面因素。而且，彦钢控股8至10%的周息率相当吸引人，并预料可获得持续，这应可为彦钢控股的股价提供支撑。
写于五月二日二零零八年
Sunday, May 25, 2008
名人名言（四）
公司回购自身的股票就一定是好事吗？看看David Pauly怎么说。
The skinny on buybacks :-
Ø Investors have somehow accepted the notion that stock buybacks are good for them.
Ø Often a company with bad news to tell couples it with a plan to repurchase some of its shares - and, in knee-jerk fashion, the stock price goes up instead of down. Hyped as a device to increase EPS and therefore, stock prices buybacks have soared.
Ø If companies actually can’t find investment promising reasonable returns, why not give the extra cash to shareholders? Stockholders could use the money to seek higher returns on their own. Analysts and chief executive officers talk nonsense when they insist that buybacks ‘return’ money to shareholders.
Ø Companies may use repurchases of shares as a cover for poor earnings growth.Many big investors, continue to pressure companies to buy back their shares. Better to urge them to make more imaginative use of their cash.
The skinny on buybacks :-
Ø Investors have somehow accepted the notion that stock buybacks are good for them.
Ø Often a company with bad news to tell couples it with a plan to repurchase some of its shares - and, in knee-jerk fashion, the stock price goes up instead of down. Hyped as a device to increase EPS and therefore, stock prices buybacks have soared.
Ø If companies actually can’t find investment promising reasonable returns, why not give the extra cash to shareholders? Stockholders could use the money to seek higher returns on their own. Analysts and chief executive officers talk nonsense when they insist that buybacks ‘return’ money to shareholders.
Ø Companies may use repurchases of shares as a cover for poor earnings growth.Many big investors, continue to pressure companies to buy back their shares. Better to urge them to make more imaginative use of their cash.
Friday, May 23, 2008
是投资，不是炒股！
前几天的一个晚上，有个来自中国的同事来敲我的房间门，老实说，我不是很喜欢当我在酒店留宿的时候有人来我房间，尤其是我在阅读的时候。但因刚刚放工时才跟他搭同一辆车子回酒店，他知道我在房间内，还真不能装作不在，所以只好开门让他进来。
这家伙一进入我的房间，我就后悔了。原来他的手提电脑在他房间内不能无线上网，要求我帮忙看一下。本来，同事一场（虽然不是很熟),帮他做一下也没什么大不了，但这家伙一进来，就好像是来参观我的房间似的每个角落都在查看，还真以为他遗失了什么东西在我的房间似的。更甚的是给他发现了我的一些投资书籍，他回过头对我说：“原来你也炒股。”
我更正他，“我不是炒股，是投资！”
“我在大陆也有炒股，你炒什么股阿？”他不理会我的更正继续发问。
“我是在投资，长期投资。”我再次的更正他，然后将他的电脑丢还他，“弄好了。”之后将他推出房外，马上关上房门。
虽然目前身在越南，但我想说的却是中国。近年来中国经济起飞，很多中国人真的都在炒股。我记得在四、五年前，当我身在上海最大的书局 - 上海书城时，当时关于投资的书籍并不多见。去年中，当我重游上海书城时，投资书籍真可说是多到眼花缭乱，可见中国人的转变。
话说回来，为什么我一直在强调投资而不是炒股？这其中，我要强调的不是字眼的问题，而是心态的问题。我个人非常的认为，没有运用正确的心态来买股票，那你很可能真的是在赌博、或像我那中国朋友所谓的炒股。要记得，能在股市中快速致富的人可说是少之又少。大多数的短期股票买卖者，长期来说，多数都是输家。只有以正确的心态，将股票买卖当作是一门自己拥有的生意，经过认真的评估，然后再以适当的价钱买入，长期下来，你才能有机会赚钱，你只会放弃此生意当公司的某些基本因素开始改变。
为什么用拥有作生意的心态买股票赚钱的机率比较大呢？因为当你以此心态买股，你会更注重公司的基本面如赚利、公司前景等，而不是只看公司的股票价钱。
那，是不是只要注重公司的基本面与前景，投资就一定赚钱？其实，那倒未必，但至少可以保本，要知道只要你不亏，你股票赚钱的机率就会相对的提高。
这家伙一进入我的房间，我就后悔了。原来他的手提电脑在他房间内不能无线上网，要求我帮忙看一下。本来，同事一场（虽然不是很熟),帮他做一下也没什么大不了，但这家伙一进来，就好像是来参观我的房间似的每个角落都在查看，还真以为他遗失了什么东西在我的房间似的。更甚的是给他发现了我的一些投资书籍，他回过头对我说：“原来你也炒股。”
我更正他，“我不是炒股，是投资！”
“我在大陆也有炒股，你炒什么股阿？”他不理会我的更正继续发问。
“我是在投资，长期投资。”我再次的更正他，然后将他的电脑丢还他，“弄好了。”之后将他推出房外，马上关上房门。
虽然目前身在越南，但我想说的却是中国。近年来中国经济起飞，很多中国人真的都在炒股。我记得在四、五年前，当我身在上海最大的书局 - 上海书城时，当时关于投资的书籍并不多见。去年中，当我重游上海书城时，投资书籍真可说是多到眼花缭乱，可见中国人的转变。
话说回来，为什么我一直在强调投资而不是炒股？这其中，我要强调的不是字眼的问题，而是心态的问题。我个人非常的认为，没有运用正确的心态来买股票，那你很可能真的是在赌博、或像我那中国朋友所谓的炒股。要记得，能在股市中快速致富的人可说是少之又少。大多数的短期股票买卖者，长期来说，多数都是输家。只有以正确的心态，将股票买卖当作是一门自己拥有的生意，经过认真的评估，然后再以适当的价钱买入，长期下来，你才能有机会赚钱，你只会放弃此生意当公司的某些基本因素开始改变。
为什么用拥有作生意的心态买股票赚钱的机率比较大呢？因为当你以此心态买股，你会更注重公司的基本面如赚利、公司前景等，而不是只看公司的股票价钱。
那，是不是只要注重公司的基本面与前景，投资就一定赚钱？其实，那倒未必，但至少可以保本，要知道只要你不亏，你股票赚钱的机率就会相对的提高。
Monday, May 12, 2008
财报风云（二）
损益表
损益表可以看出上市公司过去一段经营期间（一季丶或一年）营运状况，可从报表中看出一家公司下列的营运情况：
- 生意好不好丶营业额有多大？
- 购料成本如何？合不合理？
- 管销费用会不会过高？
- 本业营运到底赚不赚钱？
- 来自非本业（列如投资股票）的利润有多少？
- 来自非本业的支出规模如何？
- 邀税之后，是不是真的有赚钱？
- 身为股东，你是否可以分红？
损益表包括下列事项（名称或有不同）：
- 销货收入丶又称营业收入丶总营收丶总收入丶销货总额（revenue）。指一家公司在一段时间内因为销售货品或提供服务所收到的金额。
- 营业成本丶又称成本或销售成本（cost of sales）。就是企业为了生产产品所支付的原料成本支出。包括购买原物料丶生产及制造设备的必要支出丶生产线人员的工资丶加班费丶产品完成包装丶运送费丶油费丶产品权利金或商标费用等。
- 营业毛利（gross profit） = 营业收入 – 营业成本。营业毛利率可以显示企业的产品是否真的有竞争力。
- 营业费用（distribution expense + administration expenses + finance costs）丶又称管销费用丶销货费用丶营业支出。企业为了产品销售或服务提供所应负担的管理及销售等费用，包括业务员的佣金丶训练费丶行政人员的薪资丶退休金丶广告费丶办公室租金丶研发费用丶固定资产的折旧丶无形资产（如商誉）摊销等。
- 营业净利丶又称营业利益（operating profit）。 = 营业毛利 – 营业费用。
- 营业外收入（other income）。也就是非营业活动产生的收入，如短期投资的股票丶债卷等产生的利益，或出售长期投资的产业之后扣除帐面成本的利得，或是股利丶利息丶租金等的收入。
- 营业外费用（other expenses）。常见的营业外费用如银行借款的利息支出丶投资股票或债卷的亏损，存货或兌换外币产生的损失等。除外，天然灾害所造成的损失也可归类在此项目。
- 税前净利（profit before tax）。显示企业的总经营能力。
所得税（tax expense）。
- 净利（net profit）。
- 每股盈余丶或称每股净利（EPS）。
= 净利 / 上市公司发行流通在外的股数
具有稀释普通股权益的证卷，一般包括可转换特别股丶可转换公司债丶认股权证等，也就是上述证卷持有人，可于到期后将证卷依发行条件订定的转换比列，转换成普通股，使得普通股的股数增加，一旦普通股的股数增多，相同的盈余除以更多的股数，每股盈余就会下降。
对于经常发行大量转换债的公司，投资人必须注意是否带来严重的股本广增，或到期是否有能力偿还债信。
Saturday, May 10, 2008
硬如钢铁（七）
另一篇看好钢铁价格的报道（来自The Star，只取部分）。
Wednesday April 9, 2008
Long steel expected to stay firm in near term
PETALING JAYA: The super cycle in Malaysia's long steel sector is expected to last another two years, thus positioning the sector in the most favourable environment.
