CIMB Research Report的报道。其实没什么新见解，钢铁的价钱应该会稳健至到年尾。就我个人而言，我想知道到底是钢铁的原料价钱起得比较快还是钢铁的售价会起得比较快，我相信接下来几季的钢铁公司季报就会有答案了。
Steel prices to remain high. In just three months, the price of steel scrap has gone up by more than 50% to about US$620 per tonne. The price of another main raw material, coking coal, is also on an uptrend.
Recently, BHP Billiton, the leading Australian miner, got steel millers to agree to triple its coking coal prices. Given the escalating raw material prices, we believe steel prices will remain high as millers will pass on the rising costs to their customers. With international steel prices likely to remain on their upward trajectory, we believe the earnings momentum of the local steel millers will be sustainable over the next 6-9 months.
Global demand remains robust. Admittedly, delays in various mega projects on the local front may dampen domestic demand. However, demand for steel remains robust in the international market. The International Iron and Steel Institute forecasts global apparent steel consumption to grow by 6.7% from 1,202mt in 2007 to 1,282m mt in 2008, buoyed by growth of emerging markets like China, India and the Middle East.
China to continue export curbs. Despite the attractive international prices, China’s Iron and Steel Association expect exports from China to fall from 63m tonnes in 2007 to about 36m tonnes this year. This is because average steel consumption in China is estimated to grow at a faster pace than production.
写于五月七日二零零八年
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