个人觉得最近关于钢铁的好消息蛮多的，看来市场已开始看好钢铁股。以下报道取自星洲与The Edge，只取部分内容。
傳鋼條洋灰頂價將調高‧鋼鐵業盈利料激漲
2008-04-08
（吉隆坡）市場傳聞聯邦政府計劃提高鋼條與洋灰頂價，以符合市場競爭。分析員唱好這項計劃，看好在區域供應吃緊下，鋼鐵業者未來盈利可激漲。
其中，僑豐投資研究認為所有鋼鐵股評級都誘人，加上新措施可能提高盈利可見度，2008財政年本益比也只有單位數下，因此建議“加碼”評級。
大馬研究也认同鋼鐵業供需動力不斷提高，加上第9大馬計劃如雙軌電動火车與檳城第2大橋計劃推行可能推高需求，因此推薦“跑贏大市”。
貿工部宣佈將會針對本地鋼鐵領域做研究，以逐步開放本地鋼跌業，其中包括逐步移除鋼條與鋼坯頂價，以提高鋼鐵價格透明度。而未來更不排除廢除頂價制，而改用自動報價機制（APM）。
雖然上述計劃尚未成形，同時也未決定執行时间，不過分析員認為這項措施貸給鋼鐵業者的影響是正面的。
進入“超級週期”
僑豐研究表示，目前全球鋼坯供應短缺，加上中國將鋼坯出口稅調高至25%，加深區域供應吃緊，並讓鋼鐵業者進入“超級週期”的盛況。
“移除頂價不僅可幫助鋼鐵提煉商透過及時轉移成本，提高盈利可見度，而開放外國鋼鐵業者進口也不會侵蝕本地鋼鐵市佔率，因此市場鋼坯供需已不平衡，而外國鋼鐵業者還面臨運輸費提高問題，這有利本地業者在價格上享有優勢。”
大馬研究也不擔心政府可能延長從沙巴進口至半島的鋼條與洋灰AP的短暫發放時間。同時中國提高出口稅將會限制出口量，本地業者反而可“趁虛而入”，進軍更多外國市場。
同時，由於出口鋼鐵產品價格則不受控制，而一旦提高鋼鐵頂價，料不會影響鋼鐵業者的金融情況。
08-04-2008: Steel overweight amid possible ceiling price abolishment THE Malaysian steel industry could be moving towards the automated pricing mechanism (APM), with the possible abolishment of the ceiling price for domestic steel bars and billets, said AmResearch.
In a research note yesterday, it maintained an overweight call on the steel sector amidst improving demand/supply dynamics, while the potential dismantling of the ceiling price towards the APM, due to the widening local-regional pricing gap, implied further upside for domestic steel prices.
Quoting local news reports, AmResearch said the federal government was prepared to consider lifting the ceiling prices for steel bars and cement.
“While no timeframe has been imposed, the federal government acknowledges the need for competitive pricing for both steel and cement,” said the research house.
The current price of domestic steel bars and billets are RM2,278/metric tonne (mt) and RM1,918/mt, respectively.
It said in view of rising input costs, the abolishment of the steel price ceiling could finally move the domestic industry pricing structure towards the APM, similar to the cement industry, adding that major Japanese, Chinese and Korean millers had agreed to between a 65% and 71% increase in iron ore prices beginning this month.
AmResearch also said that domestic steel demand was expected to get a kick from the commencement of large ticket Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) jobs, such as the national electrified double-tracking project (Ipoh-Padang Besar), and the second Penang monorail.
The research house said it was not unduly concerned with the government’s move to extend the temporary issuance of approved permits (AP) for the importation of steel bars and cement for Sabah to contractors in Peninsular Malaysia.
Apart from rising international steel prices and escalating freight costs, it believed domestic millers had already proven their competitiveness, as reflected by the increasing penetration into export markets.
Meanwhile, an industry observer told The Edge that without a ceiling, steel prices could be at least RM600 higher than the current price.
He said the need of a ceiling price review was urgent, in order for the grey market for steel not to proliferate, adding that 9MP projects, which have been delayed due to changes in state governments, could be boosted by an abolishment of the ceiling.
“There is a stronger likelihood now the ceiling will be abolished. At least the government is willing to consider it now, when they weren’t before,” he said.
写于四月八日二零零八年
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