OSK Investment Bank in its latest report is maintaining an “overweight” on the sector.
“The steel stocks are trading at attractive single-digit price earnings ratio on their financial year 2008 numbers despite current positive developments,” it said.
The potential removal of present ceiling prices for steel bars and billets should enhance the transparency issues that had been plaguing the industry and could lead to a potential market re-rating, it added.
“The liberalisation of imports will not dilute local steel millers' market share in Malaysia, while the free export will bode well for local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage in billets,” it said.
While the prospect of a free market (cancellation of present ceiling prices) seemed to contradict the earlier proposed Automatic Price Mechanism for billets and steel bars, OSK said the move would help enhance earnings visibility of steel millers as both allowed timely cost pass through.
In 2007, there were three price increases for billets and steel bars. The 12% hike in December saw the ceiling price for standard billets raised to RM1,907 per tonne and bars to RM2,278 per tonne.
Currently, the regional steel prices were trading about RM800 per tonne higher than the local steel ceiling prices.
On the regional front, there was a mismatch between higher capacity installed for downstream facilities at 31.7 million tonnes against upstream steel making at 18.3 million tonnes per year. There was a dire need for about five million tonnes of billets within the Asean region, OSK said.
写于四月九日二零零八年
Wednesday April 9, 2008
Long steel expected to stay firm in near term
PETALING JAYA: The super cycle in Malaysia's long steel sector is expected to last another two years, thus positioning the sector in the most favourable environment.
OSK Investment Bank in its latest report is maintaining an “overweight” on the sector.
“The steel stocks are trading at attractive single-digit price earnings ratio on their financial year 2008 numbers despite current positive developments,” it said.
The potential removal of present ceiling prices for steel bars and billets should enhance the transparency issues that had been plaguing the industry and could lead to a potential market re-rating, it added.
“The liberalisation of imports will not dilute local steel millers' market share in Malaysia, while the free export will bode well for local steel manufacturers to capitalise on the current regional shortage in billets,” it said.
While the prospect of a free market (cancellation of present ceiling prices) seemed to contradict the earlier proposed Automatic Price Mechanism for billets and steel bars, OSK said the move would help enhance earnings visibility of steel millers as both allowed timely cost pass through.
In 2007, there were three price increases for billets and steel bars. The 12% hike in December saw the ceiling price for standard billets raised to RM1,907 per tonne and bars to RM2,278 per tonne.
Currently, the regional steel prices were trading about RM800 per tonne higher than the local steel ceiling prices.
On the regional front, there was a mismatch between higher capacity installed for downstream facilities at 31.7 million tonnes against upstream steel making at 18.3 million tonnes per year. There was a dire need for about five million tonnes of billets within the Asean region, OSK said.
写于四月九日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（六）
个人觉得最近关于钢铁的好消息蛮多的，看来市场已开始看好钢铁股。以下报道取自星洲与The Edge，只取部分内容。
傳鋼條洋灰頂價將調高‧鋼鐵業盈利料激漲
2008-04-08
（吉隆坡）市場傳聞聯邦政府計劃提高鋼條與洋灰頂價，以符合市場競爭。分析員唱好這項計劃，看好在區域供應吃緊下，鋼鐵業者未來盈利可激漲。
其中，僑豐投資研究認為所有鋼鐵股評級都誘人，加上新措施可能提高盈利可見度，2008財政年本益比也只有單位數下，因此建議“加碼”評級。
大馬研究也认同鋼鐵業供需動力不斷提高，加上第9大馬計劃如雙軌電動火车與檳城第2大橋計劃推行可能推高需求，因此推薦“跑贏大市”。
貿工部宣佈將會針對本地鋼鐵領域做研究，以逐步開放本地鋼跌業，其中包括逐步移除鋼條與鋼坯頂價，以提高鋼鐵價格透明度。而未來更不排除廢除頂價制，而改用自動報價機制（APM）。
雖然上述計劃尚未成形，同時也未決定執行时间，不過分析員認為這項措施貸給鋼鐵業者的影響是正面的。
進入“超級週期”
僑豐研究表示，目前全球鋼坯供應短缺，加上中國將鋼坯出口稅調高至25%，加深區域供應吃緊，並讓鋼鐵業者進入“超級週期”的盛況。
“移除頂價不僅可幫助鋼鐵提煉商透過及時轉移成本，提高盈利可見度，而開放外國鋼鐵業者進口也不會侵蝕本地鋼鐵市佔率，因此市場鋼坯供需已不平衡，而外國鋼鐵業者還面臨運輸費提高問題，這有利本地業者在價格上享有優勢。”
大馬研究也不擔心政府可能延長從沙巴進口至半島的鋼條與洋灰AP的短暫發放時間。同時中國提高出口稅將會限制出口量，本地業者反而可“趁虛而入”，進軍更多外國市場。
同時，由於出口鋼鐵產品價格則不受控制，而一旦提高鋼鐵頂價，料不會影響鋼鐵業者的金融情況。
08-04-2008: Steel overweight amid possible ceiling price abolishment THE Malaysian steel industry could be moving towards the automated pricing mechanism (APM), with the possible abolishment of the ceiling price for domestic steel bars and billets, said AmResearch.
In a research note yesterday, it maintained an overweight call on the steel sector amidst improving demand/supply dynamics, while the potential dismantling of the ceiling price towards the APM, due to the widening local-regional pricing gap, implied further upside for domestic steel prices.
Quoting local news reports, AmResearch said the federal government was prepared to consider lifting the ceiling prices for steel bars and cement.
“While no timeframe has been imposed, the federal government acknowledges the need for competitive pricing for both steel and cement,” said the research house.
The current price of domestic steel bars and billets are RM2,278/metric tonne (mt) and RM1,918/mt, respectively.
It said in view of rising input costs, the abolishment of the steel price ceiling could finally move the domestic industry pricing structure towards the APM, similar to the cement industry, adding that major Japanese, Chinese and Korean millers had agreed to between a 65% and 71% increase in iron ore prices beginning this month.
AmResearch also said that domestic steel demand was expected to get a kick from the commencement of large ticket Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) jobs, such as the national electrified double-tracking project (Ipoh-Padang Besar), and the second Penang monorail.
The research house said it was not unduly concerned with the government’s move to extend the temporary issuance of approved permits (AP) for the importation of steel bars and cement for Sabah to contractors in Peninsular Malaysia.
Apart from rising international steel prices and escalating freight costs, it believed domestic millers had already proven their competitiveness, as reflected by the increasing penetration into export markets.
Meanwhile, an industry observer told The Edge that without a ceiling, steel prices could be at least RM600 higher than the current price.
He said the need of a ceiling price review was urgent, in order for the grey market for steel not to proliferate, adding that 9MP projects, which have been delayed due to changes in state governments, could be boosted by an abolishment of the ceiling.
“There is a stronger likelihood now the ceiling will be abolished. At least the government is willing to consider it now, when they weren’t before,” he said.
写于四月八日二零零八年
傳鋼條洋灰頂價將調高‧鋼鐵業盈利料激漲
2008-04-08
（吉隆坡）市場傳聞聯邦政府計劃提高鋼條與洋灰頂價，以符合市場競爭。分析員唱好這項計劃，看好在區域供應吃緊下，鋼鐵業者未來盈利可激漲。
其中，僑豐投資研究認為所有鋼鐵股評級都誘人，加上新措施可能提高盈利可見度，2008財政年本益比也只有單位數下，因此建議“加碼”評級。
大馬研究也认同鋼鐵業供需動力不斷提高，加上第9大馬計劃如雙軌電動火车與檳城第2大橋計劃推行可能推高需求，因此推薦“跑贏大市”。
貿工部宣佈將會針對本地鋼鐵領域做研究，以逐步開放本地鋼跌業，其中包括逐步移除鋼條與鋼坯頂價，以提高鋼鐵價格透明度。而未來更不排除廢除頂價制，而改用自動報價機制（APM）。
雖然上述計劃尚未成形，同時也未決定執行时间，不過分析員認為這項措施貸給鋼鐵業者的影響是正面的。
進入“超級週期”
僑豐研究表示，目前全球鋼坯供應短缺，加上中國將鋼坯出口稅調高至25%，加深區域供應吃緊，並讓鋼鐵業者進入“超級週期”的盛況。
“移除頂價不僅可幫助鋼鐵提煉商透過及時轉移成本，提高盈利可見度，而開放外國鋼鐵業者進口也不會侵蝕本地鋼鐵市佔率，因此市場鋼坯供需已不平衡，而外國鋼鐵業者還面臨運輸費提高問題，這有利本地業者在價格上享有優勢。”
大馬研究也不擔心政府可能延長從沙巴進口至半島的鋼條與洋灰AP的短暫發放時間。同時中國提高出口稅將會限制出口量，本地業者反而可“趁虛而入”，進軍更多外國市場。
同時，由於出口鋼鐵產品價格則不受控制，而一旦提高鋼鐵頂價，料不會影響鋼鐵業者的金融情況。
08-04-2008: Steel overweight amid possible ceiling price abolishment THE Malaysian steel industry could be moving towards the automated pricing mechanism (APM), with the possible abolishment of the ceiling price for domestic steel bars and billets, said AmResearch.
In a research note yesterday, it maintained an overweight call on the steel sector amidst improving demand/supply dynamics, while the potential dismantling of the ceiling price towards the APM, due to the widening local-regional pricing gap, implied further upside for domestic steel prices.
Quoting local news reports, AmResearch said the federal government was prepared to consider lifting the ceiling prices for steel bars and cement.
“While no timeframe has been imposed, the federal government acknowledges the need for competitive pricing for both steel and cement,” said the research house.
The current price of domestic steel bars and billets are RM2,278/metric tonne (mt) and RM1,918/mt, respectively.
It said in view of rising input costs, the abolishment of the steel price ceiling could finally move the domestic industry pricing structure towards the APM, similar to the cement industry, adding that major Japanese, Chinese and Korean millers had agreed to between a 65% and 71% increase in iron ore prices beginning this month.
AmResearch also said that domestic steel demand was expected to get a kick from the commencement of large ticket Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) jobs, such as the national electrified double-tracking project (Ipoh-Padang Besar), and the second Penang monorail.
The research house said it was not unduly concerned with the government’s move to extend the temporary issuance of approved permits (AP) for the importation of steel bars and cement for Sabah to contractors in Peninsular Malaysia.
Apart from rising international steel prices and escalating freight costs, it believed domestic millers had already proven their competitiveness, as reflected by the increasing penetration into export markets.
Meanwhile, an industry observer told The Edge that without a ceiling, steel prices could be at least RM600 higher than the current price.
He said the need of a ceiling price review was urgent, in order for the grey market for steel not to proliferate, adding that 9MP projects, which have been delayed due to changes in state governments, could be boosted by an abolishment of the ceiling.
“There is a stronger likelihood now the ceiling will be abolished. At least the government is willing to consider it now, when they weren’t before,” he said.
写于四月八日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（五）
来自The Edge的报道。只要自動定價機制一被推行，本地钢铁的价钱肯定会调高，问题是刚在大选大输的国政还敢让它起价吗？不起的话，钢铁业者肯定会减产，到时本地钢铁市场可能会出现短缺的现象。
04-04-2008: Govt mulls liberalisation of steel and cement sectors
The government is studying the feasibilty of gradually liberalising the local steel and cement industries, a move which could allow builders and property developers in Peninsular Malaysia to import long steel products.
International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the authorities' decision to review its policies on steel and cement was aimed at boosting competitiveness in both sectors, following the government's move to allow imports both materials into Sabah and Sarawak in February.
"We need to progressively liberalise the steel and cement industries. There will be certain controls in terms of exports and pricing.
"We might have to look again (at the possibility of allowing the import of steel into Peninsular Malaysia)," Muhyiddin told reporters.
Sarawak’s The Eastern Times reported in February that the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry had allowed the import of steel and cement in Sabah and Sarawak amid a shortage of the construction materials in the local market.
The materials, according to the news report, could be sourced from countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.
In a joint statement on March 8 last year, the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association and Master Builders Association Malaysia had attributed the shortage of steel products in the country to local steel millers preferring to export their products to capitalise on higher prices overseas.
Both associations contended that many contractors had to buy steel bars from the grey market to keep up with construction schedules, at prices higher than the controlled rates set by the government.
"It won't have a major impact on local steel players," OSK Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ng Sem Guan told The Edge.
According to Ng, should foreign steel products be allowed entry into Peninsular Malaysia, local millers' access capacity would still allow them to capitalise on the shortage of the material in the Asean region due to China's move to curb exports of the building material.
写于四月五日二零零八年
04-04-2008: Govt mulls liberalisation of steel and cement sectors
The government is studying the feasibilty of gradually liberalising the local steel and cement industries, a move which could allow builders and property developers in Peninsular Malaysia to import long steel products.
International Trade and Industry Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin said the authorities' decision to review its policies on steel and cement was aimed at boosting competitiveness in both sectors, following the government's move to allow imports both materials into Sabah and Sarawak in February.
"We need to progressively liberalise the steel and cement industries. There will be certain controls in terms of exports and pricing.
"We might have to look again (at the possibility of allowing the import of steel into Peninsular Malaysia)," Muhyiddin told reporters.
Sarawak’s The Eastern Times reported in February that the Domestic Trade and Consumer Affairs Ministry had allowed the import of steel and cement in Sabah and Sarawak amid a shortage of the construction materials in the local market.
The materials, according to the news report, could be sourced from countries like the Philippines and Vietnam.
In a joint statement on March 8 last year, the Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association and Master Builders Association Malaysia had attributed the shortage of steel products in the country to local steel millers preferring to export their products to capitalise on higher prices overseas.
Both associations contended that many contractors had to buy steel bars from the grey market to keep up with construction schedules, at prices higher than the controlled rates set by the government.
"It won't have a major impact on local steel players," OSK Investment Bank Bhd analyst Ng Sem Guan told The Edge.
According to Ng, should foreign steel products be allowed entry into Peninsular Malaysia, local millers' access capacity would still allow them to capitalise on the shortage of the material in the Asean region due to China's move to curb exports of the building material.
写于四月五日二零零八年
水电交加（八）
YTLPOWR提议的新凭单终于在4月28日尘埃落定。YTLPOWR的股东将可以以每三股普通股而行使一股价值RM0.10的凭单，除权日在5月13日。YTLPOWR将会发出最多约2.2b股的凭单，此凭单的转换价为RM1.25。
此消息一出，YTLPOWR的股价马上应声而起。让我们来作一些算数。YTLPOWR在5月10日的闭市价为RM2.64。让我们假设此股价可以维持到除权日，以每股RM0.10的凭单，加上RM1.25的转换价，那每股凭单将值最少RM1.29。过了除权日，YTLPOWR的母股价钱将会每股调整RM0.32。这就是所谓的warrant deep in the money。
看了好处，再来看此凭单对YTLPOWR的影响。根据我的资料，YTLPOWR到截至2QFY08止，拥有约RM7.7b的现金或约当现金。这2.2b的凭单将使YTLPOWR的现金持有增加到约RM8.8b，问题来了，如此大的现金，但到目前为止没看到YTLPOWR宣布任何的计划或项目，这么庞大的现金拿来干吗？回购自己的股票？(如果是的话，请投资者马上卖出持股。）
YTLPOWR目前流动在市场的股票据数为大约5.39b，YTLPOWR-WA的流动股票为860.6m，让我们假设YTLPOWR FY08的净盈利可以达到跟去年同样的RM1b，YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余（fully diluted EPS）大约为16.7sen。如果再加上这2.2b股的新凭单，那YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余将会是12.3sen，被稀释掉了约26%。
所以，如果你已经持有YTLPOWR的股票一段时间，恭喜你，YTLPOWR给了你一个大红包，但之后如果YTLPOWR没有好好利用此资金，你应该知道要怎么做。如果你只是想在5月13日之前赚取快钱，那就免了吧！除权日之后，YTLPOWR的股价将会调整与回跌，除非另有好消息出现。
此消息一出，YTLPOWR的股价马上应声而起。让我们来作一些算数。YTLPOWR在5月10日的闭市价为RM2.64。让我们假设此股价可以维持到除权日，以每股RM0.10的凭单，加上RM1.25的转换价，那每股凭单将值最少RM1.29。过了除权日，YTLPOWR的母股价钱将会每股调整RM0.32。这就是所谓的warrant deep in the money。
看了好处，再来看此凭单对YTLPOWR的影响。根据我的资料，YTLPOWR到截至2QFY08止，拥有约RM7.7b的现金或约当现金。这2.2b的凭单将使YTLPOWR的现金持有增加到约RM8.8b，问题来了，如此大的现金，但到目前为止没看到YTLPOWR宣布任何的计划或项目，这么庞大的现金拿来干吗？回购自己的股票？(如果是的话，请投资者马上卖出持股。）
YTLPOWR目前流动在市场的股票据数为大约5.39b，YTLPOWR-WA的流动股票为860.6m，让我们假设YTLPOWR FY08的净盈利可以达到跟去年同样的RM1b，YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余（fully diluted EPS）大约为16.7sen。如果再加上这2.2b股的新凭单，那YTLPOWR的每股稀释盈余将会是12.3sen，被稀释掉了约26%。
所以，如果你已经持有YTLPOWR的股票一段时间，恭喜你，YTLPOWR给了你一个大红包，但之后如果YTLPOWR没有好好利用此资金，你应该知道要怎么做。如果你只是想在5月13日之前赚取快钱，那就免了吧！除权日之后，YTLPOWR的股价将会调整与回跌，除非另有好消息出现。
Friday, May 09, 2008
硬如钢铁（四）
另一篇对大马钢铁业乐观的新闻，来自星洲日报，在此作个记录。延迟推行自动動定价机制只会让本地与国际的钢铁价格差距越来越大，到时将会导致本地钢铁短缺。
政局變動無損東盟需求‧鋼鐵前景超級樂觀
2008-03-14
全國大選變化可能導致某些工程延遲及檢討，國內鋼鐵產品需求放緩並延遲推行自動定價機制（APM）。不過，這對整體鋼鐵業盈利預測沒有顥顯著影響，因東盟市場鋼坯持續短缺，激勵推高鋼鐵產品出口與價格，使本地長型鋼鐵領域仍處於“超級循環”格局。
東盟市場對鋼鐵產品需求殷切，推高本地鋼鐵商的出口與賺幅，料使鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格節節揚升。這使僑豐研究綜合長型鋼鐵生產商的評級保持在“超級樂觀”評級。
聯昌研究指出，儘管大型工程展延可能對本地鋼鐵需求帶來衝擊，但新加坡、越南等海外鋼鐵需求持續攀高，加上中國政府減低鋼鐵出口措施，剔除價格優勢和傾銷活動，為其他業者提供填補缺口的機會，業者料可通過外銷抵禦相關衝擊。
雖然國內鋼胚和鋼鐵頂價在去年揚升近40%，但本地鋼鐵價仍較出口價低。目前，新加坡建築鋼鐵和鋼胚出口價為每公噸790美元和740美元，較國內市場頂價高出11%至20%。
不過，與洋灰業相同，鋼鐵業可能還需一段長時間方能看到自動報價機制落實，但國際鋼鐵價格高企，將為鋼鐵業創造更強的討價還價能力，這是洋灰業無法望之項背的。
僑豐表示，為反映市場疲弱情緒，將國內鋼鐵領域的2008年財政年預測本益比目標從之前的12倍削減至10倍，不過還是看好對擁有綜合長型鋼鐵生產設施鋼鐵商。
出口強勁
鋼鐵領域保持盈利預測，主要是出口強勁的推動，使下游鋼鐵產品年度成長2%至3%的保守預測將可輕易達致。同時，潛在延遲推行自動定價機制也將不會顯著影響鋼鐵商的盈利表現。
分析員指出，鋼鐵產品─鋼坯及鋼條在2007年3度起價，包括4月份起20%、6月份每公噸150令吉附加費及12月份再起12%。
中國為主要動力
中國效應因素為鋼鐵領域蓬勃亮麗的主要動力；中國於2008年1月1日即調高某些鋼鐵產品的出口稅捐，主要是應對在鋼鐵市場大傾銷的指責，及削減能源消耗及避免更嚴重的排污課題。
除此之外，中國對鋼坯實施25%的出口稅捐（之前僅為10%），將會導致東盟鋼鐵產品市場出現持續短缺局面，因為之前中國出口占東盟市場的75%需求量。而新加坡、越南、印尼、菲律賓及泰國等，皆為鋼鐵產品進口國。
大馬5家上市長型鋼鐵綜合生產商將需要填補市場的供應真空，本地鋼鐵商料將搭上“超級循環”的列車。
僑豐表示，隨著中國的缺場穩定全球市場需求，預料鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格將應聲而起，賺幅也會“水漲船高”。
廢鋼價格偏高及2008年鐵礦合約漲升65%，使鋼鐵商2008年財政年的平均銷售價格揚升15%至20%。
今年首季國際鋼鐵價格已漲10%
截至今年首季的國際鋼鐵價格已漲升5%至10%，使鋼鐵商擁有更好的定價能力，任何成本進一步揚升可轉嫁給消費者。
國際數家鋼鐵集團合併鞏固，包括米塔爾阿賽洛的世紀大合併，使國際鋼鐵業出現新的格局，也有助支撐更高的鋼鐵價格。
写于三月十四日二零零八年
政局變動無損東盟需求‧鋼鐵前景超級樂觀
2008-03-14
全國大選變化可能導致某些工程延遲及檢討，國內鋼鐵產品需求放緩並延遲推行自動定價機制（APM）。不過，這對整體鋼鐵業盈利預測沒有顥顯著影響，因東盟市場鋼坯持續短缺，激勵推高鋼鐵產品出口與價格，使本地長型鋼鐵領域仍處於“超級循環”格局。
東盟市場對鋼鐵產品需求殷切，推高本地鋼鐵商的出口與賺幅，料使鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格節節揚升。這使僑豐研究綜合長型鋼鐵生產商的評級保持在“超級樂觀”評級。
聯昌研究指出，儘管大型工程展延可能對本地鋼鐵需求帶來衝擊，但新加坡、越南等海外鋼鐵需求持續攀高，加上中國政府減低鋼鐵出口措施，剔除價格優勢和傾銷活動，為其他業者提供填補缺口的機會，業者料可通過外銷抵禦相關衝擊。
雖然國內鋼胚和鋼鐵頂價在去年揚升近40%，但本地鋼鐵價仍較出口價低。目前，新加坡建築鋼鐵和鋼胚出口價為每公噸790美元和740美元，較國內市場頂價高出11%至20%。
不過，與洋灰業相同，鋼鐵業可能還需一段長時間方能看到自動報價機制落實，但國際鋼鐵價格高企，將為鋼鐵業創造更強的討價還價能力，這是洋灰業無法望之項背的。
僑豐表示，為反映市場疲弱情緒，將國內鋼鐵領域的2008年財政年預測本益比目標從之前的12倍削減至10倍，不過還是看好對擁有綜合長型鋼鐵生產設施鋼鐵商。
出口強勁
鋼鐵領域保持盈利預測，主要是出口強勁的推動，使下游鋼鐵產品年度成長2%至3%的保守預測將可輕易達致。同時，潛在延遲推行自動定價機制也將不會顯著影響鋼鐵商的盈利表現。
分析員指出，鋼鐵產品─鋼坯及鋼條在2007年3度起價，包括4月份起20%、6月份每公噸150令吉附加費及12月份再起12%。
中國為主要動力
中國效應因素為鋼鐵領域蓬勃亮麗的主要動力；中國於2008年1月1日即調高某些鋼鐵產品的出口稅捐，主要是應對在鋼鐵市場大傾銷的指責，及削減能源消耗及避免更嚴重的排污課題。
除此之外，中國對鋼坯實施25%的出口稅捐（之前僅為10%），將會導致東盟鋼鐵產品市場出現持續短缺局面，因為之前中國出口占東盟市場的75%需求量。而新加坡、越南、印尼、菲律賓及泰國等，皆為鋼鐵產品進口國。
大馬5家上市長型鋼鐵綜合生產商將需要填補市場的供應真空，本地鋼鐵商料將搭上“超級循環”的列車。
僑豐表示，隨著中國的缺場穩定全球市場需求，預料鋼鐵產品的平均銷售價格將應聲而起，賺幅也會“水漲船高”。
廢鋼價格偏高及2008年鐵礦合約漲升65%，使鋼鐵商2008年財政年的平均銷售價格揚升15%至20%。
今年首季國際鋼鐵價格已漲10%
截至今年首季的國際鋼鐵價格已漲升5%至10%，使鋼鐵商擁有更好的定價能力，任何成本進一步揚升可轉嫁給消費者。
國際數家鋼鐵集團合併鞏固，包括米塔爾阿賽洛的世紀大合併，使國際鋼鐵業出現新的格局，也有助支撐更高的鋼鐵價格。
写于三月十四日二零零八年
硬如钢铁（三）
这是一篇对钢铁股有利的报道，来自星洲日报。国际铁矿石的价钱大起，受保护的大马钢铁业能置身事外吗？
鐵礦石價格大幅調高65%。鋼鐵股料水漲船高
20th Feb 2008
（吉隆坡19日訊）隨著數家主要亞洲鋼鐵廠一致同意，大幅調高鐵礦石價格65%，預料這將會令全球鋼鐵價格同步上揚，分析員因此大力唱好本地鋼鐵股。這些主要的亞洲鋼鐵製造商，包括浦項鋼鐵（POSCO）、新日本鋼鐵（NIPPON STEEL）及日本JFE鋼鐵，已經同意將2008年4月到09年3月份的鐵礦石結算價格，從原本的每噸72.11美元，提高到118.98美元，調升幅度達65%。
根據傳統，主要鋼鐵製造商與鐵礦石供應商之間的第一個大型合約，將會是全球價格的基準，因此，隨著上述三家鋼鐵公司同意新價格后，預料歐洲、北美及中國的主要供鐵公司，也將會同意類似的價格。
上漲成本或轉嫁消費者
分析員表示，雖然高額的鐵礦石成本，將會令鋼鐵製造商的生產成本高企，不過，由于目前全球市場對鋼鐵及鋼鐵製品的需求仍非常強勁，因此，鋼鐵製造商相信能夠將額外的成本，通過漲價的方式，轉嫁給最終消費者。在這種情況下，分析員認為，這些鋼鐵公司將能夠維持它們的賺幅。
鋼鐵業晉「超級週期」
現階段，研究分析員認為，鋼鐵製造領域的基本面仍維持強穩。他維持鋼鐵領域和鋼鐵股「超越大市」評級。
此外，分析員也看好以上的最新發展，他指出，鋼鐵石價格的調升幅度，基本上超越他們先前預測的30%。他認為，鋼鐵價格調升，無疑對本地綜合業者是好消息，隨著這項最新發展，他相信本地鋼鐵領域將進入「超級週期」。該分析員維持給予鋼鐵領域「增持」評級，不過，他暫時維持本地鋼鐵公司的盈利預測不變。
写于三月十三日二零零八年
鐵礦石價格大幅調高65%。鋼鐵股料水漲船高
20th Feb 2008
（吉隆坡19日訊）隨著數家主要亞洲鋼鐵廠一致同意，大幅調高鐵礦石價格65%，預料這將會令全球鋼鐵價格同步上揚，分析員因此大力唱好本地鋼鐵股。這些主要的亞洲鋼鐵製造商，包括浦項鋼鐵（POSCO）、新日本鋼鐵（NIPPON STEEL）及日本JFE鋼鐵，已經同意將2008年4月到09年3月份的鐵礦石結算價格，從原本的每噸72.11美元，提高到118.98美元，調升幅度達65%。
根據傳統，主要鋼鐵製造商與鐵礦石供應商之間的第一個大型合約，將會是全球價格的基準，因此，隨著上述三家鋼鐵公司同意新價格后，預料歐洲、北美及中國的主要供鐵公司，也將會同意類似的價格。
上漲成本或轉嫁消費者
分析員表示，雖然高額的鐵礦石成本，將會令鋼鐵製造商的生產成本高企，不過，由于目前全球市場對鋼鐵及鋼鐵製品的需求仍非常強勁，因此，鋼鐵製造商相信能夠將額外的成本，通過漲價的方式，轉嫁給最終消費者。在這種情況下，分析員認為，這些鋼鐵公司將能夠維持它們的賺幅。
鋼鐵業晉「超級週期」
現階段，研究分析員認為，鋼鐵製造領域的基本面仍維持強穩。他維持鋼鐵領域和鋼鐵股「超越大市」評級。
此外，分析員也看好以上的最新發展，他指出，鋼鐵石價格的調升幅度，基本上超越他們先前預測的30%。他認為，鋼鐵價格調升，無疑對本地綜合業者是好消息，隨著這項最新發展，他相信本地鋼鐵領域將進入「超級週期」。該分析員維持給予鋼鐵領域「增持」評級，不過，他暫時維持本地鋼鐵公司的盈利預測不變。
写于三月十三日二零零八年
Tuesday, May 06, 2008
吉屋出售（四）
产业市场的调查，看看无妨。就我个人而言，目前对产业股没什么兴趣。
Annual CEO property survey done by CH Williams, Talhar & Wong for 2008 and their views on the property market and drivers of it in 2008.
What will impact the industry in 2008?
In this survey, 93% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (73%) and robust stock market performance (73%).
What is to impact price movement in 2008?
In this survey, 76% of the CEOs surveyed felt that robust stock market performance had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by FIC guidelines (67%) and exemption of RPGT (67%).
What is to impact transaction volume in 2008?
In this survey, 96% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by robust stock market performance (83%) and flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (82%).
According to CH Williams, Talhar @ Wong, over the next six to twelve months, the larger and more popular retail centres are expected to perform well with increases in rental values and market prices as opposed to the older and more secondary centres. Also based on 4Q07’s Asia Retailer Sentiment Survey produced by Jones Lang Wootton, the momentum seen in 2007 will spill over to 2008. 92% of retailers also plan to expand in the next 12-months.
Annual CEO property survey done by CH Williams, Talhar & Wong for 2008 and their views on the property market and drivers of it in 2008.
What will impact the industry in 2008?
In this survey, 93% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (73%) and robust stock market performance (73%).
What is to impact price movement in 2008?
In this survey, 76% of the CEOs surveyed felt that robust stock market performance had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by FIC guidelines (67%) and exemption of RPGT (67%).
What is to impact transaction volume in 2008?
In this survey, 96% of the CEOs surveyed felt that exemption of RPGT had the most profound impact on the industry, followed by robust stock market performance (83%) and flexible monthly withdrawals by EPF contributors (82%).
According to CH Williams, Talhar @ Wong, over the next six to twelve months, the larger and more popular retail centres are expected to perform well with increases in rental values and market prices as opposed to the older and more secondary centres. Also based on 4Q07’s Asia Retailer Sentiment Survey produced by Jones Lang Wootton, the momentum seen in 2007 will spill over to 2008. 92% of retailers also plan to expand in the next 12-months.
Monday, May 05, 2008
巴菲特谈投资（三）
每年五月的第一个星期六，很多来自全世界的朝圣者将会向Omaha出发，他们的目的只有一个，出席Berkshire Hathaway Inc的年度股东大会。会中，投资者问了巴菲特许多的问题，巴菲特也一一的回复，他提醒投资者不要对Berkshire Hathaway有太高的回酬期望，因为公司在接下来几年的回酬可能低于10%。同时，他也不看好美金汇率。他也提醒投资人不要去预测经济走势，反而应该注重于个股的营运获利。不多说了，看看以下的几份报道吧！
The Star
5/4/2008
Buffett will be the centre of attention today at the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway Inc, his roughly US$200bil holding company.
Berkshire estimates that 30,000 to 32,000 people, up from 27,000 last year, will fill the Qwest Center in Omaha for what has become known as “Woodstock for Capitalists.”
Shareholders will listen to Buffett and his effervescent sidekick, 84-year-old Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger, answer questions on business, the economy and life.
Berkshire had a good year in 2007.
It boosted profit 20% to US$13.2bil, and revenue the same amount to US$118.2bil, despite increased competition in insurance and several of its more than 70 businesses hurting from the housing slump. Shares of Berkshire, meanwhile, rose 29%.
Buffett is worth US$62bil, making him the world’s richest person, Forbes magazine said. Most of that amount is in Berkshire stock, and all of that stock will someday go to charity.
Berkshire sells such items as bricks, candy, car insurance, carpets, ice cream, jewellery, knives, paint and underwear. About half its business comes from insurance and reinsurance.
The company ended the year with US$44.3 billion of cash, but has since agreed to spend some.
In March, it paid US$4.5 billion for three-fifths of Marmon Holdings Inc, whose products are used in construction and energy. Then on April 28, it deployed US$6.5 billion tied to Mars Inc’s purchase of chewing gum maker Wm Wrigley Jr Co.
Berkshire’s US$75 billion stock cache has included blue-chip names such as American Express Co, CocaCola Co Procter & Gamble Co and Wells Fargo & Co.
Buffett may weigh in on how politicians, regulators and greedy investors mess up the markets.
Shareholders may want to know more about Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp, a bond insurer that Buffett created late last year as rivals struggled with subprime mortgages.
Berkshire’s bond insurer quickly won “triple A” credit ratings.
Succession will also be on people’s minds. Buffett has said Berkshire has three internal candidates to replace him as chief executive officer, and four “young to middle-aged” candidates to become chief investment officer.
And Buffett could offer his views on the 2008 elections.
He has said he plans to support the Democratic Party, but has not endorsed either of its leading candidates for the presidency, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Even so, Buffett gets some things wrong.
Last year, he said subprime mortgages did not pose a “huge danger” to the economy, and that absent surges in unemployment and interest rates, “it’s unlikely that that factor triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy.”
Official festivities begin Friday evening, after Berkshire releases first quarter results.
Cocktails, food and very long lines will await shareholders visiting Borsheim’s, a Berkshire owned jeweller west of downtown that will hawk memorabilia such as a Berkshire Monopoly game, towels, and license plate frames.
The festivities end at Buffett favourite Gorat’s, which last year served 915 dinners on “Shareholder Sunday.”
Shareholders, meanwhile, will host their own events throughout the weekend. – Reuters
Buffett to investors: Think small
Lower your expectations, advised Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at Berkshire's annual meeting Saturday. They also answered questions ranging from succession plans to the Cubs.
Last Updated: May 3, 2008: 4:24 PM EDT
OMAHA (CNNMoney.com) -- In the Q&A session Saturday morning at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger repeatedly warned investors to lower their expectations. When a shareholder asked whether Buffett's recent purchases of publicly traded stocks were likely to generate returns greater than 7% to 10% over time, Buffett promptly said no.
"We would be very happy if we earned 10%, pre-tax" on the additions to Berkshire's equity portfolio, said Buffett. "Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock; it isn't going to happen. We'll get decent results over time, but not indecent results." Added Munger: "You can take what Warren said to the bank. We are very happy at making money at a rate in the future that's much less than the past... and I suggest that you adopt the same attitude."
"We think Berkshire is an attractive investment [at today's price]," said Buffett. "We don't think it's the most attractive in the world."
Both men made it clear that their preference now is to acquire 100% ownership of private businesses at a "fair" price and to increase BRK's interest in companies that get substantial portions of their earnings in non-U.S. currencies.
"We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in euros in France or Italy or sterling in the UK, because I don't have a feeling that those currencies are likely to depreciate against the dollar," said Buffett. "Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies.... I feel no need to hedge purchases of companies that earn profits in other currencies." Buffett added that major U.S. multinationals, like Coca-Cola, are a natural hedge against the dollar, since they earn most of their profits offshore -- which, he said, "will be a net plus over time."
Asked what's in store for the economy, Buffett said he doesn't have a clue and doesn't care.
"I haven't the faintest idea," he said. "We never talk about it, it never comes up in our board meetings or other discussions. We're not in that business [of economic forecasting], we don't know how to be in that business. If we knew where the economy was going, we'd do nothing but play the S&P futures market."
His simple point: As an investor, you don't need to predict the economic cycle (or even pay much attention to it). Instead, you should focus on evaluating individual businesses if you pick your own stocks -- or, simply buy the entire market in the form of an index fund. When a shareholder asked for the single best specific investment idea Buffett could recommend to an individual in his 30s, Buffett said: "I would just have it all in a very low-cost index fund from a reputable firm, maybe Vanguard. Unless I bought during a strong bull market, I would feel confident that I would outperform...and I could just go back and get on with my work."
In response to a similar question from an investor asking how Berkshire would invest differently if it had only a few million dollars to put to work, Buffett advised him to think small. "That would open up thousands of opportunities," said Buffett. Earlier this year there were "very mispriced bonds" that "we could buy nowhere near enough of to make a difference to Berkshire," but a smaller investor could have exploited. "Most of the opportunities would probably be in small stocks or in specialized bond situations."
From India to China
Asked whether Berkshire will seek to purchase entire private companies based in China or India, Buffett responded: "We would like to. If we get lucky, we'll buy one or two in the next three or four years. I don't know if it will be in China, India, Germany, the U.K. or Japan -- there's a lot of luck in that in terms of families thinking of us specifically.... But you will see the day that BRK owns businesses in both countries [India and China]."
Despite its huge cash hoard, Berkshire won't be paying a dividend anytime soon. "The test," said Buffett, "is whether you can continue to create more than $1 for every $1 you're retaining." He and Munger feel they still can put surplus cash to work and earn a higher return with it than shareholders could on their own, after tax, if BRK paid it out. "If we can turn $1 in dividends into $1.10 or $1.20 on a present-value basis, they're better off if we don't pay out. When the day comes, it should be paid out. But because we still have this ability to redistribute money in a tax-efficient way within the company, we can reallocate it," he said, where it will earn a higher return than shareholders may be able to on their own."
The Star
5/4/2008
Buffett will be the centre of attention today at the annual shareholder meeting for Berkshire Hathaway Inc, his roughly US$200bil holding company.
Berkshire estimates that 30,000 to 32,000 people, up from 27,000 last year, will fill the Qwest Center in Omaha for what has become known as “Woodstock for Capitalists.”
Shareholders will listen to Buffett and his effervescent sidekick, 84-year-old Berkshire Vice Chairman Charles Munger, answer questions on business, the economy and life.
Berkshire had a good year in 2007.
It boosted profit 20% to US$13.2bil, and revenue the same amount to US$118.2bil, despite increased competition in insurance and several of its more than 70 businesses hurting from the housing slump. Shares of Berkshire, meanwhile, rose 29%.
Buffett is worth US$62bil, making him the world’s richest person, Forbes magazine said. Most of that amount is in Berkshire stock, and all of that stock will someday go to charity.
Berkshire sells such items as bricks, candy, car insurance, carpets, ice cream, jewellery, knives, paint and underwear. About half its business comes from insurance and reinsurance.
The company ended the year with US$44.3 billion of cash, but has since agreed to spend some.
In March, it paid US$4.5 billion for three-fifths of Marmon Holdings Inc, whose products are used in construction and energy. Then on April 28, it deployed US$6.5 billion tied to Mars Inc’s purchase of chewing gum maker Wm Wrigley Jr Co.
Berkshire’s US$75 billion stock cache has included blue-chip names such as American Express Co, CocaCola Co Procter & Gamble Co and Wells Fargo & Co.
Buffett may weigh in on how politicians, regulators and greedy investors mess up the markets.
Shareholders may want to know more about Berkshire Hathaway Assurance Corp, a bond insurer that Buffett created late last year as rivals struggled with subprime mortgages.
Berkshire’s bond insurer quickly won “triple A” credit ratings.
Succession will also be on people’s minds. Buffett has said Berkshire has three internal candidates to replace him as chief executive officer, and four “young to middle-aged” candidates to become chief investment officer.
And Buffett could offer his views on the 2008 elections.
He has said he plans to support the Democratic Party, but has not endorsed either of its leading candidates for the presidency, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton.
Even so, Buffett gets some things wrong.
Last year, he said subprime mortgages did not pose a “huge danger” to the economy, and that absent surges in unemployment and interest rates, “it’s unlikely that that factor triggers anything of a massive nature in the general economy.”
Official festivities begin Friday evening, after Berkshire releases first quarter results.
Cocktails, food and very long lines will await shareholders visiting Borsheim’s, a Berkshire owned jeweller west of downtown that will hawk memorabilia such as a Berkshire Monopoly game, towels, and license plate frames.
The festivities end at Buffett favourite Gorat’s, which last year served 915 dinners on “Shareholder Sunday.”
Shareholders, meanwhile, will host their own events throughout the weekend. – Reuters
Buffett to investors: Think small
Lower your expectations, advised Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger at Berkshire's annual meeting Saturday. They also answered questions ranging from succession plans to the Cubs.
Last Updated: May 3, 2008: 4:24 PM EDT
OMAHA (CNNMoney.com) -- In the Q&A session Saturday morning at Berkshire Hathaway's annual meeting, CEO Warren Buffett and vice chairman Charlie Munger repeatedly warned investors to lower their expectations. When a shareholder asked whether Buffett's recent purchases of publicly traded stocks were likely to generate returns greater than 7% to 10% over time, Buffett promptly said no.
"We would be very happy if we earned 10%, pre-tax" on the additions to Berkshire's equity portfolio, said Buffett. "Anyone that expects us to come close to replicating the past should sell their stock; it isn't going to happen. We'll get decent results over time, but not indecent results." Added Munger: "You can take what Warren said to the bank. We are very happy at making money at a rate in the future that's much less than the past... and I suggest that you adopt the same attitude."
"We think Berkshire is an attractive investment [at today's price]," said Buffett. "We don't think it's the most attractive in the world."
Both men made it clear that their preference now is to acquire 100% ownership of private businesses at a "fair" price and to increase BRK's interest in companies that get substantial portions of their earnings in non-U.S. currencies.
"We are happy to invest in businesses that earn their money in euros in France or Italy or sterling in the UK, because I don't have a feeling that those currencies are likely to depreciate against the dollar," said Buffett. "Overall I think that the U.S. continues to follow policies that will make the dollar weaken against other major currencies.... I feel no need to hedge purchases of companies that earn profits in other currencies." Buffett added that major U.S. multinationals, like Coca-Cola, are a natural hedge against the dollar, since they earn most of their profits offshore -- which, he said, "will be a net plus over time."
Asked what's in store for the economy, Buffett said he doesn't have a clue and doesn't care.
"I haven't the faintest idea," he said. "We never talk about it, it never comes up in our board meetings or other discussions. We're not in that business [of economic forecasting], we don't know how to be in that business. If we knew where the economy was going, we'd do nothing but play the S&P futures market."
His simple point: As an investor, you don't need to predict the economic cycle (or even pay much attention to it). Instead, you should focus on evaluating individual businesses if you pick your own stocks -- or, simply buy the entire market in the form of an index fund. When a shareholder asked for the single best specific investment idea Buffett could recommend to an individual in his 30s, Buffett said: "I would just have it all in a very low-cost index fund from a reputable firm, maybe Vanguard. Unless I bought during a strong bull market, I would feel confident that I would outperform...and I could just go back and get on with my work."
In response to a similar question from an investor asking how Berkshire would invest differently if it had only a few million dollars to put to work, Buffett advised him to think small. "That would open up thousands of opportunities," said Buffett. Earlier this year there were "very mispriced bonds" that "we could buy nowhere near enough of to make a difference to Berkshire," but a smaller investor could have exploited. "Most of the opportunities would probably be in small stocks or in specialized bond situations."
From India to China
Asked whether Berkshire will seek to purchase entire private companies based in China or India, Buffett responded: "We would like to. If we get lucky, we'll buy one or two in the next three or four years. I don't know if it will be in China, India, Germany, the U.K. or Japan -- there's a lot of luck in that in terms of families thinking of us specifically.... But you will see the day that BRK owns businesses in both countries [India and China]."
Despite its huge cash hoard, Berkshire won't be paying a dividend anytime soon. "The test," said Buffett, "is whether you can continue to create more than $1 for every $1 you're retaining." He and Munger feel they still can put surplus cash to work and earn a higher return with it than shareholders could on their own, after tax, if BRK paid it out. "If we can turn $1 in dividends into $1.10 or $1.20 on a present-value basis, they're better off if we don't pay out. When the day comes, it should be paid out. But because we still have this ability to redistribute money in a tax-efficient way within the company, we can reallocate it," he said, where it will earn a higher return than shareholders may be able to on their own."
Sunday, May 04, 2008
全利双赢？（五）
QL Q2FY08年对年的营业额起了5%，净盈利起了34%。ROE维持在23%, DE有点偏高在90%。
海产加工与棕油榨取的营业额年对年的起了8%与36%。家禽养殖则跌了4%。虽然营业额起了，但海产加工与棕油榨取的税前盈利却比去年同季跌了5%与18%，反而是家禽养殖起了99%。根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额起而税前盈利是因为较低的售价。虽然棕油的价钱起了，但因为棕油榨取率（FFB）的下跌与较高的成本而使税前盈利下滑。家禽养殖的上升是因为较高的售价与成本控制。
之前提过的隐忧：
一．净盈利率低维持在6%。
二．超高的债务，目前的D/E是在90%的水平。
三．海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖都是竞争非常大的行业。
四．深海捕鱼与棕油榨取是季节性的行业，会受到气候的影响。
写于十一月二十二日二零零七年
海产加工与棕油榨取的营业额年对年的起了8%与36%。家禽养殖则跌了4%。虽然营业额起了，但海产加工与棕油榨取的税前盈利却比去年同季跌了5%与18%，反而是家禽养殖起了99%。根据管理层的解析，海产加工的营业额起而税前盈利是因为较低的售价。虽然棕油的价钱起了，但因为棕油榨取率（FFB）的下跌与较高的成本而使税前盈利下滑。家禽养殖的上升是因为较高的售价与成本控制。
之前提过的隐忧：
一．净盈利率低维持在6%。
二．超高的债务，目前的D/E是在90%的水平。
三．海产加工丶棕油榨取与家禽养殖都是竞争非常大的行业。
四．深海捕鱼与棕油榨取是季节性的行业，会受到气候的影响。
写于十一月二十二日二零零七年
Saturday, May 03, 2008
硬如钢铁（二）
ONASTEL Q4FY07的营业额年对年的起了6%，但季对季相对的跌了1%。净盈利在同时间却跌了3%与21%。根据公司的说法是因为原料起价的关系，尤其是废钢，以及铁矿现货价格的双级跳。虽然ONASTEL的管理层之前有提过2HFY07的业绩会来得比1HFY07差，但对这最后一季的15.0m净盈利还是有点失望的。
FY2007整年的营业额上扬了27%，但净盈利却只起了13%。全年的ROIC与ROE都起了1%分别来到了11%与12%。净现金为14 sen。净股息率 > 6%。值得注意的是净盈利率跌了1%，只剩下区区的6%。别忘了钢铁的价钱在2007年总共起了3次，看来钢铁原料的价格比钢铁的价格起得更快。
必须注意的风险：
一. 公司成长业绩不能持久，钢铁行业是属于循环性行业。
二. 政府的保护政策以及不允许钢铁起价以维持本国经济。
三. 营运与原料成本的调高，尤其是废钢丶煤丶铁矿石丶HRC将影响公司净利。
四. 钢铁行业需要非常大的资本开销。
写于二月十八日二零零八年
FY2007整年的营业额上扬了27%，但净盈利却只起了13%。全年的ROIC与ROE都起了1%分别来到了11%与12%。净现金为14 sen。净股息率 > 6%。值得注意的是净盈利率跌了1%，只剩下区区的6%。别忘了钢铁的价钱在2007年总共起了3次，看来钢铁原料的价格比钢铁的价格起得更快。
必须注意的风险：
一. 公司成长业绩不能持久，钢铁行业是属于循环性行业。
二. 政府的保护政策以及不允许钢铁起价以维持本国经济。
三. 营运与原料成本的调高，尤其是废钢丶煤丶铁矿石丶HRC将影响公司净利。
四. 钢铁行业需要非常大的资本开销。
写于二月十八日二零零八年
Friday, May 02, 2008
财报风云（一）
看财报，到底有什么用？
财务报表就像一家公司的成绩单。看懂之后，你可以知道公司的体质是否健康，并且据此作出投资决策。看懂财报可以帮助你了解企业经营的实况，降低投资风险。
没看懂财报就投资，比赌博还糟。你必须了解财务报表的重要性，也一定要看完财务报表，了解所有的财务优点与疑点后，才开始投资。
看懂财务报表可以让你投资时更安心。因为你可以及时了解公司亏盈，决定是否继续投资丶加码买进或卖出。
财务报表也是认识某行业很好的根据。拿几份不同公司的财报来比较，除了可以知道哪家公司赚钱，哪家赔钱之外，还可以看出一段期间之内，到底整个行业的表现如何？实在快速成长的路上，还是迈向衰退？了解行业展望，可以有效降低投资风险。
看不懂财报就去买股票，很可能会买到烂公司的股票，也就是地雷股。就算幸运躲过，也可能让你以过高的价格买进营运不好丶前景不佳的公司。
投资股票不看财务报表，就像去旅行不看地图，细读财务报表的投资人，可以从一些关键指标，看出一家公司的经营实况。
稍微懂得财务的人都知道，无论如何精准，财务报表都无法百分之百呈现公司的财务实况。但是，这不表示财报就不能相信。很多上市公司为了美化账面，会采取一些技巧，但这些技巧并非天衣无缝，偶尔还是有迹可循的。
在2007年，马股自爆发MEGAN与TRANMIL等股假财报弊案后，让投资人对财报的参考性产生怀疑。其实，投资者应该换个角度看；这些公司之所以被揭发，就是因为被查出不符合真实的情况，因此这起事件不仅不代表财报不能信任，而是告诉我们：要制造天衣无缝的假财报，其实难度是非常高的。
那上市公司财报哪里找？上网！就是取得上市公司财务报表最方便的管道。只要到大马证卷交易所成立的公开资讯观测站（http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com），就可以对所有上市公司的财务报表一目了然。
财报必须具备下列四大内容，包括：损益表丶资产负债表丶股东权益变动表，以及现金流量表。
财务报表就像一家公司的成绩单。看懂之后，你可以知道公司的体质是否健康，并且据此作出投资决策。看懂财报可以帮助你了解企业经营的实况，降低投资风险。
没看懂财报就投资，比赌博还糟。你必须了解财务报表的重要性，也一定要看完财务报表，了解所有的财务优点与疑点后，才开始投资。
看懂财务报表可以让你投资时更安心。因为你可以及时了解公司亏盈，决定是否继续投资丶加码买进或卖出。
财务报表也是认识某行业很好的根据。拿几份不同公司的财报来比较，除了可以知道哪家公司赚钱，哪家赔钱之外，还可以看出一段期间之内，到底整个行业的表现如何？实在快速成长的路上，还是迈向衰退？了解行业展望，可以有效降低投资风险。
看不懂财报就去买股票，很可能会买到烂公司的股票，也就是地雷股。就算幸运躲过，也可能让你以过高的价格买进营运不好丶前景不佳的公司。
投资股票不看财务报表，就像去旅行不看地图，细读财务报表的投资人，可以从一些关键指标，看出一家公司的经营实况。
稍微懂得财务的人都知道，无论如何精准，财务报表都无法百分之百呈现公司的财务实况。但是，这不表示财报就不能相信。很多上市公司为了美化账面，会采取一些技巧，但这些技巧并非天衣无缝，偶尔还是有迹可循的。
在2007年，马股自爆发MEGAN与TRANMIL等股假财报弊案后，让投资人对财报的参考性产生怀疑。其实，投资者应该换个角度看；这些公司之所以被揭发，就是因为被查出不符合真实的情况，因此这起事件不仅不代表财报不能信任，而是告诉我们：要制造天衣无缝的假财报，其实难度是非常高的。
那上市公司财报哪里找？上网！就是取得上市公司财务报表最方便的管道。只要到大马证卷交易所成立的公开资讯观测站（http://announcements.bursamalaysia.com），就可以对所有上市公司的财务报表一目了然。
财报必须具备下列四大内容，包括：损益表丶资产负债表丶股东权益变动表，以及现金流量表。
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)